hercretired

Please turn off your late night UFO podcasts

every homeowner in American basically had their net worth (via home values) double in the last 3 years

COVID revenge travel is out, now it is just "travel." (shocker). No one cares about COVID anymore

Go try to buy a new car, full sticker or please get out of my dealership. Period the end. (recession?)

Restaurants are full

etc etc

do home builders "worry" that "everyone uses a mortgage to buy a house"

of course not

Do I, as an airline pilot, worry that everyone uses credit cards to travel

of course not

Turn the podcasts off

Cachaco

For every rebuttal, there is a counter.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/07/econo...res/index.html

The slowdown is most definitely already happening. It is only a question of how deep it gets.

And the reason for buying planes is twofold. Growth if the demand is there, or fleet replacement if it is not. Love how people get ultra exited about all those shinny new plane orders when they can be simply fleet renewal.

Cachaco

Wow. I don’t know which country you’re living in.

Car dealership activity has significantly slowed, discounts coming back, used car prices returned to normal values, for example.

You must be related to KJP 🙄.

Cachaco

Another 🫣.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/07/econo...res/index.html

tallpilot

I love the optimism.

The wealth from rising home values is vapor until the home is sold. Then it probably just gets rolled into a more expensive home except in the rare downsizing case.

This by extension is an issue with the theory that millennials have the biggest inheritance in the history of the country coming to them. Some of it is in retirement accounts but the majority is in real estate.

Home builders get cash from the mortgage company so no they don't worry about it but whoever is holding that paper sure better worry about it. Have we not seen this movie before?

Bubbles always feel good while they are raging. They also always pop. The harder prediction to get right is when.

JulesWinfield

Even if demand settles to pre-covid levels, the retirements will still happen and will continue to happen.

DogPit

Oh yes, trust the “experts”, they never get anything wrong.

hindsight2020

I wouldn't spend too much bandwith trying to change minds on this upper middle class echo chamber. It's a big blind spot, especially when couched in the apathy that K-economy bifurcation engenders in the first place. BL, never take vocational advice from someone above you on an MLM downline. Digressing.

To the other .mil poster, good for already having the reserve job lined up. Being on the hiring side of that wheelhouse, anecdotally things are starting to crank up again as separating AD types start panicking (and they are, good bad or indifferent). I've seen this musical chair boomerang stuff since the days of the Lost Decade, nothing new under the sun.

Lastly, as with everything in life, friendly reminder to not crap where others eat. We have memories longer than a single airline hiring cycle.

Good luck to all, ensure your elbows are safely tucked inside the carnival ride; and hey stop worrying about it, you already messed up when you chose to rely on a medical for primary HH income in the first place. #YOLO?

Cloudkickerr

Word salad. Yum!

biigD

I was just thinking that I should have worked at the post office for all this time - so much lower risk. But oh well, if I lose my medical I'll have to be content running my household on the upper 10% income I'll receive for doing ****-all for the next 20+ years. What a huge mistake.