Twin Wasp

They have 6 months before the planes show. Plenty of time to hire. And they have have a 777 training program in place. We'd have to get a training program approved (the FAA is closed this week), create an initial cadre of instructors and CA and then gen up 25 or 30 crews. I don't see it happening.

atpcliff

500 pilots is something above 40% of the pilot group...a VERY high percentage.

Atlas has 7? planes flying passengers, and has been flying passengers for over 3 years, so flying -777 pax makes sense. My next rotation is all pax flying.

WTFover

A VERY high percentage? In that same time, DAL and UAL are retiring 75% and AA 90%!

Let's see, one could be at 60% of 1,000 or so or...10-25% of ten times that. Which one would be a Captain's seat?

Not saying that is the end all, be all, but many on here have discussed the upgrade time vs. the majors. For new hires, upgrades, and the pay, just isn't going to happen for a very long time.

NightIP

You and I both know there's no way you could know that. A few years ago I got hired on with a carrier boasting 24 month upgrades. A year later I was on the street.

If your company has quick upgrades when you're hired, there's a strong chance you already missed the boat. I see longer upgrades at a company with strong growth potential as a good thing. Buy low, sell high, etc.

DC8DRIVER

Eighteen years is an impossible length of time to predict anything in the airline industry. While it is theoretically possible that what you say may come true (assuming the numbers are correct) huge changes are bound to happen to airlines that will totally change your statement.

The retirement age may change. The economy will get better/worse. Mergers will happen. Bankruptcies will happen. Upstarts will appear. The list goes on.

For the near future, retirements probably matter less than fleet growth at Atlas. Ten new planes at AA is 1% whereas the same ten planes at Atlas would be a 20% increase in our fleet. That kind of growth in the next year or two is fairly feasible here and not at the mega carriers.

That said, my crystal ball went inop years ago so what the heck do I know for sure? What the heck do any of us know for sure? In this industry "ya rolls the dice; ya takes your chances".

8

DC8DRIVER

Disregard my previous post.
WTFover is absolutely correct.
Everyone at Atlas seniority #800 and up should apply to AA, UA, DAL, and SWA immediately.

Thank you for your cooperation.

8

727gm

It might AFFECT Atlas.....

WTFover

I agree with everything you've said here. I am simply pointing out one piece of the puzzle in that Atlas has a much lower percentage of retirements and that has a direct impact on where one stands in seniority.

FWIW, here are the numbers:

9-12/2013 18
2014 38
2015 31
2016 29
2017 37
2018 33
2019 38
2020 33
2021 22
2022 27
2023 26
2024 19
2025 28
2026 20
2027 36
2028 25
2029 28
2030 16

I got tired of counting after that, but there are some on the list with retirement dates of 2050!

ATCsaidDoWhat

Not even close.

JonnyKnoxville

We lose 18 a year on average to disability and we will lose a lot more pilots as everyone starts hiring. Best of luck on the next job and please keep telling everyone you fly with the grass is greener elsewhere, especially if they are senior.