satpak77

The news outlets have quieted down. What is the latest water cooler talk

Thank You

Soi Dog BKK 1

Here ya go. Don't know who he is but you said water cooler right?
Ray Neidl, an airline analyst with Maxim Group, said he rates the probability of a US Airways-AMR merger at 90 percent, but says it may well happen after bankruptcy.

eaglefly

That "before or after" question could go either way. It's my understanding AMR can't get out of BK until it has CONSENSUAL agreements with all 3 unions. If one or more continue to upset the apple cart, the exclusivity period might expire before this situation can be reorganized. Currently that's September, but could be extended, but only till May 2013 (18 months) and then the circling sharks can move in.

If others get their foot in that door, then all bets are off and the best plan likely to produce the top bucks short and long-term usually wins. TWU has today and tomorrow at the table and the APA is back at for Wed-Friday. Way more pessimism about negotiations then optimism. Rumor has it as many as 200 pilots will take early retirement on July 1, but I'd be surprised if it were that many............then again if the term sheet hits, I wouldn't. I think more and more older and senior are realizing that U merger or not, term sheet or TA, it might be time to say goodbye. If the realities of existance under the term-sheet conditions happens, I think the exit line will have a wider range of age and seniority.

I think we'll know something more by late Friday unless they continue more bargaining, but I question whether any TA that results can pass membership ratification.

satpak77

Me wonders if they are waiting until June 22 ruling

Tomahawk58

Just a clarification or two. Consensual agreements are NOT a requirement to exit BK, but clearly the goal is to get them particularly with the pilots and the mechanics. While there isn't a hill of bean different between the AA and US offers other than a slightly higher pay raise with US. That being said, I think you'll see movement by week's end. To Eaglefly's point on TA passage, if folks are expecting to get a DAL contract during the BK process, it's not happening. You could see some increased pay rates with a 6 year contract, maybe fewer furloughs even though the number for the APA is quite small relative to other employee groups. I see a combine AA/US as a model for long-term stagnation. If you have a combined pilot force of nearly 15,000, the only movement will be through attrition.

The Judge's ruling comes a week from this Friday, so we'll see how things unfold.

My prediction is still AA acquiring B6 and maybe another carrier shortly after exiting BK by the end of 2012.

eaglefly

You may be correct in that consensual agreements aren't a requirement, but I have difficulty seeing a successful restructuring under imposed term sheets. Even if all other aspects were equal from a U merger vs. an AMR stand alone, the stability of all 3 union agreements with Parker would weigh extremely heavily with the creditors depending on how the operation is affected by the tyranny of the term sheets. I think a post term sheet AA is uncharted territory for all parties.

This statement couldn't be farther from the truth, although I understand why you cling to it as apparently you've elected to go in a different direction then standing shoulder-to-shoulder with 95% of the AA pilot group. The scope and job protections alone make the term sheet and U agreements a world apart. From my assessment, the AMR term sheet RJ and code-sharing provisions allow for the wholesale destruction of the careers of bottom half of the pilots seniority list........

...that being said, I'd HOPE we see movement. I'll agree with your assessment that a DAL contract is unrealistic, but I see the exact opposite you do, with possible stagnation under the merger scenario for only an 18-36 month period, but with AMR's term sheet, massive pilot reductions as the majority of the claimed 20% tombstone expansion will be via domestic larger RJ's, essentially continuing the concept of AA strengthening its competitors at AA's expense. We've already handed Boston and San Juan over on a silver platter and the stand alone plan ensures ORD is next as it morphs into a large RJ base for others and small AA International hub. Remember, AA has no expansion aircraft slated for 6 years and in that time, there will be hundreds of new larger RJ's flying much more of AA domestic. The open-ended code-share provisions basically allow others to claim the remainder of AA domestic leaving nothing but charred earth and perhaps 40-50% less pilots. AFAIC, there simply IS NO worse senario then that and I think 4000 junior AA pilots will agree. In fact, I think you could add another 1500 or so current captains who'd be back to F/O to finish out the majority of their careers as well.

Yes, I've heard the rumors and rumblings of that, yet the stand-alone plan seems to be big on hypotheticals like this, but short on facts and/or how to get there. Again, if I had my druthers, AA WOULD stand alone, pass up U entirely and grow internally and I have been desperately looking for something that can give me some confidence, but as of today, I'm as empty-handed as I was on November 29. Ahh, but what the heck..........it's only been 6 1/2 months and perhaps the 95% of the pilots who are also bankrupt of confidence will receive some message they can believe before next November 29th ?

