UPS displacement bid?
11-16-2009, 07:22 PM
#32
Freightmama!
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: 757/767 FO
Posts: 2,880
That whole thing was a mess. Yes, other airlines have parked fleets of three man airplanes and then told the age 60's that they no longer had a job (UAL). As we were having people hit 60 while we had the 8's, 74's, and 72's it was no problem slipping the guys into FE seats. Once filled though, teh problem came with what do you do to the next guy. Easy to say, "no seat, see ya", but what if he was senior. Should he have had bumping rights? I'm sure that the company tried to do it as cheaply as possible, and I'm fairly certain that our contract forced things to go as they did. Remember, we still had three man planes and >60 engineers when the rule changed to let people fly in window seats.
Any FDX guys want to chime in with how it happens there? Did you furlough >60 guys back then when the engineer seats were filled, give them bumping rights, or just add to the head count of engineers?
Any FDX guys want to chime in with how it happens there? Did you furlough >60 guys back then when the engineer seats were filled, give them bumping rights, or just add to the head count of engineers?
11-16-2009, 07:25 PM
#33
Freightmama!
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: 757/767 FO
Posts: 2,880
Of course, the Age 60 rule was repealed in December of '07, but I had suffered a heart attack and was at home, deciding if it was worth it to return to flying. When the rule change happened, I asked the FAA what I needed to do to return to flying status (to regain my medical), as I was thinking about returning to the MD-11 Captains seat. However, a combination of things changed my mind and I decided to remain on the sidelines. And I can truthfully say that with all that's been happening within both FedEx and the airline industry, I glad that I did.
JJ
11-17-2009, 09:29 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: MD-11 F/O UPS
Posts: 175
UPS Corporate Investor
A buddy of mine is a buy side equity analyst for a company that is fairly heavily into UPS as a part of their transportation portfolio. This is their UPS -specific analyst' synopsis of our 3q results:
"UPS reported Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. consensus of $0.52. Revenue was
in-line, falling 15% and EBIT was slightly higher than consensus,
falling 43%. UPS continues to lose share in package, an oligopoly
business in which its holds about 70% of industry EBIT in the US, as
average daily parcel (ground) volumes were down 3.9% YoY vs. FedEx's
10.1% growth in the August quarter. This is UPS' most profitable
business line and heightens in my mind the reasons why it should
acquire European parcel business TNT (as outlined in the BIT team's
M&A project). FedEx won't stop growing this business unless the
Teamsters-sponsored litigation changes the game for this unit and even
if that happened, I believe FedEx could bring this model in from a
contractor-driven model to an employee-driven model. UPS is expecting
Q4 EPS of $0.58 to $0.65 vs. consensus of $0.63, so the market was
nonplussed with the near-term outlook, but I believe earnings power is
easily above $4.00 per share over an intermediate time horizon and
that long-term expectations in the stock are too low. UPS' near-term
outlook dovetails into the longer-term fundamentals I have estimated
in the range of scenarios that form my CTV of $74.25, up 31%. I think
how quickly the stock can achieve this is subject to the near-term
trajectory of earnings, which I believe will turn positive by Q1 2010.
I am maintaining my $2.21 and $3.07 EPS estimates (26x and 18x) vs.
consensus of $2.14 and $2.63 (26x and 22x) with FCF yields of 8.9% and
5.4% on FCF per share of $5.05 and $3.08 with a 3.2% dividend yield."
Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.
Marc
"UPS reported Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. consensus of $0.52. Revenue was
in-line, falling 15% and EBIT was slightly higher than consensus,
falling 43%. UPS continues to lose share in package, an oligopoly
business in which its holds about 70% of industry EBIT in the US, as
average daily parcel (ground) volumes were down 3.9% YoY vs. FedEx's
10.1% growth in the August quarter. This is UPS' most profitable
business line and heightens in my mind the reasons why it should
acquire European parcel business TNT (as outlined in the BIT team's
M&A project). FedEx won't stop growing this business unless the
Teamsters-sponsored litigation changes the game for this unit and even
if that happened, I believe FedEx could bring this model in from a
contractor-driven model to an employee-driven model. UPS is expecting
Q4 EPS of $0.58 to $0.65 vs. consensus of $0.63, so the market was
nonplussed with the near-term outlook, but I believe earnings power is
easily above $4.00 per share over an intermediate time horizon and
that long-term expectations in the stock are too low. UPS' near-term
outlook dovetails into the longer-term fundamentals I have estimated
in the range of scenarios that form my CTV of $74.25, up 31%. I think
how quickly the stock can achieve this is subject to the near-term
trajectory of earnings, which I believe will turn positive by Q1 2010.
I am maintaining my $2.21 and $3.07 EPS estimates (26x and 18x) vs.
consensus of $2.14 and $2.63 (26x and 22x) with FCF yields of 8.9% and
5.4% on FCF per share of $5.05 and $3.08 with a 3.2% dividend yield."
Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.
Marc
11-18-2009, 05:25 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: DC-8 756/767
Posts: 1,144
Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.
Marc
Marc
11-18-2009, 07:21 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,931
If UPS management furloughs, can they handle the lack of overtime?
