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Old 03-09-2009, 10:06 AM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by Captain Cook
I personally think a better number to look at would be the number of pilots that are 64 and above starting starting in September because they will not be around for peak in 2010. You can add this number to the amount of guys that UPS furloughs in September 2009.

Also, the requirement of having a pilot under 60 flying with a pilot over 60 is going to present a huge problem for UPS if they furlough 300, because that will wipe many of the young guys out of Anchorage.

I'm planning on being furloughed, but I think UPS is taking a big chance that they won't be able to make service.
Your argument has one hole in it. If the "new IPA" guys are furloughed they will be replaced with "other IPA" guys who are also under the age of 60.

UPS has probably done their homework in regards to actually how many they want to furlough. Then they probably added 30-50% and threw it as a hot potato to the IPA and said lets see what we can get in concessions.

If they don't have a plan to deal with the amount of guys they are planning on furloughing then they have absolutely zero business acumen.

Just my two bits..
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Old 03-09-2009, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by bifff15
Your argument has one hole in it. If the "new IPA" guys are furloughed they will be replaced with "other IPA" guys who are also under the age of 60.

UPS has probably done their homework in regards to actually how many they want to furlough. Then they probably added 30-50% and threw it as a hot potato to the IPA and said lets see what we can get in concessions.

If they don't have a plan to deal with the amount of guys they are planning on furloughing then they have absolutely zero business acumen.

Just my two bits..
Yep, I totally agree with you there - UPS certainly knows how to run a company and they have certainly done their homework.

As far as the fact of UPS replacing old with new up in Alaska, I agree also. The point that I was making is the fact that UPS will be losing every pilot that is 64 years old and greater plus the pilots that they furlough in September 2009. They won't have them available for peak 2010 - unless they plan a short furlough.

I think a good number to figure is the # of guys that are 64 and above starting in September, not 65.
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Old 03-09-2009, 12:12 PM
  #63  
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Crewmembers and 65.
What I get.

Currently..........................35
Additions to go this year.......5
65th Birthday in 2010..........28
65th Birthday in 2011..........49
65th Birthday in 2012..........54
65th Birthday in 2013..........49
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Old 03-09-2009, 12:24 PM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by Roberto
Crewmembers and 65.
What I get.

Currently..........................35
Additions to go this year.......5
65th Birthday in 2010..........28
65th Birthday in 2011..........49
65th Birthday in 2012..........54
65th Birthday in 2013..........49
Roberto,
That is why am getting current numbers, since the juniority data is for age 60. That means they show high now till 2013, then the rate will show higher for 2012 through around 2016 and then pickup at the rate with 5 year shift. The IPA data will do this for us and save the tedious counts.
UPS has all the same stuff.

Last edited by SaltyDog; 03-09-2009 at 12:36 PM.
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Old 03-09-2009, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by SaltyDog
Roberto,
That is why am getting current numbers, since the juniority data is for age 60. That means they show high now till 2013, then the rate will show higher for 2012 through around 2016 and then pickup at the rate with 5 year shift. The IPA data will do this for us and save the tedious counts.
UPS has all the same stuff.
The counts are pretty easy, after you've pasted the 01Feb09 Seniority List into Excel. Change the text to columns, and then sort by age.

I've got 9 more days of RSCP this month. Pretty much planning on getting released each day.
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Old 03-09-2009, 12:50 PM
  #66  
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How many older than age 65 will be forced to retire if UPS parks the DC8s in September? If they park the DC8, every FE age-64 and greater will be forced to retire, I would think.

EDIT: I just went through and counted and it looks like about 50-55 guys will be forced to retire and won't be retrained on anything if the DC8 is parked in September since they are either >65 or they are already 64.

Does it seem like the plan is to park all the DC8s in 2009?
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Old 03-09-2009, 08:13 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by Captain Cook
How many older than age 65 will be forced to retire if UPS parks the DC8s in September? If they park the DC8, every FE age-64 and greater will be forced to retire, I would think.

EDIT: I just went through and counted and it looks like about 50-55 guys will be forced to retire and won't be retrained on anything if the DC8 is parked in September since they are either >65 or they are already 64.

Does it seem like the plan is to park all the DC8s in 2009?

No, they won't force them to retire. They will probably just keep one DC8 as a "spare" and be "fat" on FE's. I mean, the company has just made it so easy for these guys (the guys that hate them the most) to stick around and get back into the left/right seat, so why stop now?
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:22 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by UPSFO4LIFE

And for all you people who think we are on the verge of a depression, should pick up a book on the subject. When we get to 25% unemployment, then you can begin to talk. If that happens, I don't think there will be a need for either UPS or Fedex next day Air. We may have 300 pilots total on the list, and I will be eating dinner at the local church and living in a van down by the river!
I found a few definitions of depression and actually a few fit. The 25% unemployment is the peak of unemployment for the "Great Depression" but I don't think anyone has a number associated with a general depression. One indicator is said to be a GDP of greater than a 10% decline. One factoid that I recently discovered was that all periods of economic declines prior to the 1930's were referred to as depressions.
  • a mental state characterized by a pessimistic sense of inadequacy and a despondent lack of activity
  • a long-term economic state characterized by unemployment and low prices and low levels of trade and investment
  • natural depression: a sunken or depressed geological formation
  • sad feelings of gloom and inadequacy
  • a period during the 1930s when there was a worldwide economic depression and mass unemployment
  • low: an air mass of lower pressure; often brings precipitation; "a low moved in over night bringing sleet and snow"
  • depressive disorder: a state of depression and anhedonia so severe as to require clinical intervention
  • a concavity in a surface produced by pressing; "he left the impression of his fingers in the soft mud"
  • angular distance below the horizon (especially of a celestial object)
  • pushing down; "depression of the space bar on the typewriter"
We may not be in a depression but for some of the 300 UPS pilots (as well as others furloughed right now) it might feel like one.

Cheers!
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:37 AM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by Avg Joe
???

28,000 fewer block hours, dozens of acft parked, volume down 5-10%, mechanics furloughed, part-time ground pounders fired, full-time Teamsters laid off... do you see a pattern FR8K9?

Do you read the newspaper about the huge number of job losses and bankruptcies outside of UPS?

"allow this to happen"? You are confused and have grossly unrealistic expectations regarding the power of a union, IMO.

Joe
Maybe his point is that if you have the "don't give an inch" approach, then we are putting people on the street, in bankruptcy, divorced, etc

I want a good contract to come back to, so I don't want to see everything given up either, but you can have snap backs and other things to assure not losing in the end.
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:52 AM
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UPS is not facing Bankruptcy. There will be NO concessions.
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