YYESIAV8

"the B727 excess is about to be fully trained out so the main reason we stopped hiring was to finish that process."

Don't think that is why we stopped hiring...down economy had more to do with that. But every former 727 who is able to go to training has started. Only ones left are those that "hurt" their shoulder.

Flaps50

FedEx Economic Update
March 31, 2014

We continue to see moderate economic growth. U.S. GDP is expected to increase 2.6% in 2014 after 1.9% growth in 2013. We expect GDP growth to increase to 3.0% in 2015, driven by investment (business and housing) and reduced fiscal drag. Consumer spending should gradually gain strength as the economy improves.

Our industrial production forecast is 3.4% for 2014 after 2.9% growth in 2013. Pent-up demand still exists as capital spending and manufacturing production have yet to recover to their pre-recession levels. Given the near-perfect correlation between business fixed investment and employment growth, it is important to have a policy environment encouraging additional capital spending.

Global GDP growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015. Europe and China show signs of stabilization, which should support better trade growth this year. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions in several emerging markets and energy prices.

I don't the company thinks the skies falling, 4th Qrt US GDP was way higher than the annualized 1.9% at 2.6%.

HKFlyr

The HK reserve and VTO manning is more than 50 percent of our lines...so that model isn't working here.

Hiring would be nice, but I don't think it will stop an excess out here to get the realignment they need and the ability to stop or minimize people on passover pay.

Flaps50

Hong Kong's such a small base by comparison it doesn't take much flying to reduce the manning requirement there. Right now 777s are flying a lot of inter-asia stuff too. That's got to have an effect on what your lines are looking like, and can't be that efficient.

I believe when they stopped hiring last time the exact reason at the time stated by management was the 1/2 year early retirement of the B727 and the need to absorb those guys.

slaveship

No excess and we need to get down to 3800 pilots before any hope of hiring.

IMHO.

Albief15

Flaps50,

You can go yell on the street corner all you want "they are going to hire!" It won't help.

I have had a few poolies ask "so what do you think?" I remind them the last poolies I helped got a call for class 4.5 years later. While I am not an MBA, nor even a SIG or PSIT guy, it would be remarkably easy for me to see how I could fly another 2-3 days per month without going over the min days off. I haven't had a BLG + line in months (by choice), and get the buy up consistently. You can add a trip to most of the MEM lines and absorb a LOT of flying. During 4a2b, reserve utilization went up, not down. Right now, guys are flying less on reserve, which tells me there isn't a whole lot of flying being held back. I'm sure the company can play games if they choose, but I really don't think they are all that worried about scaring us about the economy. They are worried about tweaking down costs, period.

Speculation is generally harmless, and APC is 90% fun and hot air anyway. That said, a handful of guys are living on pins and needles right now. In the meantime, United, Delta, American, and US Air as well as some others are hiring. I imagine most guys would rather be here than there…but what if the phone doesn't ring for another 12, 18, 24, or 36 months? I'd hate to see anyone pass on the potential job of a lifetime (and a legacy job IS a job of a lifetime--maybe not as good as what we currently have but better than anything they are leaving…) because of the false hope that good news from FedEx is "…just around the corner…" It might be. But it might also be years. And since we don't know, I just want to make sure any lurkers know the dangers of waiting around for an invitation to this dance. There may be some other parties down the street worth looking into...

CloudSailor

Great advice to current and future FDX poolies Albie.

Hiring will resume at some point, but from what I have seen, very few people accurately know when that will take place (and they are not line pilots). Average line pilots won't find out when hiring is taking place until several weeks out at best, once everything is all setup for newhire classes and calls for interviews begin again. Everything else is speculation, which is fun, but not good for basing career decisions on.

To current/future poolies, applicants, and wannabes, even if FDX is your top choice, do NOT pass up on a class date, or opportunities to interview, at your 2nd, 3rd, 4th....choices. As they say, until you're sitting in class with a purple ID and seniority number, there are zero guarantees.

...but to add to speculation, I (as line pilot in the dark) of course also hope hiring resumes soon, and believe there will be some form of it by fall for the 757 in MEM and CGN.

Barnstormer

Here's some advice. Go with the first Major that hires you. Move to a domicile you want to live in. Enjoy life.

Gunpig

Albie,

Are you sure about this?

As far as the MD is concerned, all the MEM FOs I know on reserve are getting worked much closer to RLG. The company made a shift in the MEM MD FO bid pack about 3 months ago practically halfing the reserve lines. I think we had roughly 90 in Apr for over 600 FOs. Word I have heard is the flying is being spread around with accepted minimal buy up to prevent reserves from sitting and not being flown. This is supposition as I don't have access to actual RLG utilization numbers. Any shortage in reserve manning is being solved with draft

I believe the Md is much thinner than is being advertised (at least at current fleet level) and for this reason I'll be surprised if there is more than a -1 excess in MEM FO

I would not be at all surprised if there was a SMALL amount of hiring in the summer to round out the 757 manning.

I could be wrong, but hopefully am right

olly

Great advice!!! If you get an subsequent offer you can always resign & go with the next best thing.