IPA furloughs gone for five years
03-08-2009, 09:00 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2005
Position: 757/767
Posts: 1,128
Wow!
I agree that predicting what the domestic/global economy might look like 3 YEARS into the future is murky, but the 6 different publications I read each week ALL AGREE the recession/depression only deepens over the next 3 MONTHS. Morgan Stanley this week is warning of a DEPRESSION significantly worse than the 1930's. Given the economic data and the 6-month lag any stimulus requires to become apparent (Econ 101), I am personally ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT in predicting our economic situation will look WORSE in 3 months! Call me an idiot if you wish.
Joe
I agree that predicting what the domestic/global economy might look like 3 YEARS into the future is murky, but the 6 different publications I read each week ALL AGREE the recession/depression only deepens over the next 3 MONTHS. Morgan Stanley this week is warning of a DEPRESSION significantly worse than the 1930's. Given the economic data and the 6-month lag any stimulus requires to become apparent (Econ 101), I am personally ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT in predicting our economic situation will look WORSE in 3 months! Call me an idiot if you wish.
Joe
03-08-2009, 09:11 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Leftof longitudinal
Posts: 1,899
The IPA told a potential furlough that he could be gone for 5 years.
If the IPA is telling guys to plan on being furloughed for five years, and we as an organization allow this to happen to our brothers and sisters like 'jungle' and 'average joe' suggest, don't be surprised if these guys take a job in management if offered.
I would, because it's obvious that this group isn't worth a
If the IPA is telling guys to plan on being furloughed for five years, and we as an organization allow this to happen to our brothers and sisters like 'jungle' and 'average joe' suggest, don't be surprised if these guys take a job in management if offered.
I would, because it's obvious that this group isn't worth a
Did you call the EB?
Patently, there is no 'IPA' telling anyone that anyone should 'plan on being furloughed for five years'. Perhaps the college students hanging out on the first floor were quoted by mistake?<g>
Posting pure second or third hand speculation and then without calling and asking anyone on the EB, coming to a conclusion as to the efficacy of their intent is irresponsible.
Other than that Mrs.Lincoln, how was the play?
03-08-2009, 09:11 PM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2009
Posts: 101
If I remember correctly, the house is having a hearing on March 12th on relaxing the mark to market rules for a year or so.
I think you will see a rally in the financials this week, but I don't think it will be a long term solution. Also, if the financial stocks move positive this week, I would be betting on a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news situation with bank stocks and financials on Friday 13th.
It wouldn't be a trade I would be comfortable making. I'd even consider buying during the week, then selling after the meeting. But I've lost my butt too many times in the market to mess with this this week.
I think you will see a rally in the financials this week, but I don't think it will be a long term solution. Also, if the financial stocks move positive this week, I would be betting on a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news situation with bank stocks and financials on Friday 13th.
It wouldn't be a trade I would be comfortable making. I'd even consider buying during the week, then selling after the meeting. But I've lost my butt too many times in the market to mess with this this week.
03-08-2009, 09:12 PM
#54
With The Resistance
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Burning the Agitprop of the Apparat
Posts: 6,191
Alright AJ up to this point iwas thinking you were making a great argument until you brought up morgan stanley and that just killed it. Those idiots predicted oil at 250 in march of 08 for the summer, Well we saw were that got us. I'm not an optimist rather a realist, Just have some faith and let me give you a little secret. WATCH THE MARKET ON MARCH 12th.
Text Size Mar.06
6:17 PM ET Friday, 6 Mar 2009
UPDATE: Stocks Could Skyrocket After March 12th
Posted By: Lee Brodie
Topics:Stock Market | Stock Picks
Sectors:Financial Services
Investors such as Jon Najarian are hopeful that stocks could soar next week. They say we could see an explosion to the upside after a meeting scheduled for March 12th.
On that date, a House financial services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs.
Karen Finerman has long been an advocate of putting these rules on hiatus for a while and “letting the banks breathe.”
If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, optionMonster Jon Najarian thinks the stock market could explode. On Wednesday he told us, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.”
And he went on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.”
Background
U.S. industry groups have urged the SEC and FASB to significantly alter or suspend the accounting rule, saying it is undermining the government's multibillion-dollar effort to stabilize the financial sector.
