Why a furlough WILL NOT happen at UPS
11-09-2008, 02:57 AM
#1
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Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: Brown
Posts: 1,126
Why a furlough WILL NOT happen at UPS
I just read the complete "right sizing" thread and the entire "UPS furlough facts" thread and have some thoughts. My opinion is not worth more than others, but I feel like the naysayers are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts, namely Biggs and Frontseat.
First off, UPS is still making nearly 4 billion a year in profits. Yes profits were down 9%, but we still made nearly a billion last quarter. The economists are predicting a recession, but most don't think it will last more than a few more quarters. Continued profits don't guarentee there will not be furloughs, but it shows we are still part of a team that's making a lot of money in a bad economy. When there is a recovery business will boom for UPS and we need to keep our pilots trained and ready to expand. UPS can lay off drivers and bring them back quickly and cheaply, but obviously pilots are different.
If the DHL deal gets announced, even if it is less than originally planned, that's a strong sign that our jobs are safe and that there may be some hiring in the Spring.
If the DHL deal falls through and IF UPS decides to cut back it will be with the DC-8 fleet. The 8's are old, ugly, and inefficient just like the 75 or so PFEs or over age 65 FEs that operate them and the classic 747. By eliminating that fleet you eliminate 75 off the seniority list that can't train in the front seat. That leaves around 275 pilots from the 8 to be absorbed. I think 200 would be the max number that we could conceivably furlough, but that amount would have to be spread out over the drawdown of the DC-8. I don't think we could make service with a drastic and speedy grounding of the DC-8 fleet. Assuming UPS agrees and they decide to phase out the 8s over 18 months or so that would coincide with the 125 or so retirements of current front seaters with birthdays in 1944-47. There will be a lot of seats opening on the -400 just based on retirement numbers and a few more out of sympathy if a furlough is announced. Factor in a few dozen mil leave folks and the furlough number drops to 100 or so. The open time ban in our contract in the event of a furlough will protect 100 jobs!!
The junior guys in ANC, whom I think are the ones fearing the furlough the most, see a very different company than those junior folks based in the lower 48. I look at the senior capts on the -400 and see many names that were FEs on the 727 and 747. Many are great guys and I enjoyed flying with them. But some are scum of the Earth dudes that were aviation rejects in the 80's and lucked their way into one of the best jobs in aviation. The fact that I lucked my way into this job is beside the point. I'm sorry that someone has to listen to them talk about their money and toys between ANC and HKG. I feel very confident that enough of us in the IPA would honor an open time ban in the event of a furlough that it would not be worth it for UPS.
So if you've read this far and disagree with my analysis tell me how I am wrong. I am junior and a little nervous about all the furlough talk too. But it just does not make business sense for UPS to furlough.
Lil Jerry Seinfeld, MBA, Junior Dude
First off, UPS is still making nearly 4 billion a year in profits. Yes profits were down 9%, but we still made nearly a billion last quarter. The economists are predicting a recession, but most don't think it will last more than a few more quarters. Continued profits don't guarentee there will not be furloughs, but it shows we are still part of a team that's making a lot of money in a bad economy. When there is a recovery business will boom for UPS and we need to keep our pilots trained and ready to expand. UPS can lay off drivers and bring them back quickly and cheaply, but obviously pilots are different.
If the DHL deal gets announced, even if it is less than originally planned, that's a strong sign that our jobs are safe and that there may be some hiring in the Spring.
If the DHL deal falls through and IF UPS decides to cut back it will be with the DC-8 fleet. The 8's are old, ugly, and inefficient just like the 75 or so PFEs or over age 65 FEs that operate them and the classic 747. By eliminating that fleet you eliminate 75 off the seniority list that can't train in the front seat. That leaves around 275 pilots from the 8 to be absorbed. I think 200 would be the max number that we could conceivably furlough, but that amount would have to be spread out over the drawdown of the DC-8. I don't think we could make service with a drastic and speedy grounding of the DC-8 fleet. Assuming UPS agrees and they decide to phase out the 8s over 18 months or so that would coincide with the 125 or so retirements of current front seaters with birthdays in 1944-47. There will be a lot of seats opening on the -400 just based on retirement numbers and a few more out of sympathy if a furlough is announced. Factor in a few dozen mil leave folks and the furlough number drops to 100 or so. The open time ban in our contract in the event of a furlough will protect 100 jobs!!
The junior guys in ANC, whom I think are the ones fearing the furlough the most, see a very different company than those junior folks based in the lower 48. I look at the senior capts on the -400 and see many names that were FEs on the 727 and 747. Many are great guys and I enjoyed flying with them. But some are scum of the Earth dudes that were aviation rejects in the 80's and lucked their way into one of the best jobs in aviation. The fact that I lucked my way into this job is beside the point. I'm sorry that someone has to listen to them talk about their money and toys between ANC and HKG. I feel very confident that enough of us in the IPA would honor an open time ban in the event of a furlough that it would not be worth it for UPS.
So if you've read this far and disagree with my analysis tell me how I am wrong. I am junior and a little nervous about all the furlough talk too. But it just does not make business sense for UPS to furlough.
Lil Jerry Seinfeld, MBA, Junior Dude
Last edited by L'il J.Seinfeld; 11-09-2008 at 03:03 AM.
11-09-2008, 03:48 AM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: 757/767 Capt
Posts: 650
Great Post with alot of good points and reasoning!, One question?
