Views on the pilot slowdown from FF customer
10-04-2012, 06:19 AM
#111
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Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
GF,
Yes. I understand that. Doesn't change the fact it's being done. With each year that passes, technology improves. Learjet just announced the first touchscreen flight deck, and Voice activated cockpit tech is coming as well. Many advances will be made in the next 15 years. 17 years ago the 777 entered service. At the time it was considered "state of the art". Compare that to today's dreamliner flight deck. How many pilot functions have been automated between those two types?
Where do you think we will be in another 15 years. We joke on one type I fly that that non-flying pilot on one of they types I fly could sit in crew rest with an altitude preselect, landing light switches, an altimeter, and a radio tuning head/hand mike and complete everything they need to do, which really isn't too far from the truth.
Is part 91 different from 121? Sure. Is part 25 cert different from 23? Sure. But generally speaking what happens in GA generally trickles don (or up) to larger types and operations.
Yes. I understand that. Doesn't change the fact it's being done. With each year that passes, technology improves. Learjet just announced the first touchscreen flight deck, and Voice activated cockpit tech is coming as well. Many advances will be made in the next 15 years. 17 years ago the 777 entered service. At the time it was considered "state of the art". Compare that to today's dreamliner flight deck. How many pilot functions have been automated between those two types?
Where do you think we will be in another 15 years. We joke on one type I fly that that non-flying pilot on one of they types I fly could sit in crew rest with an altitude preselect, landing light switches, an altimeter, and a radio tuning head/hand mike and complete everything they need to do, which really isn't too far from the truth.
Is part 91 different from 121? Sure. Is part 25 cert different from 23? Sure. But generally speaking what happens in GA generally trickles don (or up) to larger types and operations.
No one is denying the technology exists. But the fact remains that the new technology costs mega bucks. Airlines don't like spending money. In the airline business, 777 technology is still pretty state of the art. Just becuase the technology may exist in 15 years, doesn't mean it will be applied in 15 years. You can't instantly apply technology to the airline world. It takes YEARS of jumping through hoops and spending millions of dollars just to get something approved. And the FAA moves at a snails pace.
10-04-2012, 07:48 AM
#112
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: 767A (Ret)
Posts: 6,248
FlyerJosh,
No one is denying the technology exists. But the fact remains that the new technology costs mega bucks. Airlines don't like spending money. In the airline business, 777 technology is still pretty state of the art. Just becuase the technology may exist in 15 years, doesn't mean it will be applied in 15 years. You can't instantly apply technology to the airline world. It takes YEARS of jumping through hoops and spending millions of dollars just to get something approved. And the FAA moves at a snails pace.
No one is denying the technology exists. But the fact remains that the new technology costs mega bucks. Airlines don't like spending money. In the airline business, 777 technology is still pretty state of the art. Just becuase the technology may exist in 15 years, doesn't mean it will be applied in 15 years. You can't instantly apply technology to the airline world. It takes YEARS of jumping through hoops and spending millions of dollars just to get something approved. And the FAA moves at a snails pace.
Which one will the CEO choose?
10-04-2012, 07:50 AM
#113
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Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Upfront cost is indeed the real obstacle, not technology. Imagine some bean counter telling the CEO: "We can spend a bundle to automate cockpits and that will pay for itself in about 20 years, or we can slash wages & benefits and save money right now. Somebody will still take the job."
Which one will the CEO choose?
Which one will the CEO choose?
10-04-2012, 08:20 AM
#114
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 7,017
GF,
Yes. I understand that. Doesn't change the fact it's being done. With each year that passes, technology improves. Learjet just announced the first touchscreen flight deck, and Voice activated cockpit tech is coming as well. Many advances will be made in the next 15 years. 17 years ago the 777 entered service. At the time it was considered "state of the art". Compare that to today's dreamliner flight deck. How many pilot functions have been automated between those two types?
Where do you think we will be in another 15 years. We joke on one type I fly that that non-flying pilot on one of they types I fly could sit in crew rest with an altitude preselect, landing light switches, an altimeter, and a radio tuning head/hand mike and complete everything they need to do, which really isn't too far from the truth.
Is part 91 different from 121? Sure. Is part 25 cert different from 23? Sure. But generally speaking what happens in GA generally trickles don (or up) to larger types and operations.
