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Old 03-29-2012, 06:25 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
...and for the record, I'm in the "moderate" category and one who accepts that significant pilot contractual changes including more larger RJ's, pension changes, improved scheduling efficiency among other things are necessary. If Tom can't convince a moderate, how will AMR convince the militants ?
Eagle, You seem like a rational guy. And I know that AA has been at a perceived disadvantage vs. it's peers on this issue. but.....

You gotta change this thinking. Large outsourced RJ's are not necessary for AA to survive. Outsourced RJ's in general have been a colossal blunder on the part of mainline management. The haven't and won't ever admit that mistake, but it is.

Let them order all they want, with AA pilots flying them. The cost savings are wiped out and overrun compared to the dilution of your brand when 10 different companies are flying your people by folks who could care less about AA.

You're going to have significant changes for sure. PBS etc.etc...

But this camel is extraordinarily difficult to get out of the tent, and I guarantee that it will put you, personally, on the street if he gets in.




BTW, This Tomahawk guy. Has AA management gotten so desperate that they've assigned a guy to come on a freaking anonymous forum? Kinda sad and scary all at once.
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Old 03-29-2012, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Jay5150
Eagle, You seem like a rational guy. And I know that AA has been at a perceived disadvantage vs. it's peers on this issue. but.....

You gotta change this thinking. Large outsourced RJ's are not necessary for AA to survive. Outsourced RJ's in general have been a colossal blunder on the part of mainline management. The haven't and won't ever admit that mistake, but it is.

Let them order all they want, with AA pilots flying them. The cost savings are wiped out and overrun compared to the dilution of your brand when 10 different companies are flying your people by folks who could care less about AA.

You're going to have significant changes for sure. PBS etc.etc...

But this camel is extraordinarily difficult to get out of the tent, and I guarantee that it will put you, personally, on the street if he gets in.




BTW, This Tomahawk guy. Has AA management gotten so desperate that they've assigned a guy to come on a freaking anonymous forum? Kinda sad and scary all at once.
Well, I'm realistic. Regardless of whether the future is a term sheet imposition or membership ratification of a TA, AMR will get more large RJ's of a similar amount to the competition. Either path leads to the same destination. You're right though, it's all just concocted perception. I have some more likely bad news as well;

AMR has already announced AA will reduce the 738's from 160 to 150 seats that will allow elimination of 1 F/A. The term sheet (as the previous proposal) put the future A319's in pay band III paying perhaps $135-140.00 for captains @ 125 seats. If they remove a row of seats and block a couple of seats to provide a similar premium coach section as the 73, that aircraft drops to pay band II and another $10.00/hour or so to $120-125.00/hour. What that means is the bulk of the future mainline fleet (A319's and Neo's) that ISN'T taken over by large RJ's will be paying basically enhanced regional airline rates with a 70 hour gurantee and PBS. Check Jet Blue, Spirit, Frontier and others for comparison. AA is about to become a large regional for the majority of its pilots over the next 4-6 years and the above rates are for captains with some seniority (basic 401(k) too).

If realized, every F/O is basically finished career-wise here and it will put TREMENDOUS pressure on UAL and DAL to match that as AA might be able to set a price that forces others to either fly competing routes at a loss or match labor costs to be viable. This is what this managment is claiming it NEEDS going forward. Combined with 88-seat RJ's, you can see it's pretty much over and done with at that point, career-wise and what's left to stay for or defend. Again, what is really the desire here is busting unions once and for all (or the equivelent). It could be just another feeble example of "managing expectations" too. That's a process whereby management brings the employees to such low levels, it makes what would previously have been balked at, look good and then perhaps make the employees also feel good. That works when it's done over a short period of time, but far too much damage over a decade won't negate that now if you ask me. These are damaged employees and regardless of what occurs or who takes the reigns in the future, I don't see many picking flowers here.

As for Tom-Tom, unsure of whether he was dispatched here by others or took it upon himslef to shovel what he's shoveling, but it matters little. From my perspective, the overwhlming majority of pilots and in fact, employees aren't being fooled by such tomfoolery (pun intended) and know what the true desire is and that is why I'm advocating any consideration that provides a better deal for the most employees. Pilot wise, AA could become a great free type-rating school and a place to get 500-1000 large jet time to become competitive elsewhere though.