You said the "DC-8's were old, ugly and inefficient, just like the 75 or so PFE's" Did you mean to imply they are old ugly and inefficient too!! :>
On a side note the last furlough scare was narrowly averted due to many of our Reservists being called up for the Iraq War...alot of the same points you make applied then as well, the aspect you missed is that I was told by a Mgr that UPS corporate made alot of sacrifices/lay-offs etc during that period and wanted the "air side" to make a "token furlough" to show how all of the UPS divisions were making cost cutting moves, spreading the pain...He said it was a pure political move to appease the box-heads, His words
Hope your right, sounds like a tough argument to counter!
See You,
Vito
You said the "DC-8's were old, ugly and inefficient, just like the 75 or so PFE's" Did you mean to imply they are old ugly and inefficient too!! :>
On a side note the last furlough scare was narrowly averted due to many of our Reservists being called up for the Iraq War...alot of the same points you make applied then as well, the aspect you missed is that I was told by a Mgr that UPS corporate made alot of sacrifices/lay-offs etc during that period and wanted the "air side" to make a "token furlough" to show how all of the UPS divisions were making cost cutting moves, spreading the pain...He said it was a pure political move to appease the box-heads, His words
Hope your right, sounds like a tough argument to counter!
See You,
Vito
11-09-2008, 03:53 AM
#3
Retired Doug herder
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: Former DC8 73 Capt DHLAirways/Astar. Retired
Posts: 424
Lil J, FWIW, I agree with your post. I don't see how there will be a furlough at UPS, even if the DHL deal doesn't go through or is greatly reduced in its scope. The only thing I take exception to is that DC8's are "old, ugly, and inefficient". Blasphemy! She's the Queen of the Skies! 
11-09-2008, 04:46 AM
#4
Part Time Employee
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: Dispersing Green House Gasses on a Global Basis
Posts: 1,918
Lil J, FWIW, I agree with your post. I don't see how there will be a furlough at UPS, even if the DHL deal doesn't go through or is greatly reduced in its scope. The only thing I take exception to is that DC8's are "old, ugly, and inefficient". Blasphemy! She's the Queen of the Skies!
11-09-2008, 05:44 AM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,333
"...I just read the complete "right sizing" thread and the entire "UPS furlough facts" thread and have some thoughts. My opinion is not worth more than others, but I feel like the naysayers are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts, namely Biggs and Frontseat..."
LJS - Well, the "right sizing" thread actually implied that there will be furloughs, therefore you're actually contradicting yourself a little when you say "...naysayers [on that thread] are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts..." because the nay-sayers on that thread were actually arguing against the idea of a furlough - it was the 'yea-sayers' on that thread who felt that there will be a furlough. Semantics. ; )
Just in time when the 'rightsizing' thread turned somewhat positive you just had to create yet another thread where UPS and furlough are mentioned in the same sentence, didn't you?
Just kidding, and personally I do agree with your analysis regarding possible but not probable layoffs and hope that we'll all be allright. When I say all, I include our DHL brothers and sisters.
This must be at least the 5th very recent thread on UPS and furlough… : (
I used to feel a little jealous to see so many threads started with FDX- in the title but no longer. Now I cringe when I see the word UPS in the title because it’s probably something about layoffs or a furlough all over again…
PS. DC 8s are sexy until you get inside...
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Unite...(F)/1157876/M/
Also, you are not that junior, I'm sure swedish blender will tell tell you soon if you should feel safe for now... (I'm keedin' blender)
LJS - Well, the "right sizing" thread actually implied that there will be furloughs, therefore you're actually contradicting yourself a little when you say "...naysayers [on that thread] are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts..." because the nay-sayers on that thread were actually arguing against the idea of a furlough - it was the 'yea-sayers' on that thread who felt that there will be a furlough. Semantics. ; )
Just in time when the 'rightsizing' thread turned somewhat positive you just had to create yet another thread where UPS and furlough are mentioned in the same sentence, didn't you?
Just kidding, and personally I do agree with your analysis regarding possible but not probable layoffs and hope that we'll all be allright. When I say all, I include our DHL brothers and sisters.
This must be at least the 5th very recent thread on UPS and furlough… : (
I used to feel a little jealous to see so many threads started with FDX- in the title but no longer. Now I cringe when I see the word UPS in the title because it’s probably something about layoffs or a furlough all over again…
PS. DC 8s are sexy until you get inside...
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Unite...(F)/1157876/M/
Also, you are not that junior, I'm sure swedish blender will tell tell you soon if you should feel safe for now... (I'm keedin' blender)
Last edited by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE; 11-09-2008 at 06:02 AM.
11-09-2008, 07:10 AM
#9
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Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: seated beer curl
Posts: 406
Hasn't UPS been getting rid of the DC-8's for what, 16 years?
oh, and another chime in on your 8's being ugly. As opposed to what, the bland 767 or Airbus? It's a beautiful airplane...especially compared to the soulless airplanes they're making these days!
oh, and another chime in on your 8's being ugly. As opposed to what, the bland 767 or Airbus? It's a beautiful airplane...especially compared to the soulless airplanes they're making these days!
Last edited by LeftWing; 11-09-2008 at 11:37 AM.
11-09-2008, 08:09 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: UPS Captain
Posts: 837
Yes. I think they have parked them several times over the years
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