Yes. I understand that. Doesn't change the fact it's being done. With each year that passes, technology improves. Learjet just announced the first touchscreen flight deck, and Voice activated cockpit tech is coming as well. Many advances will be made in the next 15 years. 17 years ago the 777 entered service. At the time it was considered "state of the art". Compare that to today's dreamliner flight deck. How many pilot functions have been automated between those two types?
Where do you think we will be in another 15 years. We joke on one type I fly that that non-flying pilot on one of they types I fly could sit in crew rest with an altitude preselect, landing light switches, an altimeter, and a radio tuning head/hand mike and complete everything they need to do, which really isn't too far from the truth.
Is part 91 different from 121? Sure. Is part 25 cert different from 23? Sure. But generally speaking what happens in GA generally trickles don (or up) to larger types and operations.
FJ,
Technology is indeed improving at an impressive rate but we will probably have at least two beating hearts on the flight deck for the foreseeable future ( I know - no such thing) for many reasons:
1. Redundancy - which is really safety.
2. Computers - We still have the blues screen of death and other computer failures.
3. Remote operation via ground controllers. This will never cut it - zit faced teenage hackers and terrorists would all drool at the opportunity to hack into the network and take control of a jet. Not to mention interference - intentional and/or natural.
4. Insurance companies.
5. Skittish passengers.
6. Financial - much cheaper to open a pilot factory in India, China, or the PI and start cranking out really cheap labor. This is the medium term threat to Pilot careers.
Scoop - My 2 cents
10-04-2012, 11:18 AM
#115
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,839
No. I'm saying CRM is no where near as effective with one pilot in the flight deck vs two. Does the military operate the C-40, C-5, C-17, C-130, KC-10, or KC-135 single pilot? Fighters aren't really relevant to the conversation. They don't carry passengers, & have an ejection system. But all the planes I mentioned are very similar to airliners of today.
It was said that you can't have CRM with a guy on the ground = False.
CRM effectiveness isn't tied exclusively to how many people are in the cockpit, but rather how effectively the tenets of CRM flow between the varied numbers and or QUALITY of CRM.
You say fighters are not relevant to the conversation - so take that out of it. Do you not believe that you practice CRM with CSAs, your Operations/dspatchers, or ground crew? You seem to suggest that CRM only exists between the CA and FO. Do you also suggest that CRM increases strictly with the number of people in the cockpit? So 3 is better than 2, 5 is better than 3, etc....?
USMCFLYR
10-04-2012, 11:37 AM
#117
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,134
I've been in crashpads with pilots from both of those other demographics. Funny, they were under WORSE work rules for reserve pilots than I was.
There's simply too many variables involved to narrow it down to just ONE demographic that'll it'll run ragged.
10-04-2012, 03:54 PM
#118
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Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,197
Besides, in a flight of fighters, poor CRM can be voted on by leaving! Johnso29, try leading a six-ship to a night A/R for an atlantic crossing and have an emergency in one of the flight, send him back and bring up the airborne spare to join up.
C-5 crews are about 9-12, it is not just CRM, but a management drill. Done both.
GF
C-5 crews are about 9-12, it is not just CRM, but a management drill. Done both.
GF
10-04-2012, 04:00 PM
#119
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,930
Nice idea, but no. Regardless of how "poor" CRM might exist in a flight of two, leaving your formation is a CRM foul that is inexcusable and tops whatever else might be going on to inspire it.
10-04-2012, 04:24 PM
#120
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 16
The problem is NOT the technology. It's the $$$$$. Everyone wants NEXTGEN, but no one wants to pay for it. My gawd, most Legacy's are flying around 20-40 yeat old airplanes. Most JUST installed GPS within the last 5 years. Most GA airplanes have better technology then airliners. And do you really think the FAA will just sign off an single pilot ops for 121 airline flying? HA!!!!! We are still working under 1960's ATC technology. Look how long it's taking to get new FTDT regs!!
So it really doesn't matter if the technology exists. The FAA moves at a snails pace. The airline industry is one with razor thin margins, and they won't risk those on super expensive remote control airliners that still don't have all the bugs worked out. It will be 30 years MINIMUM before it's even touching the airline biz.
So it really doesn't matter if the technology exists. The FAA moves at a snails pace. The airline industry is one with razor thin margins, and they won't risk those on super expensive remote control airliners that still don't have all the bugs worked out. It will be 30 years MINIMUM before it's even touching the airline biz.
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