dera

I think this is exactly what's going to happen. In the next 30-50 years.

Name User

ADSB is a game changer. Instead of maintaining speed we will be maintaining distance from the aircraft in front of us. This will be a completely different way of controlling. They were already experimenting with this half a decade ago across the Atlantic, I saw it being done with a dedicated ADSB box in the airplane.

This will have ramifications beyond pilots, to also include all the ground based headcount as well.

Name User

YOU DO NOT NEED A NEW AIRFRAME

Guys, get this through your heads. You can retrofit this technology.

Name User

You'll see large scale use of cargo drones in the one-ton/1000 mile category well within 10 years in other countries. The only reason it will take longer here is because of our red tape. China is already using small ones for delivery services.

Larry in TN

Here's an interesting look at the current state of automated vehicles.

https://youtu.be/1Jf1ZM-ho4o

dera

I was talking about Part 25 planes. Smaller stuff, yeah, possible.

Peacock

I don’t think that any airliners are getting retrofitted any time soon. Single pilot means it needs to be autonomous. NASA’s most recent study already crapped all over single pilot. It will start small and scale up over decades. Once autonomous cars are fully accepted, passengers will be ok with single pilot airliners.

Adlerdriver

What you need to get through your head is the cost involved in doing this. No one is saying we don't have the capability to do this. It just doesn't make financial sense. FedEx paid over 10 million per airplane to convert DC-10s to MD-10s and still haven't recouped the cost. Even with the reduction in crew from 3 to 2, combined bid packs and reduced training costs. You can buy a lot of flight engineer pay, sim time, etc. for 10+ million per aircraft (I think they modded about 70).

You're talking about fully automating a 777, 747, 787 or the like? It's a lot more than just putting a servo in to raise the gear or program it to fly a perfect V1 cut or engine out pattern. Based on the cost of the MD-10 program roughly 20 years ago, my guess is fully automating currently produced aircraft is easily going to run 20-40% of the basic aircraft cost. There are also a bunch of details you seem to be ignoring.

And to what end? Reducing the number of pilots on board by one? Are you claiming that's going to increased safety? We all know that's not the case. So, all this just to save on the cost of one pilot?

Since you claim to have all the answers, here are a few questions:

When do you think the ATC system will be upgraded to the point where one pilot will be as safe as two? And please don't tell us about ADS-B, because that's no better than CPDLC in a terminal environment like NYC, ORD or LAX. So, how does the single pilot receive ATC instructions in a dynamic terminal environment?

What does the cockpit modification look like for say, a 777? One seat? How does taxiing work? Cameras?

Does this single pilot operate into the same airports that passenger planes full of people do? If not, now we need to add the cost of moving freight from outlying airports to the final destination as well as relocating freight hubs from their current locations.

What's the plan (exactly) when the single pilot has a heart attack somewhere over the US?
I guess we just write him off since no one will be around to render aid or hook him up to a AED.

Since the aircraft with the incapacitated pilot now has to be fully automated to be recovered somewhere, who flies it or monitors it? How much do they get paid? Where does it land? Nearest suitable? Or since we've written off the pilot, just keep going to get the freight there on time. If it's nearest suitable, who handles the aircraft once it's on the ground? Does it taxi by remote control or just close the runway until they can tow it? Will there only be specially designated airports to handle a pilotless (incapacitated pilot) aircraft? Who gets to have that aircraft flying over their house, baseball field or school?

So, rather than tell us all how easy it will be to modify existing aircraft, how about you give us some real details about how you see this playing out?

Adlerdriver

Frankly, I don't think your average passenger fully comprehends the ramifications of two pilots versus one. Most of them probably think the Captain flies all the time and the FO is just there to watch and maybe take over for a few minutes while he takes a leak.
I really doubt acceptance of autonomous, 2-dimensional cars is going to have any effect on the future automation of aviation. Anyone who really understands what's going on in a 121 cockpit every day isn't going to be influenced by the success of an auto-car, IMO.

dera

Another interesting question is, where do these single pilots come from. Who trains them and where, etc.
Going single pilot means getting rid of the FO/Captain mentorship.
Lots of open questions, and not nearly all of them are technical.