Trash Hauler 1

That's the second time you've mentioned the age 70 thing. Just your gut or do you have a name? Talked to a bud of mine who's dialed in with the gov affairs guys and he has no knowledge of any age 70 effort. Are you just trolling for effect or do you have something concrete to tell us? Just curious.

TH1

say that again

deleted, not worthy of a responce

Roberto

To put things in perspective, here is some recent history for you.

900 is the number of pilots we had in the 727, 747, and DC8 several years ago. After the Displacement we’ll be down to fewer than 300 in the DC8, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibilities to be down to zero in another year or two.

One A300, with 2 pilots, carries the load of one DC8 and one 727, with 6 pilots.

250 is about the number of pilots we hired in 2007, just before the USA age change to 65, but after ICAO changed the age in 2006.

270 is about the number of pilots that turned or will turn 60 for the first 5 years after the change (roughly 2008 through 2012).

120 is about the number of over-60 FE’s who have upgraded or will upgrade to the front seat.

Draw your own conclusions....

CactusCrew

All this talk about 70, here's an old dog that came out of retirement at 70 and won top DOG !

Really ...




Stump the Sussex spaniel named best in show Dog, 10, b
ecomes oldest winner ever at the Westminster Kennel Club show

The Associated Press
updated 11:35 p.m. ET, Tues., Feb. 10, 2009
NEW YORK - This old dog taught Westminster a new trick.

At 10, a Sussex spaniel called Stump became the oldest best in show winner at America’s top canine competition, coming out of retirement last week and taking the big prize Tuesday night.

“He hasn’t slowed down a bit,” expert handler Scott Sommer said. “I thought it would be fun.”

A nearly full crowd at Madison Square Garden cheered loudly when judge Sari Tietjen pointed to the new champion at the Westminster Kennel Club. Perhaps the fans knew Stump’s backstory — he left the show ring in 2004 and later nearly died from a mysterious medical condition. The vets at Texas A&M saved him.

“It was miraculous,” Sommer said.

Then again, maybe folks just liked rooting for the old guy. In human years, he’s almost 70!

Sommer said Sussex spaniels can live to be 15. Never before had a dog from this breed won the show. The previous oldest winner was an 8-year-old Papillon in 1999.

With floppy ears and a slow gait, the golden-red Stump beat out a sparkling final field. Sommer guided him past a giant schnauzer that was the nation’s top show dog, a favored Brussels griffon, a Scottish deerhound named Tiger Woods, a standard poodle with 94 best in show wins, a Scottish terrier and a puli.

After he won, Stump showed off his one trick: He got up on his hinds, as if he was begging. He didn’t have to, he was already No. 1.

Nearly 2,500 dogs were entered at Westminster. Last year’s champion, a beagle named Uno, was perhaps the most popular winner ever.

But with a bounce in his step, Stump is sure to win over plenty of people while he reigns for a year and gets extra playtime with his green Grinch toy.

“He really is retired this time,” Sommer said.

Stump won the sporting group at Westminster in 2004, then went into retirement. Soon after, he nearly wasted away and spent 19 days in a pet hospital.

“It was very traumatic,” Sommer said.

Once he recovered, Stump mostly spent his days hanging out with Sommer, living a dog’s life. That was more than fine with Sommer. He’d handled a great Bichon Frise called J.R. to the best in show at Westminster in 2001, and wasn’t looking for Stump to try again.

Besides, Stump had two sons to take care of, named Root and Forest.

Then five days before this show, Sommer thought Stump might enjoy one last walk on the green carpet at the Garden. And what a walk it was — his 51st best in show victory overall.

Stump began by winning the best of breed, then took best in group.

“Can you believe that?” said New York Yankees president Randy Levine, a regular at this event.

There was more in store, too. Stump lives with J.R. at Sommer’s home in Houston, and may’ve gotten some advice.

“J.R. must’ve told him this morning, ’Keep up the family name,”’ Sommer said.

