AllYourBaseAreB

In reality that may, more or less, happen, but it’s a fools errand to try to look too closely at these numbers. Always, always!, bid positions you actually want, regardless if they are even in the vacancy announcement.

the initial vacancy numbers published by the company are completely meaningless except for that moment in time, in a vacuum. They are not obligated to fill any of the “published” positions or backfill vacated ones. The actual numbers will change everyday, without our knowledge, until there is an award.

WhyIFly

Exactly. With the new contract, the vacancy awards are SUPPOSED to be what will be awarded, but we will see how that goes.

The 787 PHL slots will most likely be filled, at least partially, with current 787 pilots from other bases that would rather be in PHL. That will create openings elsewhere for 787 FOs, especially MIA. MIA currently has the most junior 787 FOs. Coincidently, MIA also has the most junior 777 FOs.

Njflyguy

With PHL being an AA 787 base, how will the arrival of 30 more 787-9's coming in the next few years bode for the 787 bids?

Name User

For PHL
Summer '23
CA | FO
89...156

Summer '24 forecast
CA | FO
176...280

-----------------------------
System wide
2023:
517...1119

2024:
593...1132

Also system wide it looks like we'll be +1000 pilots vs where we were this year overall. They cut our summer 2023 schedule by 5%, so hopefully that means a fuller schedule next year.

Basically, good times.

TankerDriver

Remember, WB FO opens up a much larger pool of applicants. There are many more pilots willing to commute to be WB reserve than narrow body, so I forecast those 40, or whatever it ends up being, slots in PHL filled by people who were previously based and live in other places, ie: BOS, LGA, DCA, and CLT. Long-call WB FO as a commuter is not as rough as long-call NB. We're talking 1-2 trips per month. So, my prediction is that WB FO is still going to be very senior. It's yesterday's CA pay to go sleep in a bunk for a third of the trip.

I'm staying where I am for a while (almost 6-yr NB FO). I'm not senior enough to get anywhere near the schedule I can hold right now if I go to the left seat and long-haul/FB/sleep in the bunk/big swings of time-zone kind of flying is not for me. I did some of that in the military. I didn't enjoy doing it 2-3 times a year, never-mind 2-3 times a month. If I do get the occasional itch for some Guinness, maybe I'll get a piece of the XLR. I'm sure we're going to see 6-7 year NB FO's making $300,000+ here soon.

PatrickAA

I wonder how junior PHL 787 will actually go, even with the 40 posted spots. I am just below 10,000 seniority and not that confident I could even hold it. With the large pay jump, many sub-10,000# people may bid it for QOL over CA. Who knows? It's currently sitting at #9800ish.

I don't think it will go anywhere near the 11,500-12,000 range like I've seen people people hoping. Hope I am wrong, though.

GatorHog

What does the LC to SC conversion look like for WB FO? Can still be up to 5x a month? But maybe just rarely happens on WB compared to NB?

ACEssXfer

Could maybe say the same in the opposite direction: Senior pilots who have been QoL focused can no longer ignore how much money you make as a NB CA. I think it'll be a wash.

hercretired

as you know...the difference between a coke addict and an AA Widebody FO ?

you can get the coke addict off coke

CRJJ

Is it really that good!? The WB, not the coke