Maybe that will be their future forte ?

Last edited by eaglefly; 03-29-2012 at 08:06 PM.
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Old 03-30-2012, 05:14 AM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by gloopy
US+AA+all or part of an airline to be named later.

Lufthansa puts its JetBlue stake on the block - MarketWatch


BA seems to be in the habit of taking LH's leftovers lately (bmi).
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Old 03-30-2012, 05:43 AM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Well, I'm realistic. Regardless of whether the future is a term sheet imposition or membership ratification of a TA, AMR will get more large RJ's of a similar amount to the competition. Either path leads to the same destination. You're right though, it's all just concocted perception. I have some more likely bad news as well;

AMR has already announced AA will reduce the 738's from 160 to 150 seats that will allow elimination of 1 F/A. The term sheet (as the previous proposal) put the future A319's in pay band III paying perhaps $135-140.00 for captains @ 125 seats. If they remove a row of seats and block a couple of seats to provide a similar premium coach section as the 73, that aircraft drops to pay band II and another $10.00/hour or so to $120-125.00/hour. What that means is the bulk of the future mainline fleet (A319's and Neo's) that ISN'T taken over by large RJ's will be paying basically enhanced regional airline rates with a 70 hour gurantee and PBS. Check Jet Blue, Spirit, Frontier and others for comparison. AA is about to become a large regional for the majority of its pilots over the next 4-6 years and the above rates are for captains with some seniority (basic 401(k) too).

If realized, every F/O is basically finished career-wise here and it will put TREMENDOUS pressure on UAL and DAL to match that as AA might be able to set a price that forces others to either fly competing routes at a loss or match labor costs to be viable. This is what this managment is claiming it NEEDS going forward. Combined with 88-seat RJ's, you can see it's pretty much over and done with at that point, career-wise and what's left to stay for or defend. Again, what is really the desire here is busting unions once and for all (or the equivelent). It could be just another feeble example of "managing expectations" too. That's a process whereby management brings the employees to such low levels, it makes what would previously have been balked at, look good and then perhaps make the employees also feel good. That works when it's done over a short period of time, but far too much damage over a decade won't negate that now if you ask me. These are damaged employees and regardless of what occurs or who takes the reigns in the future, I don't see many picking flowers here.

As for Tom-Tom, unsure of whether he was dispatched here by others or took it upon himslef to shovel what he's shoveling, but it matters little. From my perspective, the overwhlming majority of pilots and in fact, employees aren't being fooled by such tomfoolery (pun intended) and know what the true desire is and that is why I'm advocating any consideration that provides a better deal for the most employees. Pilot wise, AA could become a great free type-rating school and a place to get 500-1000 large jet time to become competitive elsewhere though.

Maybe that will be their future forte ?
This is one part I haven't heard many people talk about!
United has around 150 Large RJs & 30 Q400s
Delta has around 250 large RJs
AMR has 47 Large RJs and had 39 Large T-Props
US Airways 110 large RJs

When looking at these numbers one need to consider that AMR is on average 30% smaller than United and Delta AMR would only be able to bring the large RJ count to somewhere between 105-175, This is still a huge number but is far less that the 255 they are asking for! These numbers coincide with the top graph in the link below, the numbers where pulled from the AMR initial 1113 filling to the courts earlier this week. One would assume that if a TA is reached it most likely include a clause on number of large RJ vs Mainline size and thus hopefully preventing AMR from shrinking AA much, but it's BK and these are uncharted territories!

More from American Airlines' filing to reject union contracts | Airline Biz Blog | dallasnews.com
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Old 03-30-2012, 06:30 AM
  #55  
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It should be obvious that more larger RJ's are coming to "feed" AA. The Eagle term sheet confidently increases the pay tables to include 76-seats, but is more hesitant on 88-seaters. I think it a certainty that E175's and Q400's will be part of the future AA feeder stable, but my hope at least is we can at the very least, prevent the 88-seaters. This is simply being realistic, painful as it is. Of course, WHO flies them and how many each one flies is up in the air.

