The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
06-18-2019, 05:46 AM
#273
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: Pilot
Posts: 2,625
Anyone younger then 45 will probably see single pilot. Those just entering the industry will most likely be automated away at some point. I will seriously start to worry when FedEx and UPS go single pilot, we won't be far behind.
Looking at the avhearld site the vast majority of incidents are pilot induced today. Taking the pilot out of most operations will most likely improve safety. I know it sounds bad but the facts are the facts.
A lot of the CA's job is ensuring compliance with regulations, and interacting with all facets of the operation. I personally do not see that job function going away. It may, and the job description may well change from "pilot" to "flight ops coordinator". Who knows.
But so much of our industry still operates in a labor intensive fashion.
Looking at the avhearld site the vast majority of incidents are pilot induced today. Taking the pilot out of most operations will most likely improve safety. I know it sounds bad but the facts are the facts.
A lot of the CA's job is ensuring compliance with regulations, and interacting with all facets of the operation. I personally do not see that job function going away. It may, and the job description may well change from "pilot" to "flight ops coordinator". Who knows.
But so much of our industry still operates in a labor intensive fashion.
06-18-2019, 07:37 AM
#275
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,267
Agreed. We are looking at, at best, decades of proof of concept studies, human factors studies, flight deck redesigns new regulations, new certification, new training (and all THAT comes with), and public acceptance.
That last one is going to take some time.
That last one is going to take some time.
06-18-2019, 11:31 AM
#276
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: 1900D CA
Posts: 3,494
I have argued on this forum in the past that I believe the eventual direction we are headed is towards single pilot with remote backup.
However, what I think is one of the biggest speed bumps to our eventual job losses is simply the fact that the industry hasn't decided what path to take forward. Are we going single pilot with remote backup, or are we going fully remote operating, or are we going to make the huge leap to autonomous control?
In my mind, you can't even begin to discuss a timeline until we know where we are headed.
I am a huge automotive industry buff. I have very closely followed the path towards automation in cars. The one thing that I will point out is there are many baby steps along the way, followed by a single giant leap.
Baby steps have been occurring for a long time. Think, anti lock brakes, traction control, stability control. Then blind spot monitors, radar cruise control, automatic emergency brakes, and lane following. Currently, Teslas can change lanes on their own and even take highway off ramps.
Those are all accomplishments, but they are a long way from hundreds of cars perfectly merging on and off of freeways all by themselves. To have a computer system that is overseeing all traffic flow and controlling all vehicles speeds, and order of flow, is a huge hurdle and still a long long ways off.
My point is that there will be many further baby steps that will occur long before we are kicked to the curb. That being said, I'm still aggressively stashing cash in my 401k
However, what I think is one of the biggest speed bumps to our eventual job losses is simply the fact that the industry hasn't decided what path to take forward. Are we going single pilot with remote backup, or are we going fully remote operating, or are we going to make the huge leap to autonomous control?
In my mind, you can't even begin to discuss a timeline until we know where we are headed.
I am a huge automotive industry buff. I have very closely followed the path towards automation in cars. The one thing that I will point out is there are many baby steps along the way, followed by a single giant leap.
Baby steps have been occurring for a long time. Think, anti lock brakes, traction control, stability control. Then blind spot monitors, radar cruise control, automatic emergency brakes, and lane following. Currently, Teslas can change lanes on their own and even take highway off ramps.
Those are all accomplishments, but they are a long way from hundreds of cars perfectly merging on and off of freeways all by themselves. To have a computer system that is overseeing all traffic flow and controlling all vehicles speeds, and order of flow, is a huge hurdle and still a long long ways off.
My point is that there will be many further baby steps that will occur long before we are kicked to the curb. That being said, I'm still aggressively stashing cash in my 401k
06-18-2019, 12:54 PM
#279
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,116
Im just imagining the plantiffs filing aftet first hull loss.
Everbody...and i mean everbody that is even remotely involved is gona get tagged. The ac mfg. The airline. The atc system. All the way to the chip maker in the black boxes.
And i dont care what due diligence defense argument is made.....no jury of humans is gona buy it. And plantiffs counsel will have the infinite probability of human behavior as counter to any AI rationale.
Unless maybe by that time the jury is a bunch of AI droids.
Everbody...and i mean everbody that is even remotely involved is gona get tagged. The ac mfg. The airline. The atc system. All the way to the chip maker in the black boxes.
And i dont care what due diligence defense argument is made.....no jury of humans is gona buy it. And plantiffs counsel will have the infinite probability of human behavior as counter to any AI rationale.
Unless maybe by that time the jury is a bunch of AI droids.
06-18-2019, 01:27 PM
#280
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,304
Im just imagining the plantiffs filing aftet first hull loss.
Everbody...and i mean everbody that is even remotely involved is gona get tagged. The ac mfg. The airline. The atc system. All the way to the chip maker in the black boxes.
And i dont care what due diligence defense argument is made.....no jury of humans is gona buy it. And plantiffs counsel will have the infinite probability of human behavior as counter to any AI rationale.
Unless maybe by that time the jury is a bunch of AI droids.
Everbody...and i mean everbody that is even remotely involved is gona get tagged. The ac mfg. The airline. The atc system. All the way to the chip maker in the black boxes.
And i dont care what due diligence defense argument is made.....no jury of humans is gona buy it. And plantiffs counsel will have the infinite probability of human behavior as counter to any AI rationale.
Unless maybe by that time the jury is a bunch of AI droids.
Sure a couple airplanes will crash due to some sort of automation failure, but I have a feeling the total accident rate will be lower making those losses acceptable. Also, the cost savings might even cover the insurance/litigation expenses!
I don't think this will happen quickly though due to regulatory hurdles and the initial outlay of capital it would take. So we're safe for now!
Droid Jury sounds terrifying though!!
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