Gomerglideslope

...... “And as we’ve seen before in this situation, there may be opportunists who wish to acquire our company while we are in this situation,” he (Horton) said.

Clearly he is referring to Parker, and clearly doesn't like the idea. Fortunately for them they have a lot more cash on hand than DAL or NWA had upon entering BK so may not require much (if any) DIP financing...may make it easier to fend off USAir....wish them well.

gloopy

Though at the end of the day, just like DL, I suspect AA will end up merged anyway. DL didn't fight off the USAir merger because mergers are evil and they wanted to "keep DL my DL" or whatever. DL fought it off because they had their eyes on NWA all along. DL fought off a merger specifically so they could merge. Mergers are the reality of the industry right now and in many respects thats a good thing. There were (still are) way too many competing network carriers and way, way too much redundant "hub raiding" RJ capacity trying to move the world 50 to 70 seats at a time because the big money AmEx Black Card dot-commers all love that frequency, etc. So everyone orders a million RJ's and floods every city with hourly service to every hub and in the end no one wins and the entire network has high unit costs that more than out bleed the lower trip/segment costs.

AA/USAir actually does make sense from a network perspecive and the USAir/DL slot swap has at least seemed to pave the way for that. AA would keep all their network strengths as well as an increased western presence and domestic DC domination as well as re-strengthen NYC and BOS by getting the remaining USAir capacity as well as the shuttle, CLT, PHL and more international capacity as well.

The APA would be big enough by far to avoid another USAPA incident so I doubt the execs at either company are really too worried about that angle of it, especially with the leverage granted in bankruptcy.

Other possibilities are Alaska but less likely, maybe VX (even less likely but possible), or JB (with or without USAir). A merger is inevitable for AA IMO, and USAir and/or JB are the most likely candidates.

Releasemaster

This industry doesn't need more consolidation. Do you realize how packed planes are? This is the result of previous consolidation. Airlines can jack the fares anytime they want, they just use this consolidation line to cut back flying that doesn't need to be cut.

If your going to consolidate, it needs to be out of small hubs, (MEM, CVG, CLE), that probably won't be missed much, Not major hubsand personally I've seen too much of that already.

gloopy

There is still plenty of redundant capacity to reduce with more consolidation, as well as eliminating one or more competing networks. We still have RJ's raiding mainline and RJ markets and everytime you lose an independant legacy to a merger you lose that portion of the insanity. You also remove a major competitor from the fare wars. Fare increases to match price increases have been fairly successful of late, but if things get really tough they won't be as certain. Fewer carriers going forward mean greater long term pricing power.

Even regionals and "LCC's" are consolidating. We had way, way too much competition and still do really. It will be interesting to see how future capacity reductions play out. Either into sustainable mainline growth or start up ponzi schemes that are ignored until they reach critical mass.

Either way, there will be more mergers and possibly fragmentations across all sectors of the industry...legacy, LCC and regional.

MayDaze

Are you the Jerry Maguire of pilots? If this merger happens, all major airlines, pilots, and investors will make more money in the next ten years. We've been waiting over 30 years for these cards to fall right and finally make a buck in this industry, don't fail us now!