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Old 09-08-2017, 01:35 PM
  #16311  
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
They will get more and more desperate, as the retirements, hiring, and demand all kick in.

UAL plans to hire 1200 in 2018, DAL is 700-800 in 2017, so plan on more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements, AA planned to hire 750 in 2017, so plan more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements. FedEx is at about 800 for 2017. UPS is about at 300 for 2017. SWA I have no idea, but they are hiring.

So, just using the above, for 2018, conservatively expect 4000 pilots hired at The Big 6. The hiring in 2019 is expected to be greater than 2018, due to even more retirements. If the AA list is already down to 3000 minimally qualified pilots, expect the list to be closer to zero than 3000. The will get some new applicants every year, but the number of new pilots has been trending down for many years.

Many people have the same apps in at UAL/DAL/AA/FedEx/UPS/SWA, or various combinations of the above. Each time someone is hired at the above, it pulls multiple applications out of the system.
Last I heard, UAL adjusted their hiring number down to about 600 for 2018. Take hiring projections with a grain of salt.
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Old 09-09-2017, 08:33 AM
  #16312  
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Originally Posted by Tenacvols
This plus 1000....

As a former Atlas pilot who used Atlas to wait out my current employer, I'd much rather fly a 747 around the world then fly an RJ. I will say that I came to Atlas hoping to stay for the long haul, but after 9 months I thought it best to move on and was fortunate enough to have an opportunity with a great company who values their employees. I'd say about 2/3 of the captains that I've flown with here at SWA have said they'd love to have flown the 747. Going to be hard to stop guys from coming over to get a once in a lifetime opportunity to fly the whale while they wait for their dream job.

Just an observation from a former 5Y guy. I hope you guys get the contract that you deserve and are worth. It sounds like you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully that light isn't a runaway locomotive....

Good Luck, I'm pulling for you guys!!!
This is exactly the problem that I am talking about.

RJ guy gets to fly the Big Jet to exotic places, which is totally b*tchin' cool, until their dream career job comes along.

Then they're off to greener pastures and they hope we get a good contract.

Except "hope" won't do anything.

Following a strategy will.

The union has a strategy where ONE of their plans of attack is to see planes grounded because of lack of pilots. Atlas has significant growth plans. 5 more 747's this year alone. This month, as of today the 9th day of the month, there have been 40 trips listed in open time. That will equate to more than 120 open time trips for the month. This planned growth coupled with the attrition puts a real and measurable squeeze on Atlas operations. And THAT helps bring the company to the negotiation table.

What doesn't help bring them to the table is "hope" and RJ guys encouraging their buds to get their 747 type rating for the cool experience of flying the whale as a mid-career amusement.

8
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Old 09-09-2017, 08:53 AM
  #16313  
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Originally Posted by CaptainHvac
I agree with this 100% and I believe that the attrition numbers, or "not filing classes" argument was always weak and a losing strategy. They don't care what quality of applicant they are getting as long as they get them, and they are. -Wait for the economy to tank, cancel a 747 contract, buy another airline, whatever their strategy is and will be, it's better than ours of: "they can't fill classes! people are leaving! Dumpster fire!" Zero evidence of this working right now.
So what's YOUR strategy, Hvac? I'm pretty sure the union would be willing to listen to anyone who has a good plan. As I said, the attrition thing is just ONE of many strategies that have working right now.

I have been flying DHL planes for over 20 years now and I know for a fact that if even one DHL plane fails to fly, the Germans will be talking to Purchase about it.

One other thing to consider is that, due to the chaos at Atlas while they move crew scheduling and maintenance control to CVG, the number of contractual violations continue to rise. Atlas has been on the verge of a "major status quo violation" for the past year and edge closer every day.

The Teamsters are more than ready to pull the trigger on a status quo violation strike which would ground a majority of (hopefully ALL of) the DHL and Amazon flights out of CVG.

THAT will get some movement.

What do you suppose the alternative is to 1224's plans?

Hope? Lanyards? Bag stickers? Give up?

8
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Old 09-09-2017, 09:52 AM
  #16314  
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Originally Posted by DC8DRIVER
This is exactly the problem that I am talking about.