It's risky to try and predict what the pilot group will do in a furlough scenario.
If UPS is anything like FedEx, they must be surprised by every up cycle and have to train like crazy to keep up. That cycle is approaching.
I think they want another MOU, not a furlough. MUCH cheaper and low risk.
It's risky to try and predict what the pilot group will do in a furlough scenario.
If UPS is anything like FedEx, they must be surprised by every up cycle and have to train like crazy to keep up. That cycle is approaching.
I think they want another MOU, not a furlough. MUCH cheaper and low risk.
11-18-2009, 09:34 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: DC-8 756/767
Posts: 1,144
I have no doubt they want another MOU. A furlough is not good for either side as I see it. At the same time, UPS is not going to continue to pay for employees to sit around and do nothing. Who do you think they are? The US government?
11-18-2009, 09:41 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Spartan
Posts: 3,652
They run this place as inefficiently as the gov't at times...
11-18-2009, 12:42 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: MD11 CPT
Posts: 1,077
A buddy of mine is a buy side equity analyst for a company that is fairly heavily into UPS as a part of their transportation portfolio. This is their UPS -specific analyst' synopsis of our 3q results:
"UPS reported Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. consensus of $0.52. Revenue was
in-line, falling 15% and EBIT was slightly higher than consensus,
falling 43%. UPS continues to lose share in package, an oligopoly
business in which its holds about 70% of industry EBIT in the US, as
average daily parcel (ground) volumes were down 3.9% YoY vs. FedEx's
10.1% growth in the August quarter. This is UPS' most profitable
business line and heightens in my mind the reasons why it should
acquire European parcel business TNT (as outlined in the BIT team's
M&A project). FedEx won't stop growing this business unless the
Teamsters-sponsored litigation changes the game for this unit and even
if that happened, I believe FedEx could bring this model in from a
contractor-driven model to an employee-driven model. UPS is expecting
Q4 EPS of $0.58 to $0.65 vs. consensus of $0.63, so the market was
nonplussed with the near-term outlook, but I believe earnings power is
easily above $4.00 per share over an intermediate time horizon and
that long-term expectations in the stock are too low. UPS' near-term
outlook dovetails into the longer-term fundamentals I have estimated
in the range of scenarios that form my CTV of $74.25, up 31%. I think
how quickly the stock can achieve this is subject to the near-term
trajectory of earnings, which I believe will turn positive by Q1 2010.
I am maintaining my $2.21 and $3.07 EPS estimates (26x and 18x) vs.
consensus of $2.14 and $2.63 (26x and 22x) with FCF yields of 8.9% and
5.4% on FCF per share of $5.05 and $3.08 with a 3.2% dividend yield."
Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.
Marc
"UPS reported Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. consensus of $0.52. Revenue was
in-line, falling 15% and EBIT was slightly higher than consensus,
falling 43%. UPS continues to lose share in package, an oligopoly
business in which its holds about 70% of industry EBIT in the US, as
average daily parcel (ground) volumes were down 3.9% YoY vs. FedEx's
10.1% growth in the August quarter. This is UPS' most profitable
business line and heightens in my mind the reasons why it should
acquire European parcel business TNT (as outlined in the BIT team's
M&A project). FedEx won't stop growing this business unless the
Teamsters-sponsored litigation changes the game for this unit and even
if that happened, I believe FedEx could bring this model in from a
contractor-driven model to an employee-driven model. UPS is expecting
Q4 EPS of $0.58 to $0.65 vs. consensus of $0.63, so the market was
nonplussed with the near-term outlook, but I believe earnings power is
easily above $4.00 per share over an intermediate time horizon and
that long-term expectations in the stock are too low. UPS' near-term
outlook dovetails into the longer-term fundamentals I have estimated
in the range of scenarios that form my CTV of $74.25, up 31%. I think
how quickly the stock can achieve this is subject to the near-term
trajectory of earnings, which I believe will turn positive by Q1 2010.
I am maintaining my $2.21 and $3.07 EPS estimates (26x and 18x) vs.
consensus of $2.14 and $2.63 (26x and 22x) with FCF yields of 8.9% and
5.4% on FCF per share of $5.05 and $3.08 with a 3.2% dividend yield."
Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.
Marc
In principle I agree with you, but never underestimate UPS' ability to step over dollars to pick up dimes, cut it's nose off to spite it's face and blow it's foot off while aiming at a duck overhead. They may well initially announce a furlough to goad/panic us into either pre-contract or normal contract negotiation concessions to save our own, then using reserves, overstuffed lines and management pilots to pick up the slack, then rescind the furlough once they get concessions. This is a company who gave up hundreds of millions unnecessarily during Teamsters out of both sheer ego/face and a desire to get ahold of the Teamsters pension fund. They are both diabolical and moronic at the same time...no small feat.
I still keep trying to individually (so as not to challenge/make one lose face) encourage those who didn't give the first time to at least give ONE lousy RDG, perhaps parlaying it into mucho time off...most will never really miss the money but will long remember the vacation...or not.
But I certainly don't think any of you guys should give one more dime...this afterall ain't no hobby.
Last edited by Sideshow Bob; 11-18-2009 at 07:27 PM.
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