American Hiring Freeze
09-21-2024, 05:30 PM
#801
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,674
I wasn’t there at the early stages but do think dumping the A330ceos in the desert and paying to store them was dumb. I respect the fleet diversification argument. I also believe there is a reason that the A330neo has had terrible uptake by airlines and I suspect that’s because the economics on a new aircraft purchase make zero sense.
I’m neither a network planner nor an accountant, but there is a reason airlines keep picking the 787 and A350. We as pilots don’t have to like it but in a similar vein there’s a reason we’re getting a 321xlr and not a 757neo.
I’m neither a network planner nor an accountant, but there is a reason airlines keep picking the 787 and A350. We as pilots don’t have to like it but in a similar vein there’s a reason we’re getting a 321xlr and not a 757neo.
I’m not sure DL is loving their decision to go all AB WB right now
09-22-2024, 05:40 AM
#802
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Posts: 392
There's certainly logic to simplifying the fleet. It leads to greater interchangability (which means greater ability to adapt when storms hit and inbounds can't make it in to the hub, mx issues, etc.), lower fixed costs (buy aircraft and simulators in bulk), and variable costs (buy parts in bulk, lesser training costs for pilots and faster mx as mechanics can focus on fewer types and being more efficient).
On the buy side, I suspect the low aquisition cost of used A319's is much easier to get past the BOD and shareholders while simultaneously trying to chip away at the backlog of debt.
09-22-2024, 06:28 AM
#803
Speed Verified
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 1,135
to add an extra grain of granularity to your point, engine supplier plays a role as well. Having the ability to do heavy mx work in house is a massive benefit. My understanding is out of all the engine manufacturers, Rolls makes it difficult (and costly) to do business with because they want to perform all the mx themselves. Apparently that delayed orders from Delta.
On the buy side, I suspect the low aquisition cost of used A319's is much easier to get past the BOD and shareholders while simultaneously trying to chip away at the backlog of debt.
On the buy side, I suspect the low aquisition cost of used A319's is much easier to get past the BOD and shareholders while simultaneously trying to chip away at the backlog of debt.
Eng issues and A319 deals. One is the exact result of delaying the other. I think if Spirit didn't get hammered by the GTF fiasco, they'd be looking to chaff their 319s and AAL would gladly scoop them up.
09-22-2024, 06:56 AM
#804
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,215
And we will never see A350s here. No way we are going to cough up the cAAsh and get on the order books. We are hardly even a widebody international airline as it is. What are we going to do fly them between PHX and ORD? DFW to CLT?
09-22-2024, 12:02 PM
#805
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,254
.
- E195 Lease rate probably around $225k/month
- 4200 lbs/hr fuel burn on E2 on low end. Shorter routes will probably having you burn more.
- Decent used 319 lease rate? Maybe $75k (S80's were $1,500/month)
- 5300 lbs/hr fuel burn on A319
So conservatively cost neutral if you're lucky. Might as well just buy/lease more 319's for fleet commonality. The 195E2 has over 200 orders on backlog, you're not getting them for under production costs like Delta did the A220.
NWA's strategy was own a whole bunch of older DC9s and park them in the winter, and run them in the summer. It was basically an accumulator for their fleet allowing them to flex up when needed. Parking them cost next to nothing.
09-23-2024, 04:35 AM
#806
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2021
Position: FO
Posts: 232
Aren't Spirit's Airbuses/Airbii use the P&W engines? If so, that's not fleet commonality, but I may be wrong.
09-23-2024, 05:12 AM
#807
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,215
Below are segment averages:
.
So conservatively cost neutral if you're lucky. Might as well just buy/lease more 319's for fleet commonality. The 195E2 has over 200 orders on backlog, you're not getting them for under production costs like Delta did the A220.
NWA's strategy was own a whole bunch of older DC9s and park them in the winter, and run them in the summer. It was basically an accumulator for their fleet allowing them to flex up when needed. Parking them cost next to nothing.
.
- E195 Lease rate probably around $225k/month
- 4200 lbs/hr fuel burn on E2 on low end. Shorter routes will probably having you burn more.
- Decent used 319 lease rate? Maybe $75k (S80's were $1,500/month)
- 5300 lbs/hr fuel burn on A319
So conservatively cost neutral if you're lucky. Might as well just buy/lease more 319's for fleet commonality. The 195E2 has over 200 orders on backlog, you're not getting them for under production costs like Delta did the A220.
NWA's strategy was own a whole bunch of older DC9s and park them in the winter, and run them in the summer. It was basically an accumulator for their fleet allowing them to flex up when needed. Parking them cost next to nothing.
09-23-2024, 05:14 AM
#808
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: 320 Captain
Posts: 662
Years ago, pre covid, United and Spirit had a tenative deal for United to take some 319ceo's. Around 30 of them I believe. Same time as United was taking the ex China Southern (and later the Easyjet 319's). Spirit changed their minds.