In all honesty, this will be the most contentious subject regarding any TA (if one is ever realized). Sure, the APA can come to terms on a TA and the BOD can agree to send it for membership vote, but emotion is in play here and if it fails a membership vote (a virtual certainty if you ask me, without certain core issues addressed), the likely result is a term sheet imposition and then as I said before, that is the worst place for everyone here to be in as it will significantly increase instability. At that point, I think AA becomes more vulnerable to others, especially if the UCC becomes more skeptical of the internal AA plan as a result of that instability and seeks to terminate exclusivity. The other creditors may see the unions/employees go bananas and get nervous, looking hard at other options.

So far AMR hasn't really been negotiating and perhaps they're simply waiting for the end game to really move chips around the table. If not and their plan really is a TIOLI agenda, then I guess term sheet and increased instability it is. Where that leads, no one knows, but I can't see it being to anywhere good. Interesting to contrast two other articles from the DMN (not AMR union friendly BTW). In the one regading the APFA's reminder to their membership about illegal job-action activity, it states that the relationship between labor and managment can't get much worse and in APA President Bates clip of his communique to pilots, he asks what type of airline AMR expects moving forward. Questions could include;

Even if AMR can get most or all of their labor cost desires, will it offset potential damage to the product ?

Hostess could probably significantly cut the cost of twinkies by filling them with white glue, but what would they have compared to what everyone else is offering ?

A large portion........actually ANOTHER large portion of the AA product will soon go to the regional level and that left over will be far more questionable given the environment it may have to be produced in on the mainline side. Considering this likelyhood and the increase in code-share desires, perhaps AMR has indeed given up on the mainline AA employees as a whole and see's little point in investing in them in the future ?

Last edited by eaglefly; 03-30-2012 at 06:48 AM.
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Old 03-30-2012, 07:15 AM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Considering this likelyhood and the increase in code-share desires, perhaps AMR has indeed given up on the mainline AA employees as a whole and see's little point in investing in them in the future ?
Investors and lendors could feel the same way about AMR management.
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Old 03-30-2012, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by B757200ER
Investors and lendors could feel the same way about AMR management.
Agreed. Sadly, from my POV employees already have.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:24 AM
  #58  
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Ponder me this. If the judge goes along with AA's effort to reject the APA contract, does that include abolition of the agency shop?

Last edited by TXHillCountry; 03-30-2012 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
it will put TREMENDOUS pressure on UAL and DAL to match that as AA might be able to set a price that forces others to either fly competing routes at a loss or match labor costs to be viable.
No more so than Spirit, SkyBus, etc. have applied pressure--that is to say, almost zero. DAL doesn't necessarily want the bargain basement fare-seeker. Better to hone the product and capture the desired customer.

Should anything close to the term sheet prevail, it's not a stretch to expect that AA's product will continue down the crapper, and as a result, it will no longer be in the running for those lucrative high value customers willing to pay a premium for a better product.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by More Bacon
No more so than Spirit, SkyBus, etc. have applied pressure--that is to say, almost zero. DAL doesn't necessarily want the bargain basement fare-seeker. Better to hone the product and capture the desired customer.

Should anything close to the term sheet prevail, it's not a stretch to expect that AA's product will continue down the crapper, and as a result, it will no longer be in the running for those lucrative high value customers willing to pay a premium for a better product.
AA/DAL/UAL all are going after the same pool of travellers. The frequent flier elites and the corporate contracts. Skybus, Spirit, etc are seeking the visit-grandma-once-a-year fliers and those who just want the cheapest ticket possible. There is a big difference in these strategies and if AMR gets their costs drastically lower than DAL/UAL then they will be forced to follow, or risk losing business.

The onboard product only matters in the premium first and business classes, and AA will keep up with DAL/UAL in that respect. AA does have some bitter FAs, but so do DAL and UAL. None of the three are competing against the modelesque Singapore attendants for sure.
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