RJ guy gets to fly the Big Jet to exotic places, which is totally b*tchin' cool, until their dream career job comes along.

Then they're off to greener pastures and they hope we get a good contract.

Except "hope" won't do anything.

Following a strategy will.

The union has a strategy where ONE of their plans of attack is to see planes grounded because of lack of pilots. Atlas has significant growth plans. 5 more 747's this year alone. This month, as of today the 9th day of the month, there have been 40 trips listed in open time. That will equate to more than 120 open time trips for the month. This planned growth coupled with the attrition puts a real and measurable squeeze on Atlas operations. And THAT helps bring the company to the negotiation table.

What doesn't help bring them to the table is "hope" and RJ guys encouraging their buds to get their 747 type rating for the cool experience of flying the whale as a mid-career amusement.

8
I understand where you are coming from 8, but the flow of " drive by " guys and gals aren't going to stop because of the unions wants and desires , the allure of the 747 is strong indeed .
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Old 09-09-2017, 01:36 PM
  #16315  
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Originally Posted by 727C47
I understand where you are coming from 8, but the flow of " drive by " guys and gals aren't going to stop because of the unions wants and desires , the allure of the 747 is strong indeed .
Well it's also not going to stop when the "drive by" pilots keep crowing about how cool it to stop by Atlas for a year of fun.

Most here are onboard with the union. Unfortunately, some of the transient pilots seem to not really care to help pull in the same direction as us "lifers" because of their temporary career stop intentions.

I suppose I could live with that if it weren't for their recruiting efforts that run in the opposite direction of our strategy.

8
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Old 09-09-2017, 01:50 PM
  #16316  
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As mentioned earlier-somewhere, as long as planes are moving, then that means longer negotiating. Years to go.
New hires in class, some wanting to stay, some knowing they can move on, and Upgrades, help keep these planes moving. And of course those choosing to VX (a minority). When someone asks me when I plan to upgrade to the 76 or stay on the 74, I say "I'll upgrade when I get to vote on a contract".
I'm trying to do my part. 😉
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Old 09-09-2017, 01:54 PM
  #16317  
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Originally Posted by DC8DRIVER
Well it's also not going to stop when the "drive by" pilots keep crowing about how cool it to stop by Atlas for a year of fun.

Most here are onboard with the union. Unfortunately, some of the transient pilots seem to not really care to help pull in the same direction as us "lifers" because of their temporary career stop intentions.

I suppose I could live with that if it weren't for their recruiting efforts that run in the opposite direction of our strategy.

8
I hear you and respect where you are coming from , the 747 ACMI's in general are becoming de facto finishing schools for the major freights and legacies who like that long haul experience on a prospective hires resume, I hope you gents get the good contract you most assuredly deserve ,cheers out.
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Old 09-09-2017, 03:13 PM
  #16318  
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Originally Posted by NoJoy
As mentioned earlier-somewhere, as long as planes are moving, then that means longer negotiating. Years to go.

New hires in class, some wanting to stay, some knowing they can move on, and Upgrades, help keep these planes moving. And of course those choosing to VX (a minority). When someone asks me when I plan to upgrade to the 76 or stay on the 74, I say "I'll upgrade when I get to vote on a contract".

I'm trying to do my part.


Waiting to upgrade won't do much, it'll just drive upgrades more junior. If everyone delayed, upgrades would be awarded in reverse seniority order.

That being said, if you're senior to me, I support your plan 100%.
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Old 09-09-2017, 03:36 PM
  #16319  
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I'll do what I can my friend. 😀
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Old 09-09-2017, 08:43 PM
  #16320  
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DC8, my god. You can't honestly expect people to stop making a POSITIVE career move (to Atlas from 135/regional) for themselves because the old guard at Atlas perceives themselves "stuck" and that it will hinder their negotiating potential. I haven't seen anyone here encouraging anyone to do anything, just honest assessment of this place. As hard as this is for you to stomach, it is infinitely better than a regional, and for a young guy, it can even be fun. I didn't get the memo that part of the "Union's strategy " as you put it, is to lie to people when they ask about life here.
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