block30

I agree.

Also, I hate to thread drift too much, but the insane cost of GA training aircraft has got to reverse as well. So many factors have choked off the pilot supply...I would think the majors/LCCs/big cargo could put their thumb on the scale to effect some change.

JohnBurke

Far longer than a decade. The "pilot shortage myth" has been perpetuated for decades, and it's never been true. It still isn't. It was the darling of Kit Darby and his pack of lies for a long time, and it's been the swan song of flight schools and colleges for decades.

There is no shortage of pilots. The shortage is on the pay side for the companies that fail to attract pilots. There are plenty of pilots; one isn't a shoe-in at the majors today simply becuase one is qualified; there are plenty of applicants. If a regional has difficulty getting applicants, because all the applicants are in line elsewhere, then compete. Pay enough to pull them back, and treat them like professionals. No problem.

Going to happen?

No.

Great lakes would rather chop out seats and go 135. That's indicative of the lowbrow quality of the companies that cry pilot shortage. There is no pilot shortage, but for those who can't attract pilots, the mirror will be a valuable source for finding the problem.

Phteven

I entirely agree that it is the ****tiest companies that are crying "pilot shortage" because they want lawmakers and the public to think there is no solution but to lower the standards, and I in no way support that. I am curious though what the true pilot supply looks like.

Bear with me for a second and imagine that every regional airplane currently operating under contract for their respective mainlines were to be absorbed by their major counterparts tomorrow (ENY, PDT, PSA = AA, QX=AS, 9E=DAL, etc.). All the flying continues and everyone works for a major getting better pay, better benefits, etc.

That would certainly sending people flocking to flight schools to learn to fly, lots of mil guys might retire instead of shoot for 20, lots of corporate/135 would bail for the airlines. However, making a pilot isn't just throwing on a tie and an oversized hat and having them sit in the right seat - would there be no period of time where there wasn't a thinner-than-ideal number of applicants? I imagine not if that happened right now, but the hiring wave is not yet at its peak.

I don't like the term "shortage" because it suggests we need to take drastic measures to fix the problem. If they improved the job, there would be no problem, never would have been, and the solution is STILL to improve the job, not change the standards. However, to what extent will the damage be done in a short-term sense?

Packrat

Pay isn't going to change as long as there are people willing to do the job at the offered rate.

JohnBurke

That's an imaginary world which makes far too many assumptions, not the least of which is that every pilot wishes to fly for an airline, or that a vast increase in airline positions or pay would mean a paradigm shift in career direction or desired direction. Airline flying is fine for some, but hardly the be-all or end all of a flying career. I know a lot of pilots, a LOT, who have absolutely no intention or desire to fly for an airline, and it has nothing to do with available positions.

Presently there are large pools of qualified applicants lined up for major airline positions. If in an imaginary, unrealistic world, the regionals began paying the same as the majors, then some of that pool would be absorbed. That's all. It's irrelevant, however, as that's not going to happen.

RhinoBallAuto

I can't be the only one who found this reply absolutely hysterical...

Phteven

I think you missed my point. Didn't say "every pilot wishes to fly for an airline." However, there are over twice as many airline pilots as their are any other type of professional pilot so it makes sense that if a significant segment of the airline world made enormous changes to pay and QOL that that would shake things up. The question at hand is whether or not there is a pilot shortage. If there is, it would affect the regionals and some 135 first. I pose the "imaginary world" only to say that if those places are struggling to hire, I am curious whether they still would if they significantly improved the job tomorrow.

galaxy flyer

One thing there is not--a shortage of pilots. I'm hiring for 2 corporate positions and swimming in resumes. All ATPs with 5,000+ hours, heavy corporate iron time, ex-mil and some all civil. They all expect 130K+ to start. Lots if pilots out there.

GF

say again

Do you find that unreasonable?

galaxy flyer

Not unreasonable at all; just far different from RJ F/O pay. We'll probably negotiate something around that figure, depending. One advantage, outside of seniority systems, is the ability to move which forces employers to adjust individual pay.

Funny thing, there is a shortage of experienced pilots for the corporates. Everyone is focused on the majors (rightly for most) that good careers go begging.

GF