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Old 01-12-2018, 11:08 AM
  #5771  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
Big 8 (Big 4 + FedEx, UPS, JB, AK) have 64,000 pilots.

1% growth is 640 additional pilots per year.
2% growth is 1280 additional pilots per year.

Boeing estimate is 0.9% in N. America for the next 20 years.
You don't need more pilots to grow capacity.
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Old 01-12-2018, 11:17 AM
  #5772  
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True. But 0.9% is the pilot growth estimates and not ASM growth.
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Old 01-12-2018, 04:49 PM
  #5773  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
I am just stating what APC has reported. If you have more accurate numbers from the Airlines for 2018, I would welcome it.

Otherwise we are just stating opinions and forecasts. Each of us is entitled to his or her own opinion and forecast.
Agreed. Just be aware of any vested interest the reporting party may have. By far the best source is what you see first hand. Airplane deliveries, new routes, duty rigs, retirement age, and scheduling are fundamental to growth just to name a few. None of these factors leave me to believe we will see substantial growth in the future. Perhaps you can set me right with figures that contradict this. Sincerely, I appreciate anyone who can support an argument that proves otherwise if and only if it makes sense.
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Old 01-12-2018, 07:40 PM
  #5774  
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Originally Posted by TRZ06
Agreed. Just be aware of any vested interest the reporting party may have. By far the best source is what you see first hand. Airplane deliveries, new routes, duty rigs, retirement age, and scheduling are fundamental to growth just to name a few. None of these factors leave me to believe we will see substantial growth in the future. Perhaps you can set me right with figures that contradict this. Sincerely, I appreciate anyone who can support an argument that proves otherwise if and only if it makes sense.
I am just listing numbers here from the APC pages for each airline. Not the forums, rather just the airline pages. I would assume they are getting the announced forecast numbers, and the actual hires as reported from the Airlines. You may or may not believe the hiring forecasts by the Airlines, that is up to you. (Can you believe the actuals from the past year as reported by the Airlines?)

Whether they agree with the airplane deliveries, new routes, duty rigs, etc. I cannot say. I am just stating the numbers from the APC pages for each airline, nothing more.

For example, AA, with 14,503 pilots, is forecasting to hire 800 new pilots. With 528 manditory retirements, that would mean (800-528) = 272 above mandatory retirements. This is (272/14,503) = 1.9%

How much of that is forecast by the airline as other pilots leaving (early retirement, disability, quits, new hires not making it, etc., etc.) and how much is forecast by the airline as growth, I do not know.

Last edited by TransWorld; 01-12-2018 at 07:57 PM.
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Old 01-13-2018, 07:07 AM
  #5775  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
I am just listing numbers here from the APC pages for each airline. Not the forums, rather just the airline pages. I would assume they are getting the announced forecast numbers, and the actual hires as reported from the Airlines. You may or may not believe the hiring forecasts by the Airlines, that is up to you. (Can you believe the actuals from the past year as reported by the Airlines?)

Whether they agree with the airplane deliveries, new routes, duty rigs, etc. I cannot say. I am just stating the numbers from the APC pages for each airline, nothing more.

For example, AA, with 14,503 pilots, is forecasting to hire 800 new pilots. With 528 manditory retirements, that would mean (800-528) = 272 above mandatory retirements. This is (272/14,503) = 1.9%

How much of that is forecast by the airline as other pilots leaving (early retirement, disability, quits, new hires not making it, etc., etc.) and how much is forecast by the airline as growth, I do not know.
I don't think anyone knows exactly. Thats why you have to take these figures with a grain of salt. At the end of November 2018 we are forecast to require 13,287 pilots. Doesn't include management/training staff, those out on medical/disability, military or other types of LOA, etc. What we need versus what we have listed can be a big difference.
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Old 01-14-2018, 05:19 PM
  #5776  
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A few months ago during a Crew News, it was mentioned the company was looking at starting an internal recommendation program like Delta (where current pilots can "push" a person's resume to the top of the stack). Anyone here any more about that?
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Old 01-16-2018, 09:49 AM
  #5777  
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Class dates for 2018 - one class every two weeks through 11 Dec. All classes have 40 new hires unless otherwise stated.
All classes 40 pilots unless otherwise stated
9 Jan
23 Jan
6 Feb
20 Feb
6 Mar
20 Mar
3 Apr
17 Apr
1 May
15 May
29 May
12 Jun
26 Jun
10 Jul
24 Jul
7 Aug
21 Aug
4 Sep (30)
18 Sep (30)
2 Oct (30)
16 Oct (30)
30 Oct (30)
13 Nov (30)
27 Nov (20)
11 Dec
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Old 01-16-2018, 10:22 AM
  #5778  
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Originally Posted by Clint
Class dates for 2018 - one class every two weeks through 11 Dec. All classes have 40 new hires unless otherwise stated.
All classes 40 pilots unless otherwise stated
9 Jan
23 Jan
6 Feb
20 Feb
6 Mar
20 Mar
3 Apr
17 Apr
1 May
15 May
29 May
12 Jun
26 Jun
10 Jul
24 Jul
7 Aug
21 Aug
4 Sep (30)
18 Sep (30)
2 Oct (30)
16 Oct (30)
30 Oct (30)
13 Nov (30)
27 Nov (20)
11 Dec
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/a...1&d=1516130491
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Old 01-16-2018, 11:22 AM
  #5779  
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920? Damn.
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Old 01-16-2018, 11:29 AM
  #5780  
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That would be the best year of hiring since 1999.
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