eaglefly

Looks like the MIA reps may be replaced soon and a effort now is officially underway to boot the LAX reps. One ORD rep may soon need to be replaced because of LTD limits.

This could change the make-up of the BOD completely to more hard-core and make any future agreements more difficult to even get to the membership as it should be. Most agree that no more sub-standard agreements should get past the BOD as that was the message the membership sent with the ratification rejection.

If anything, it looks like things are going to become even more polarized as we get toward the holidays.

AA gear puller

Here is my take on what's about to happen.

1. Lane allows AMR to dump the pilot contract. AMR in typical school yard bully fashion threatens us with nuclear war unless we approve a last ditch proposal.

2. APA membership rejects.

3. December exclusivity deadline looms with AMR management increasingly desperate.

4. A. Lane grants AMR motion to extend exclusivity for the full 18months, where all the stops are pulled to get us to agree to something so they can field a POR.
Or.
B. Lane terminates exclusivity and Parker is allowed to present a POR with APA on board with a CLA in place. A LCC takeover is then a real possibility.

AA claims to want to exit BK as an independent. APA knows that we cannot get a Delta style contract while in bankrupcy. Therefore, in my opinion, the idea is to try and hold out with the 1113 in place in the HOPE that AMR will be able to exit and then immediately enter in to section 6.
AA can't take delivery of the 787 without an agreement ( or so I'm told).. There are a lot of variables coming in to play that is granting us leverage we have never before had. If we do a serious gut check and hold the line I think there is some serious short term pain on the horizon with some long term gain around the corner.

Clear as mud?

eaglefly

I consider 1. highly likely. 2. would require another capitulation by the new APA president and BOD which would result in bedlam if any such NLBFO (New Last, Best Final Offer) was another sub-standard bill-of-goods devoid of final language and littered with gaping holes for abuse. At that point, the whole process might collapse while blanket recalls occurred and an entire new representational structure was rebuilt. That could take months.

At that point 3. would almost certainly come and go and then yes, the creditors would have to decide whether to stick with the limping can-kickers or try a new tack. At any rate, I think it prudent that the pilots should expect AMR to make good on their threats of uncertainty and pain. Most aboard should plan on no life for awhile and those junior should prepare for the possibility of no paycheck.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if they played the nuclear option of the threat of fragmentation should the pilots not capitulate to their demands. The concept of using terror and fear against the pilots has been in play and that may escalate. Nothing should surprise AA pilots at this point.

aa73

Agree with Eaglefly. Lane will not allow the contract to be abrogated. His strategy now will be to delay ruling so that AA/APA can give birth to Son of LBFO.

Lane is under pressure from the UCC to get a contract done.

AA gear puller

I believe he absolutely will allow abrogation.

aa73

It is definitely within the realm of possibility. I am prepared for abrogation. The only reason I don't think he'll do it is because of what I read between the lines from his denial last week. Despite the spin from the company and industry experts, the judge denying abrogation based on those two things speaks VOLUMES, loud and clear: the judge does not want to abrogate, under pressure from the UCC.

Keep in mind this is JMO and will gladly admit if I'm wrong.

eaglefly

As stated in my previous post, I consider abrogation more likely then not. It allows AMR a much wider threat selection then without it, but in the interest of avoiding excessive conflict for the near future, Lane MIGHT admonsih both parties to not go overboard and behind the scenes I'll bet the creditors are as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Regardless of what Lane says, I think how hot AA becomes depends on how high AMR turns the gas knob up. Actual existance under 1113 is uncharted territory for all, not just pilots. I just don't see a resolution as long as AMR clings to that LBFO and its "required" economics as a gauntlet and unless and until flexibility there happens, we're just kicking the can and limping along...........I don't think we all can do that forever as BK only lasts for so long.

I know I can do it for 8 months though or until furlough whichever occurs first.

Mesabah

I believe the contract will be abrogated as well, the question is what will be the limit on what AMR can get away with in terms of imposed conditions. Obviously, there are other laws governing that and the judge will be throwing out the RLA will his ruling. It's akin to a company filing bankruptcy and using it to pay its workers below minimum wage. The bankruptcy judge virtually has no limits on his power, however, it will be up to an appellate judge to determine what those limits are.

I would be getting outside council on this as well, I would not trust union attorney's, they have already bungled much of this case so far.

ForeverFO

I almost want him to allow abrogation. Do it sooner rather than later vs. a prolonged teeth-pulling of fake negotiations where AMR continues to "kick the can" with the ultimate goal of seeing the APA cave to a grossly substandard deal. We gave it up in '03, and they're thinking, "they'll cave again. Scare them enough, they'll roll over."

tsquare

So you are saying that the attorneys that the independent union has hired are not very good? I mean, there is no conflict of interest, those lawyers aren't working for anybody else.. ostensibly... and (in your words) they bungled the case) Hmmmmm THAT is very interesting. How do you know that the next attorneys will be any better? Maybe ALPA doesn't suck as bad as everybody thinks. Naaaaahh couldn't be THAT..