Some pilots talk of possibly jeopardizing our "claim" should we not agree to a contract and that may or may not happen. Others tell us that per pilot, that claim would be equal to perhaps 1 years pay per pilot, but the damage of agreeing to a long term, scope dead contract could affect the majority of pilots by 3 or 4 times that amount over the next 10 years.....well, at least those still employed, so risking the possibility of losing the BK claim vs. the high likelyhood of complete career decimation is a no-brainer. There are militants here that will vote down anything short of DAL, but I think many are reasonable. The devil will be in the details and there will be no smoke and mirror con-jobs this time.

IF (and that's a big if) a TA is produced, it will have to give the bottom 1/2 of the seniority list confidence there is a future for them, otherwise I predict it will be DOA, BK claim be damned. It will be picked apart in detail and will either float or sink and sould it sink, only add those more junior to the exit door conga line as they see the writing on the wall as to their lack of future.

Tomahawk58

Without rehashing some of our earlier give and take, let me say that I've live through both sides of the seniority battle. I recall getting my letter from Bob Crandall during the 1991 contract stating that my projected ascendency to captain would be around 6 years if we approved the contract. Of course it would go on to take 10.5 years before I actually checked out. I'm aware that's a whole lot earlier than some recent FO's but a lot later than mid 80's hires. We all know it's something of a gamble with this chosen profession.

Thankfully, it's been quiet and the specter of a stand alone AA plan has sent a lot of the US devotees to cover.

Time will tell whose proven the better guesser on the future of AA. I'm holding out for AA being in complete control of its future. I also expect LATAM to announce later this week or next that they're going with OW which will give an additional boost to our company.

Best to all!

AAer for life and proud to be so!

Flyby1206

Im sure LATAM will join OW, since LAN was the driving force behind the merger. That will really put South America on lockdown for AA/OW.

eaglefly

Yes, we all know the rule in this business that when it comes to advancement projections, promises mean little and there is no guaranteed rose garden. That being said, it would be unrealistic to expect the junior 60% of the pilots to willingly assist in their own destruction. The contract vote this time is for all intents and purposes a do-or-die vote for the bottom half, career-wise.

For me it's frighteningly simple; If a TA arrives, the first thing I'll look at are the scope provisions including both RJ's and code-sharing. If it is still skull and crossbones, I won't have to bother with the hassle of reading the rest of TA and will take my chances with whatever outcome my "no" vote produces. Now I expect many pilots to consider the other aspects as part of a total package, but I'll bet there are several thousand alone that will do what I do.

After all, who cares what the pay rate is, if they're unemployed in 12-24 months, furloughed for years, are bumped back to F/O or never make captain in the first place ?

Those 4 considerations could encompass the majority of the pilot group !

Scope and job security are the foundation of any contract and is, in effect, the very demonstration of commitment to an airlines pilots from management that management wants of its pilots. That concept has been a one-way street for more then 10 years and AA in none stronger for it, in fact, quite the opposite. As for any defections of U support, most don't want U, but have no better option. Without both a commitment from AMR and a business plan of confidence, I don't expect enough of a change there to matter and U will stay the quiet horse saving its energy drafting the situation until the opportune time to slingshot around to win prior to BK exit.

AMR is still the lead horse, but will its jockey miscalculate both his effect on his own horse (the employees) and the abilities of the horse behind him he's discounting as no threat ?

I'll bet the bettors in the stands (creditors, investors) would happily exchange a losing ticket before the race finishes, if it means a payout vs. a loss.

Bad-Andy

Can you clarify how exactly the Term Sheet/USAirways agreement is one iota better than the AA offer? Have you actually read the POS that you guys agreed to with Parker? It is a joke. It is concessionary off of our POS LOA 93 (which was bankruptcy era 10 years ago). Your brain trust in DFW fell hook, line, and sinker for Parker's line. Ya'll got in such a hurry to agree to anything (at least I like to think it was because it was rushed, not out of arrogance at being the "Almighty APA"), you signed off on an even bigger Crap Sandwich than you could have gotten at home. Mark my words, if this merger comes to pass, your beloved term sheet will come back to haunt us all.

For once, I find myself agreeing with Tomahawk. At least you know the devil you're dancing with now -- the one you want to climb into bed with is A LOT worse. Wake up and realize the boys from PHX are no friend of labor (regardless of what they say...).