09-23-2024, 05:19 AM
#809
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: 320 Captain
Posts: 662
After ongoing request from A.net members, here is an update on estimated aircraft current market valuations (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
In a post Covid world, the the big story in valuations is the considerable increase in older narrowbody values, largely driven by production problems at both Airbus and Boeing combined with limited parked inventory. As an example, an early life A320ceo today is valued almost double what it was in 2019!
Widebody types have also seen valuation firming including some older models such as 777-300ER as parked frames have returned to service and replacement types are limited and have long lead times with manufacturer backlogs.
Freighter values have largely remained strong as well, though down from their Covid peaks.
Pax
A220-100 - $21.0 - 35.8M, $160-280,000
A220-300 - $25.6 - 40.3M, $200-340,000
A319 – $6.9 - 26.4M, $40-270,000
A320 – $7.4 - 36.4M, $60-340,000
A320NEO - $35.3 - 54.8M, $250-440,000
A321 – $12.5 - 44.8M, $110-380,000
A321NEO - $44.3 - 64.7M, $300-490,000
A330-300 - $8.4 - 52.7M, $80-510,000
A330-900 - $69.5 - 113.2M, $520-760,000
A350-900 - $77.4 - 160.0M, $600-1,240,000
A350-1000 - $114.8 - 175.5M, $800-1,400,000
A380 - $12.6 - 62.3M, $180-620,000
B737-700 - $7.5- 24.2M, $50-250,000
B737-800 - $11.1 - 36.8M, $90-325,000
B737-900ER - $17.2 - 34.5M, $150-340,000
B737MAX-8 - $37.3 - 54.9M, $260,000-440,000
B737MAX-9 - $40.9.6 -57.9M, $300,000-460,000
B777-300ER – $25.7 – 86.5M, $310-920,000
B787-8 - $37.9 - 100.8M, $350-830,000
B787-9 - $67.1 - 148.5M, $450-1,040,000
B787-10 - $103.4 - 160.7M, $750-1,150,000
CRJ700 – $3.5 – 10.1M, $50-130,000
CRJ900 - $6.1 – 14.9M, $60-145,000
EMB175 – $7.6 – 28.4M, $60-230,000
EMB190 – $8.2 – 27.3M, $80-190,000
EMB190E2 - $21.3 - 35.8M, $180-280,000
ATR-72 – $3.2 – 22.6M, $50-200,000
In a post Covid world, the the big story in valuations is the considerable increase in older narrowbody values, largely driven by production problems at both Airbus and Boeing combined with limited parked inventory. As an example, an early life A320ceo today is valued almost double what it was in 2019!
Widebody types have also seen valuation firming including some older models such as 777-300ER as parked frames have returned to service and replacement types are limited and have long lead times with manufacturer backlogs.
Freighter values have largely remained strong as well, though down from their Covid peaks.
Pax
A220-100 - $21.0 - 35.8M, $160-280,000
A220-300 - $25.6 - 40.3M, $200-340,000
A319 – $6.9 - 26.4M, $40-270,000
A320 – $7.4 - 36.4M, $60-340,000
A320NEO - $35.3 - 54.8M, $250-440,000
A321 – $12.5 - 44.8M, $110-380,000
A321NEO - $44.3 - 64.7M, $300-490,000
A330-300 - $8.4 - 52.7M, $80-510,000
A330-900 - $69.5 - 113.2M, $520-760,000
A350-900 - $77.4 - 160.0M, $600-1,240,000
A350-1000 - $114.8 - 175.5M, $800-1,400,000
A380 - $12.6 - 62.3M, $180-620,000
B737-700 - $7.5- 24.2M, $50-250,000
B737-800 - $11.1 - 36.8M, $90-325,000
B737-900ER - $17.2 - 34.5M, $150-340,000
B737MAX-8 - $37.3 - 54.9M, $260,000-440,000
B737MAX-9 - $40.9.6 -57.9M, $300,000-460,000
B777-300ER – $25.7 – 86.5M, $310-920,000
B787-8 - $37.9 - 100.8M, $350-830,000
B787-9 - $67.1 - 148.5M, $450-1,040,000
B787-10 - $103.4 - 160.7M, $750-1,150,000
CRJ700 – $3.5 – 10.1M, $50-130,000
CRJ900 - $6.1 – 14.9M, $60-145,000
EMB175 – $7.6 – 28.4M, $60-230,000
EMB190 – $8.2 – 27.3M, $80-190,000
EMB190E2 - $21.3 - 35.8M, $180-280,000
ATR-72 – $3.2 – 22.6M, $50-200,000
09-23-2024, 05:24 AM
#810
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,215
Well it's confirmed then!
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