JamesAA

We all know the glory days of being an airline pilot are long since gone. I was born in '73 and by the time I was old enough to understand what careers were, airline piloting was gold! Obviously much has changed today. I opted for other jobs and now at age 40 I regret that decision.

Yahoo recently published a short article discussing the heavy amount of traffic in our air space as of late. And to quote directly from that article:

"Plane manufacturer Boeing estimates that within 20 years, the industry will need 498,000 new commercial airline pilots and 556,000 new maintenance technicians. Finding enough skilled workers to meet that demand isn't going to be easy."

My question is: have any of you already seen a change (for the better) in hiring? And do you feel pilots will actually be in demand in the next few years? I don't know what that leaves for me at age 40, but if I started today I could build quite a few hours by age 45 and if the industry is really desperate, perhaps they might actually hire an old guy?? I imagine a lot of this demand may be overseas (particularly Asia) , not stateside. As much as I'd love to fly I don't think that would be an option for me. It would have to be stateside.

I realize I probably missed the boat, but...well, ya never know. Thought I'd tap the heads of people in the biz that know a helluv a lot more than I do.

Thanks,
James

Cubdriver

You didn't miss anything. Lately there is a minor shortage of pilots due to a varety of causes, but it is a minor one. Over the next ten years the profession is expected to experience less than average growth overall, and maybe even shrink a little bit.

US BLS Pilot pages

Piloting is widely perceived to be a glamour job like actor, writer, pro sports, or pop musician. As such it generates a lot of wishful thinking and stargazing. One of the most persistent wishful ideas is there is or will be a pilot shortage. Be aware that talk of a pilot shortage is usually based on weak facts.

rickair7777

A little clarity on the employment change...

That may reflect a loss of jobs at the regional pilot level and possibly in general aviation.

The hiring outlook for the best major airline jobs should actually be pretty good relative to historical levels. This is due primarily to mandatory age-65 retirements, not necessarily industry growth or health. It is still going to be competitive and I doubt they'll be hiring folks with GEDs or DUIs, but if you're smart and motivated there may be opportunity. The catch is that you won't find out for sure until you've paid some dues. The folks who would be most competitive for major jobs are the same folks who are competitive for good careers in other fields.

I suspect that higher-end biz-av employment will stay pretty good too...as society continues to stratify, there will be more folks who can afford jets and as long as you're willing to take your place among the growing servant class there may be opportunity there as well.

Rawhide16

As much as I love to believe that this alleged pilot shortage will come to fruition, especially around 2017 when I get out of the AF, I still remain somewhat skeptical. Keep in mind that Boeing's goal is to sell airplanes so their market outlook may be somewhat biased. Though I feel that the next decade or two will see increased hiring, mainly at the regional/national level, the industry is still highly volatile. Terrorist activity, poor economy, the cost of oil can and will play a major role in future hiring.

My fingers are crossed.

Cubdriver

I think they say the loss is due to the advent of physically larger regional aircraft, larger airplanes with more seats in particular. Recreational GA as we know has seen a massive decline in recent years due to fuel costs, litigation, and the gradual decline of the middle class but since we are talking about jobs it shouldn't matter directly. What we do see is a rapid rise in acquisition cost for new GA aircraft due to smaller sales volumes.

Interesting point and one that is in agreement with current Teal Group analysis on the subject, except for one thing. The bizjet market has also stratified in recent years into two major groups- the super midsize (ie. Gulfstream) segment that continued to sell well during the world recession, and another group comprised of smaller bizjets which saw massive downturns during the same period. The latter hasn't recovered on time to the dismay of industry analysts. It's hard to put numbers on it, but we do know this stratification has taken place and pilot employment may be adversely affected.

Cubdriver

If there are not enough pilots or those pilots cost too much, Boeing sells less airplanes. Period. I leave it to you decide how trustworthy such a biased opinion is, and I do not think it is very trustworthy on this subject.

tom11011

There very well could be a pilot shortage, but whether that rings true here in the US is debatable. Clearly Latin America, China, and other up and coming nations will have a shortage and are going to need pilots. Many may come from the US because their pay and benefits will be more lavish.

You are 40 which isn't old to start but consider this. It's going to take you 4-5 years to make it to the cockpit of an airliner if you start today and dedicate nearly full time towards the training. Once here, based on today's data which could change for better or worse at anytime, are you prepared to sit at a regional airline for 10 years making between $25,000-$50,000 per year with poor benefits?

There is a family impact too you will have to weigh, there is an entire forum dedicated to this so you can read all that yourself.

Things are very fluid right now and truthfully nobody knows how things are going to unravel on a variety of fronts over the next month let alone the next few years. If you have been following this forum then you know what I mean.

My advice to you would be this. Get a private pilot license. Have it completed in the next 6 months. After that, you will have gained some new perspective in addition to a pilots license. At that point, re-evaluate your ambition again to see if you still think it is for you. If not, you still have a license for Saturday afternoon fun and expensive hamburgers.

James, I'm just 3 years older than you so if you want to private chat, feel free anytime.

e6bpilot

The retirements don't lie.

If your goal is to become a major airline pilot in the next 10 years, you have a much better chance of obtaining that goal than in the previous 10 years. Yes, the industry may shrink the number of pilots, but with thousands upon thousands DEFINITELY leaving the profession in the next few decades, there is a lot of opportunity for new hires.

If this job is what you want to do, there has not been a better outlook for a long time. Barring some major catastrophic economic event, it should continue for some time. We are still sitting on the cusp. Look at how the hiring is ramping up for the big 3 as well as all the other players in the industry. Once the pool of highly qualified pilots is gone, you will start seeing the average joes getting a chance. Call me an optimist...that's fine.

e6bpilot

I was in your shoes 3 years ago and now gainfully employed. Start planning for the transition NOW. Network with old airline buds, start working your reserve/guard unit, get your certificates. It comes quick.