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Old 11-05-2013, 06:24 AM
  #211  
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Good luck to everyone tomorrow!
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:16 AM
  #212  
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Originally Posted by ghilis101
Yes, back to AA. Good luck to all in getting their first choice. If we get hired at AA within the next year we'd have amazing seniority after the mass retirements. A buddy ran the numbers, top 12 percent give or take in like 15 years.
15 years from 2014-2028 AA retires 6,946 pilots. In that same 15 years US Airways retires 3,508. Total retired at both in 15 years is 10,454. Currently there are 14,800 pilots at both airlines.

10454 / 14800 x100 = 70.6% gone. So you'd be at the 30% mark, not 12%. Still a great position to be in though!
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:17 AM
  #213  
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Originally Posted by ghilis101
Face to face started last week, 2 day interview process. Rumor is usair already started packing up their phx headquarters and shifting to DFW... no clue on who would take the lead on hiring. In the meantime both airlines hiring is a good thing in that it doesn't negatively pit one airline against another in terms of positioning for the merger
Starting in Jan I believe all us air newhires are going to dfw for indoc.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:24 AM
  #214  
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Originally Posted by CanoePilot
Starting in Jan I believe all us air newhires are going to dfw for indoc.
I heard Feb was the last class that was scheduled for PHX.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:46 AM
  #215  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
15 years from 2014-2028 AA retires 6,946 pilots. In that same 15 years US Airways retires 3,508. Total retired at both in 15 years is 10,454. Currently there are 14,800 pilots at both airlines.

10454 / 14800 x100 = 70.6% gone. So you'd be at the 30% mark, not 12%. Still a great position to be in though!
Youre right, those numbers make sense.

So maybe they grow another 2,000 pilots or so and people retire at 60ish, maybe we'd be looking at around top 20%?
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:38 PM
  #216  
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Originally Posted by duder
I understand what you are saying but every seniority number counts so with every new class that starts, the less interested I become.
So, where are you now?
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:44 PM
  #217  
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Originally Posted by ghilis101
Youre right, those numbers make sense.

So maybe they grow another 2,000 pilots or so and people retire at 60ish, maybe we'd be looking at around top 20%?
More like shrink. Looks at what Delta has done for the past few years. Combining the airlines means much greater efficiency. Thats why they want the merger. Efficiency = less pilots. Plus pretty much everyone is staying til 65.

In 15 years, I'd put money on the list being 20% smaller, not 20% bigger.

Maybe not if they manage to get this outsourcing RJ fiasco under control... but everyone knows thats not gonna happen. Maybe all the narrowbodies for the whole airline will be flown by outsourced pilots by then.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:49 PM
  #218  
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If air traffic is supposed to double in the next decade or 2, won't they be forced to grow? Unless they decide to put wide bodies on everything, Emirates-style

FAA forecast from FY12

This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2032.
Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase by 50 percent.

Last edited by ghilis101; 11-05-2013 at 12:55 PM. Reason: FAA...
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Old 11-05-2013, 04:00 PM
  #219  
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9900 on AA's list. 8000 on property. On property currently 414 under 45. Company provides the next 20 yrs retirements.

To get to the top 15% of the AA list (8000) is 2032. Using 9900 it's 2031.

Assumes everyone stays to 65.
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:15 PM
  #220  
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Nice to hear being one of those gone in ten, but there's plenty of talk about a 65 plus some retirement now. Whether it be 67 or 70
but at some point we'll either be retired or dead, hopefully in that order!

Last edited by TRZ06; 11-05-2013 at 05:16 PM. Reason: spelling
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