The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
11-08-2018, 06:40 AM
#171
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,029
Let’s say they had the aircraft certification approved today. How much more would this plane cost relative to an aircraft with a comparable mission? How long would it take to recoup the increased cost? Would it truly be cheap enough to be worth replacing pilots? I’m not sure that these questions can be answered.
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11-08-2018, 06:51 AM
#172
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 94
Something always ignored is the fact that not everything is covered in the QRH, engineering documents or FAR. The last even gives aircrews latitude to deviate to the extent necessary to meet the needs of an emergency. It seems most discussions are oblivious to this.
In spite of those that dismiss improvisation as “seat of the pants” flying which has no place in the 121 world, it has saved many. Whether it’s the use of asymmetric thrust for directional control, or dead stick landings to an abandoned field, levee, or river. When things go bad, the ability to think outside the box is a significant hurdle to program. System reliability, redundancy and high MTBF numbers have zilch to do with things going bad.
If an electronic box is flying the plane, the ability to improvise is only as good as the programming. With flesh and blood up front, there’s a chance someone can open a bag of tricks and at least reduce any loss. Just my .02
In spite of those that dismiss improvisation as “seat of the pants” flying which has no place in the 121 world, it has saved many. Whether it’s the use of asymmetric thrust for directional control, or dead stick landings to an abandoned field, levee, or river. When things go bad, the ability to think outside the box is a significant hurdle to program. System reliability, redundancy and high MTBF numbers have zilch to do with things going bad.
If an electronic box is flying the plane, the ability to improvise is only as good as the programming. With flesh and blood up front, there’s a chance someone can open a bag of tricks and at least reduce any loss. Just my .02
11-08-2018, 07:24 AM
#173
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,272
Something always ignored is the fact that not everything is covered in the QRH, engineering documents or FAR. The last even gives aircrews latitude to deviate to the extent necessary to meet the needs of an emergency. It seems most discussions are oblivious to this.
In spite of those that dismiss improvisation as “seat of the pants” flying which has no place in the 121 world, it has saved many. Whether it’s the use of asymmetric thrust for directional control, or dead stick landings to an abandoned field, levee, or river. When things go bad, the ability to think outside the box is a significant hurdle to program. System reliability, redundancy and high MTBF numbers have zilch to do with things going bad.
If an electronic box is flying the plane, the ability to improvise is only as good as the programming. With flesh and blood up front, there’s a chance someone can open a bag of tricks and at least reduce any loss. Just my .02
In spite of those that dismiss improvisation as “seat of the pants” flying which has no place in the 121 world, it has saved many. Whether it’s the use of asymmetric thrust for directional control, or dead stick landings to an abandoned field, levee, or river. When things go bad, the ability to think outside the box is a significant hurdle to program. System reliability, redundancy and high MTBF numbers have zilch to do with things going bad.
If an electronic box is flying the plane, the ability to improvise is only as good as the programming. With flesh and blood up front, there’s a chance someone can open a bag of tricks and at least reduce any loss. Just my .02
11-08-2018, 07:26 AM
#174
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 94
Think of the new wave of automation as a "super autopilot". You're on the runway, receive a takeoff clearance, and push TO/GA. The autopilot will power up, rotate, raise the gear, raise the flaps, and fly the RNAV departure. You will monitor. This makes the entire operation safer as it takes the pilot out of the high task environment and allows them to grab the big picture without worry about the mundane task of actually flying.
Nope, you don’t get it.
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11-08-2018, 07:32 AM
#176
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,272
Let’s say they had the aircraft certification approved today. How much more would this plane cost relative to an aircraft with a comparable mission? How long would it take to recoup the increased cost? Would it truly be cheap enough to be worth replacing pilots? I’m not sure that these questions can be answered.
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11-08-2018, 07:35 AM
#178
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,029
The cost savings are a domino effect. I calculated for example just the customer savings on a trans pac flight going from four to two pilots would save each customer $100. And that was just in direct and indirect labor costs. It ignores reduced managment footprint, less sims/training IPs, reduced sick/canceled/delayed flights, less worry on scheduling issues, less hotel rooms, the list is practically endless.
You can’t possibly know that. You don’t know what the plane will cost.
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11-08-2018, 07:56 AM
#179
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 94
The cost savings are a domino effect. I calculated for example just the customer savings on a trans pac flight going from four to two pilots would save each customer $100. And that was just in direct and indirect labor costs. It ignores reduced managment footprint, less sims/training IPs, reduced sick/canceled/delayed flights, less worry on scheduling issues, less hotel rooms, the list is practically endless.
Any figures on contingency training to ensure a ground controller is sufficiently trained on specific or multiple airframes in case the single pilot is incapacitated? How about the supporting infrastructure for remote operations? Who pays? Operator or taxpayer? Would that be a one size fits all interface?
The salary for the single pilot should increase. He will have to come with substantial experience since in a single pilot environment there is no one to glean from. What level of experience would you want up front single pilot of a heavy jet if AI drops offline? Electronics are reliable, but not perfect. Every circuit is waiting for its moment to fail. Murphy odds are it won’t happen taxiing into the gate.
I probably have more questions than anyone has unicorn and rainbow answers.
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