Seneca Pilot

Amazon has the cost controlling skills to make DHL look like a wealthy teenager throwing money around on spring break. Ask anyone in the trucking, or freight brokering business how Amazon operates.

boeingdvr

Who cares. Whipsaw is the name of the game. It’s not yours, just your turn. Get a side hustle for real money.

wjcandee

Your observations about the CEO were funny!!


I had a different take on the dates of the relationship with Amazon. I think, realistically, that Atlas is likely to be operating the remaining 17 767-300s at least to 2026 - 2028.

(You doubtless know the facts below; I'm just stating them here to line up the logic of my thinking...)

The Titan/Andromeda 767-300 leases to Amazon were for 10 years each from date of commencement. N1997A (Amazon One) went into service roughly August 2016 and N1487A (the final one) went into service in November 2018. So I was adding 10 years to each of those dates to get a range of lease expirations on the 767s. On the operating side, the CMI was for 7 years, extendable to 10 at Amazon's option. And of course the CMI agreement as to any particular aircraft (but not its lease) is terminable by Amazon for convenience, so it could be done 3 months from now if they wanted it to be.


On the 737-800s for Amazon, the aircraft are leased by Amazon from GECAS, and operated by Southern pursuant to a CMI agreement with Amazon that lasts for 7 years (extendable by Amazon to 10). The first of those went into service in May 2019, and the 8th one just came aboard last month. Amazon can add more through May 2021. So, again, about a 2 year window from first to last.


Amazon finally exercised a portion of its warrants in AAWW this fall, so it now actually does own 4.99 percent of the shares of the company. I can envision Amazon using its ownership and its power as a major customer to bring the company to heel performance-wise (as it did by moving the CMI operation of two ships to ATSG), but it's not suicidal. It also could be in a position to force the replacement of management if it got really upset. On this basis, I would expect Amazon to extend the CMI agreements to 10 years on the 767s as the 7-year deadline approaches. So instead of being 2nd-half 2023 to end of 2025, I think they're really going to expire 2nd-half 2026 to end of 2028. Whether more 767s come Atlas's way is really going to depend, I think, on performance. I think Southern will get more 737s if Amazon decides to add anymore in the US, but bringing Sun Country into the mix and giving it 12 of the 20 737s was an indication that Amazon wasn't satisfied with Southern's performance. But -- at least at the moment -- I don't see Amazon being so unhappy with Atlas's performance on the 767s that it would be trying to find a new CMI operator to take all 17, despite the fact that folks like Amerijet, NAC and others are certainly blowing in Amazon's ear. I think Amazon would be more aggressive in trying to push its operator to do a better job -- or push its operator to change management -- before it would walk away.


(I more than occasionally have been wrong before, of course...)

zerozero

You make fair points.
And of course, time will tell.
I can almost guarantee there will be no improvement in Atlas/Southern performance until there's a complete "house cleaning" of upper and middle management.

Is Amazon truly satisfied with Atlas/Southern performance? Then why does ATI get so much of their flying? I think for now, Amazon is factoring in a "sunk cost" with Atlas. At some point they'll reach a point of diminishing returns UNLESS something (someone) is drastically changed.

JMHO.

wjcandee

Can't say that I disagree with any of your points!

Bellinbiker

I think amazon might be looking for a 4th 76 operator to follow the DHL footprint.

nitefr8dog

We had a Captain take voluntary leave a few years back and applied at Korean....they required him to have his gallbladder removed. Does that count?

arcla

I was hopeful for some insight from some of the 767 First Officers please.

I have been looking at the (767 CVG) November and December lines and had a few questions.

I see there are quite a few reserve lines based out of Tampa - how senior do those go as they aren't based in CVG? (YES I've read the forum and I know reserve goes senior!! Wondering if that applies when the reserve is not in the actual base?)

There are also numerous split lines that have night stops in Tampa - as the most junior guy on the CVG base would I have any hope of picking those up or does anyone have a rough estimate of when someone would be able to hold those (1/2/3/4 years ?)

Just trying to make an educated decision on Fleet choice. Appreciate any insight.

Elevation

I just took a look at the awards. The TPA reserve lines all went to guys who've been here for about 2 years or more. No split lines with overnights to TPA, at least not from my base. I was too lazy to pull the bid package and awards for other bases

arcla

Thank you for looking - much appreciated! That’s great info.
There are a handful (maybe 5 lines) out of the CVG base with Tampa overnights.