Mark-to-market accounting requires assets to be valued at current market prices. Some banks say it forces them to mark down assets to artificially low prices in the current financial crisis, even when banks intend to hold the assets past the current reporting period.
03-09-2009, 03:32 AM
#55
Libertarian Resistance
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 757 FO
Posts: 1,057
31 Dec 09: 45 crewmembers 65 or older
31 Dec 10: 27 more
31 Dec 11: 50 more
31 Dec 12: 53 more
31 Dec 13: 49 more
Don't bet the farm on these numbers as they were done manually and with the older seniority list. Still, I'd think that they aren't too far off.
WW
Last edited by Winged Wheeler; 03-09-2009 at 09:13 AM. Reason: technical correction
03-09-2009, 07:38 AM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Posts: 138
In Sep 2009 we'll have exactly 37 people on the current sen list that are over 65.
End of Sep 2011, (if they all stayed) we'd have 99 people on the current list that are over 65.
Word
End of Sep 2011, (if they all stayed) we'd have 99 people on the current list that are over 65.
Word
03-09-2009, 08:32 AM
#57
Banned
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 540
Don't despair guys. I know of a man who immigrated to the US from Kenya as a child and despite having a zero balance in his debit account just seven short years ago and never in his life holding a nine to five job, he has managed to gain employment in a very high executive position. He is many times a millionaire now and even has several private jets.
Hard work and honesty can get us where we want to go!
Hard work and honesty can get us where we want to go!
03-09-2009, 09:52 AM
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2009
Posts: 101
Also, the requirement of having a pilot under 60 flying with a pilot over 60 is going to present a huge problem for UPS if they furlough 300, because that will wipe many of the young guys out of Anchorage.
I'm planning on being furloughed, but I think UPS is taking a big chance that they won't be able to make service.
03-09-2009, 09:54 AM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: DC-8 756/767
Posts: 1,144
Are you kidding me? What planet are you living on?
The government came out and said they expected unemployment to PEAK at the 7.5-8.5 range. WE ARE ALREADY THERE and still haven't hit the bottom. Unemployment is going to go over 10% easily and very soon too. That means less money spent on packages because nobody is buying anything and more foreclosures are coming as well.
The DOW is at 6,600, down from 11,400 less than 6 months ago. It will be below 5,000 in less than 3 MONTHS. Don't think so? Lets revisit this thread in a couple months. What makes FDX and UPS immune to the economic meltdown we are in....NOTHING.
The government came out and said they expected unemployment to PEAK at the 7.5-8.5 range. WE ARE ALREADY THERE and still haven't hit the bottom. Unemployment is going to go over 10% easily and very soon too. That means less money spent on packages because nobody is buying anything and more foreclosures are coming as well.
The DOW is at 6,600, down from 11,400 less than 6 months ago. It will be below 5,000 in less than 3 MONTHS. Don't think so? Lets revisit this thread in a couple months. What makes FDX and UPS immune to the economic meltdown we are in....NOTHING.
And for all you people who think we are on the verge of a depression, should pick up a book on the subject. When we get to 25% unemployment, then you can begin to talk. If that happens, I don't think there will be a need for either UPS or Fedex next day Air. We may have 300 pilots total on the list, and I will be eating dinner at the local church and living in a van down by the river!
03-09-2009, 10:04 AM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Leftof longitudinal
Posts: 1,899
This is from the IPA Juniority page. Not sure of the parameters but believe these numbers are based on age 60, not 65. If so, then the early numbers are skewed high, and the 2013 numbers are skewed low. Am posting only for an idea of year to year numbers. Called IPA to get current demographics and will post when received.
Near Term Retirements
Year # Retirements Chart
2009 60
2010 44
2011 51
2012 61
2013 65
2014 79
2015 100
2016 96
2017 97
2018 88
2019 138
2020 140
2021 177
2022 161
2023 188
Near Term Retirements
Year # Retirements Chart
2009 60
2010 44
2011 51
2012 61
2013 65
2014 79
2015 100
2016 96
2017 97
2018 88
2019 138
2020 140
2021 177
2022 161
2023 188
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