The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
07-30-2017, 11:33 AM
#91
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 463
Agreed. Airline pilots will be obsolete in 10 years, possibly less. Cargo first, then passenger. It's going to happen faster than we want to admit.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
07-30-2017, 01:31 PM
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Posts: 1,681
I remember seeing Rutan in an interview about aircraft automation a long time back.....
He put it well:
"Sure, we could fully automate airliners with technology we have right now..... But then one will screw up and fly into the Rose Bowl, and that's the last you'll ever see of that idea."
He put it well:
"Sure, we could fully automate airliners with technology we have right now..... But then one will screw up and fly into the Rose Bowl, and that's the last you'll ever see of that idea."
07-30-2017, 02:53 PM
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 463
I remember seeing Rutan in an interview about aircraft automation a long time back.....
He put it well:
"Sure, we could fully automate airliners with technology we have right now..... But then one will screw up and fly into the Rose Bowl, and that's the last you'll ever see of that idea."
He put it well:
"Sure, we could fully automate airliners with technology we have right now..... But then one will screw up and fly into the Rose Bowl, and that's the last you'll ever see of that idea."
07-30-2017, 03:00 PM
#94
New Hire
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 7
And do not listen to a word this guy says. He's just bitter and hates his job. Go be a pilot, automation won't affect your career until maybe you are in your 60s, and that's a huge maybe. Seriously can anyone come up with a cogent point proving cost savings or an equal or better level of safety? No.
Math challenge accepted:
Pilots accounted for 9% of operating expenses in 2016 at AA, ~ $3B. Aircraft debt service was ~$200M in 2016. Even if we doubled the cost of aircraft to AA annually to $400M, to account for an automated airliner increase in cost, I think the numbers form a relatively cogent argument.
Of course there would be costs associated with improving infrastructure to allow automated cockpits, but when you save $2B+ annually, there's room to maneuver. And those added infrastructure costs, unlike salaries, can be amortized.
07-30-2017, 03:06 PM
#95
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,609
I agree, OP should be a recreational pilot if he likes flying. But I think he was asking about the potential for automation to replace airline/cargo pilots.
Math challenge accepted:
Pilots accounted for 9% of operating expenses in 2016 at AA, ~ $3B. Aircraft debt service was ~$200M in 2016. Even if we doubled the cost of aircraft to AA annually to $400M, to account for an automated airliner increase in cost, I think the numbers form a relatively cogent argument.
Of course there would be costs associated with improving infrastructure to allow automated cockpits, but when you save $2B+ annually, there's room to maneuver. And those added infrastructure costs, unlike salaries, can be amortized.
Math challenge accepted:
Pilots accounted for 9% of operating expenses in 2016 at AA, ~ $3B. Aircraft debt service was ~$200M in 2016. Even if we doubled the cost of aircraft to AA annually to $400M, to account for an automated airliner increase in cost, I think the numbers form a relatively cogent argument.
Of course there would be costs associated with improving infrastructure to allow automated cockpits, but when you save $2B+ annually, there's room to maneuver. And those added infrastructure costs, unlike salaries, can be amortized.
07-30-2017, 06:55 PM
#96
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
Agreed. Airline pilots will be obsolete in 10 years, possibly less. Cargo first, then passenger. It's going to happen faster than we want to admit.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
I'll concede that 10 years is likely to be the soonest we'll see automation of cockpits, but I stand by the sentiment of my post. Once a pilot is no longer needed, we are obsolete. Culture and politics will determine how fast we are out of work.
Automation is coming, it may be 10, 20, or 100 years away. Before it's a completed process, our profession may undergo significant changes in terms of QoL and compensation as a result of management's automation leverage.
Given the current trajectory of machine learning, I think the OP is taking on significant risk by investing in a long term airline career. I'd at least recommend having a backup plan in case this happens sooner than later.
Automation is coming, it may be 10, 20, or 100 years away. Before it's a completed process, our profession may undergo significant changes in terms of QoL and compensation as a result of management's automation leverage.
Given the current trajectory of machine learning, I think the OP is taking on significant risk by investing in a long term airline career. I'd at least recommend having a backup plan in case this happens sooner than later.
That's some pretty serious back pedaling without the self awareness to realize it...
07-30-2017, 08:29 PM
#97
New Hire
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 7
Aircraft debt. What do you think the debt would be if you parked all the current aircraft and then replaced every single one with pilotless aircraft? It would probably bankrupt the company. That and there isn't even remotely the infrastructure in place to remotely control any aircraft from an ATC perspective. I'm not saying it won't eventually be possible, but not during my career.
I agree that there is work to be done in order to communicate with automated aircraft, (issues with ADS-B bandwidth and signal security come to mind). I think that we'll solve these type of infrastructure problems sooner than later.
07-30-2017, 08:52 PM
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 463
.
08-07-2017, 10:49 AM
#100
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Posts: 98
Just think how pilots used to talk about flying in clouds, using autopilot or letting an airplane autoland. It is going to take awhile to get there, but I'm confident it will. Snow blocking the street lines, they can always put metal chips in the paint so cars stay in their lane using nfc type tech. Don't think for one second that a computer would be less capable of maintaining control in the snow. They have more sensitive sensors and just more data in general to let them know well before they start to skid. It's a matter of time. Start preparing yourself for it now.
Okay.. How about parallel parking in NYC?
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