FR8TFLYER

If they are dumb enough to play that game then they lose the MOU. I think if they wanted to really furlough they would have sent the letters last week.

UPSFO4LIFE

I actually think they are willng to furlough, and the union knows it. If the EB and specifically BT thought they we bluffing, they would never have offered to extend the MOU and have future sign-up dates. They would have told Lekites to take it or leave it. BT did not support the MOU before taking office and I believe, that now that he is directly involved, knows the company is not bluffing. I don't know if a furlough will happen, but I also don't think the company is bluffing.

JustUnderPar

If the notices go out the MOU is done. Good bye savings. So that will not work if they try that and cancel it later. Plus all the reasons I mentioned. Its a win-win for everyone if they keep the MOU going.

If they send out furlough notices to the pilots it signals to investors that the air business ( i.e. their highest risk/profit) is shrinking. Fedex is where to move the money (they seem to be expanding or taking what we are willing to give up). So I dont buy that one either. UPS knows how much it costs to regain market share once it is lost. They are playing a delicate game. That is why the CEO and the BOD's get all that money right

I agree it is a game though. I think they want the FQS's left alone. I think they want control over bid conflicting and preferential bidding. At least one of those.

Of course I think you are trying to smoke out FrontSeat....I am sure he is lurking!!

Vman

UPS has been extremely profitable for a long time. In the mid 1990, while UPS was still private, most corporations underwent a phase of reengineering management, UPS did not. Now it appear that they are taking a look at individuals who don't actually move boxes...

767pilot

I hate to say it, but I buy the company's argument that they can save more by furloughing than we have put on the table. Even ignoring their moving of the goal posts, we came close, but we didn't make it. Those were the metrics that both sides agreed to

You are right, if the MOU dies, the dollars that we put up come off the table. They claim that they can save more money by furloughing than we are offering. I think we bought off on that logic right from the start. Suppose that later they decide to cancel some of the furloughs and offer us RDG's and J/S to save a few more jobs. I think we would bite on that.

I hear the argument about them losing flexibility to spool up if the economy turns. How long would it take to bring someone back and put them through training in an MD or 74? Two months maybe? I don't think the recovery is going to turn on a dime. Do you think that there is a circumstance where they would need to spool up quicker than that?

While we weren't watching, our whole network changed. The efficient became the VERY efficient by using bigger aircraft and the new worldport capacity. Our package mix changed too. The second and third day products act like accumulators which flex up and down to provide more or less next day lift as needed.

We have a long way to go to recover. I'm quite sure that they have taken all of this into account and will be willing to forgo any surprise increases in the need for lift. Even still, we have extra planes out there flying charters that would be able to be brought back to fill these needs.

I really think that these network decisions were made independently of any thoughts of the pilot group. We're an after thought to the management committees that make such plans. Like you say, that is why they make the big bucks. Those of us that have been here a while have seen the flight ops side deal with some pretty major increases in volume over short periods of time. They'll be able to handle it again if they need to.

Who knows what wall street will think. Often they see lay offs as a good sign. Job cuts get announced and it shows the street that the company may be shrinking, but they are cutting expenses to maintain maximum profitablity. Maybe FDX gets punished for not making cuts in a shrinking environment? If the market is shrinking, or has shrunk, it hasn't made much difference in market share for either company. getting rid of extra pilots is not going to change the market share.

1800 middle management job cuts were announced last week, a couple of dispatchers were let go, and there have been a lot of cuts among those that drive or work by the conveyor belts. Politically it may be difficult for our group to skate by unscathed.

So why then do I have any optimism? Until it's over, it's not over. They didn't just walk in and say, "sorry boys, you didn't make it. Got a few hundred postage stamps we could borrow?" Until the deed is done, there is hope.

JustUnderPar

I agree with what you are saying 767. I believe that if indeed UPS does send out furlough letters this time it is REAL(No bluffs). If it happens I would anticipate to be on the street for 3-4 years at least.....otherwise the savings will not be realized.

Who knows what the economy will do. If I knew that I would not need to work for a living

It will be interesting how the IPA handles this if it happens.

I am optimistic as well.

767pilot

>>It will be interesting how the IPA handles this if it happens.

What would you like to see the IPA do? The idea of a stipend has been batted around but I don't think that would pass. Cobra help would. Got any other ideas? I don't think that the union needs 200 more staffers. BTW, I think the number will be a lot lower in any event

Buck92

I'd like to see the IPA enforce the JA/OT ban... nothing more, nothing less.

Archie Bunker

Define "enforce."

Just curious...what exactly do you think the union can do to our "esteemed brothers" that decide to go ahead and pick up OT and JAs during a furlough?

My guess is: absolutely nothing.

JustUnderPar

Just saying that it will be interesting what their reaction will be. Not suggesting anything. Everyone thinks they know what the new EB will do, I personally don't have clue. What are they going to do about the FQS? If we furlough 12-15% of the pilot force how can you tell an arbitration board that these guys "manage" when they are really flying the line. What are they going when the company starts moving people around the system when the furlough language become effective (how senior are you?) Gonna be some surprised people. How about when contract enforcement? (BT is BIG on this one).....just to name a few.

A stipend will not work. If you cannot get everyone at the IPA to give one RDG to prevent a furlough then what else is their to say. Plenty of history on how stipends don't work at other carriers for this one.

Cobra would help, but there are too many people that get 100+ hrs per PP and it is still not enough for them to get by. Giving a furloughed pilot anything like cobra out of their paycheck will be labeled as socialism....or you will hear the common phrase "that is the way this industry works"!

I absolutely think that IF they furlough it will be at least 300 (maybe more) people. To think otherwise is not economical with the numbers on the table. If they do it it will also be for at least 3+ years. Their economic projections are pretty good. Look at their balance sheets over the last 100 years. When have they ever lost money......ah never! The fact that they threw out 2015 is almost a little scary.