This was the 133rd edition of Westminster and the dogs came in 170 breeds and varieties.

SaltyDog

Roberto,
Deleted my first attempt at this, but figure this other perspective is worth a post.

Highlighted the A300 efficiency as to why they need pilots on the property. Still stand by the fact that UPS can't afford to go short since they became so efficient. Advantage of working for UPS, they are always looking how to maximize profit in good times and bad, and move more efficiently our customers volume.
Lets take a breath and look over the market:
From Forbes magazine,
Associated Press
Relief rally lifts UPS shares post-earnings report
Associated Press, 02.03.09, 07:13 PM EST

"Shares of shipper UPS Inc. rebounded Tuesday as Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief that management is maintaining profitabilty and strong volumes amid the dismal economic environment."


Encouraging report. We know that Next Day Air Volume is down 8.2 percent 4th Quarter 2008. However, everyone here thinks the business is so grim, is it???? Well, 4th quarter Next Day Air volume is still relatively high to our historic volumes.

Reviewing all the UPS earnings reports since 1999, notice these volumes. The numbers are encouraging. The numbers that apply to us are the Next Day Air Volumes and International Volume, stuff primarily flown on UPS airplanes.

First Number is Average Next Day Air Daily Volume by Year, the second number is Average Daily International Volume. The third number is average daily packages shipped annually (All modes)

1999 1,039,000 / 1,154,000/ 12,921,000
2000 1,122,000/ 1,014,000/ 13,624,000
2001 1,116,000/ 1,213,000/ 13,563,000
2002 1,111,000/ 1,222,000/ 13,340,000
2003 1,185,000/ 1,267,000/ 13,638,000
2004 1,194,000/ 1,356,000/ 14,136,000
2005 1,228,000/ 1,532,000/ 14,750,000
2006 1,267,000/ 1,797,000/ 15,594,000
2007 1,277,000/ 1,893,000/ 15,539,000
2008 1,186,000/ 1,963,000/ 15,750,000

2008 was a good year overall, 4th quarter NDA numbers saw a return to 2005 numbers (which was a record at the time). Annually, our 2008 NDA numbers are the same as 2003 AFTER Wordport and A300 replaced the 727 and DC8 and CAE gateway.

UPS doesn't know exactly where the market is going, but they are still agressively working to attract business. You don't want to start a furlough unless it is big enough to pay off and guarantees flexibilty for a sharply turning market. As your numbers show, the over 60 folks are going to start retiring over the next few years off the front seat. The entire group of over 60 front seaters that turned 60 or were 60 on/before Dec 2007 will be retired no later than Dec 2012. (Think about 200, perhaps you can verify?) Those 200 start retiring at the end of 2009 and it picks up and is complete at the end of 2012. Then our 270 folks you described continue retiring en masse since that 5 year gap is now done. The furlough gap then is the three years between end of 2009 to 2012. Reality says you need 6 months min to get crews trained and released to the line. So a theoretical furlough in 4th quarter 2009 would need the crews returned and in training by first quarter 2012. That would be a 2 year furlough. Still don't see UPS wanting to take this route. Again, look at the historic volumes, 2008 was a good year! 4th qaurter was still not bad relative to just a few years earlier. Intl volume still gaining ground, almost doubled in daily volume since 1999 (just not growing as fast as we would all like) Need pilots to carry it though.

UPS IMO won't jump to furlough a few. Need to furlough alot. UPS in 2003 went after 100 then cancelled. Suppose that is their threshold. If UPS furloughed 100 in the 3rd quarter of 2009, they reduce their flexibility for a market return (you know, the LL Bean type contracts).
Can it happen? Sure, but UPS has also demonstrated that they are willing to carry crews to give them market response capability. The uncertainty actually works in our favor right now. UPS knows when we are retiring, that is a fixed, known wall that reduces the opportunity for furloughs.
Bad news for those swimming in the pool though. (sorry)