CRJdriver2017

Praying this is true.

AAL24

Yeah the west coast WB flying is almost dead at AA. If that’s your goal then I would strongly recommend UAL or DAL over AA. No matter how many retirements you read about. If you want to hold a line really fast as a 320 FO in PHL or upgrade quickly in CLT then AA is the place.

There are only 34 787 CAs in LAX and 41 777 CAs.

AboveAndBeyond

This isn't too far off.

We really don't have 15,300 pilots as many took early retirements during COVID and are still on the list, and a couple hundred that aren't active. That 15,300 number also includes all that have left AA in the last 7 months since the list was officially released in July. Active pilots, we are at about 13,200.

There are less than 6000 Captains at AA. Figuring that 25-30% are reserves at any given point, that would mean that there are about 4500 line holding captains on property. Figure in a little growth with the new Neo's and Max's coming in, and a few more 787s. So about 5000 line holding captains at the airline total, and maybe 7000 total captains.

Right now, there are over 4500 pilots on the seniority list that are 45 or younger and if the current hiring trend (new hire age) continues, we should hit 7000 pilots at AA that are 45 or younger in less than 24 months. That would mean that within the next year (plus or minus a few months), the chances of a new hire pilot upgrading in the next 15 years at AA will start to decline and the upgrade time will start to climb. If you are hired at the end of 2024, your projected upgrade time will be 15 to 20 years. We will be in a similar situation that Southwest is in now. And even if you are able to upgrade in 10 years, you will likely sit reserve for another 10 years as a captain because of the lack of retirements once this big wave has passed.

It is great that we have so many retirements, but it is also wise to look at how many pilots have been hired in the last 5 years and how old they are. The average age in new hire classes at AA right now is about 35 and of the 250 hired so far in 2023, over 200 of them will have 20+ year careers at AA.

This is not unique to AA, though. It is happening everywhere. It is a little worse at AA because we have so many retirements hitting so soon, but United and Delta will also have 10-15 year upgrades in the future as well.

The TLR answer is that you should really try to get hired by your "forever" airline in the next year or less. Past that, it might not be as great as the outlook is right now.

El Peso

I don’t know what the future of our LAX flying is, but wasn’t this asked and answered before? Aren’t we currently down several gates at LAX due to a $1.6B terminal construction project? And that our current schedule there reflects this gate constraint?

And I agree about WB in LAX. We can be sure that China won’t be flown from LAX anymore.

AAL24

This is my understanding so take it with a grain of salt. Our reduced domestic capacity out of LAX is a function of gate constraints. The reduced international flying is due to a strategic shift at AA. We can't compete with the multitude of Asian carriers that fly to LAX so we are going to use our gates to operate where we do well, domestic and short haul international. According to mgt our coastal hubs are inferior to UAL and DAL for international flying and our connecting partners overseas are likewise not as good at driving connections.

pitchattitude

AA is going to have a hard time doing that any time soon if their contract continues to lag…

Pilot X

if that was true my seniority number would be -2000 in 15 years based on 9,000 retiring in that timeframe

El Peso

I haven’t heard them say “coastal hubs” but maybe west coast hubs. Let’s just use China and PVG as an example. LAX to PVG is over 600nm longer than SEA-PVG, and in the game of margins who do you think will have the advantage on that route, us or Delta? That’s not even accounting for the fact that LAX to China is over saturated with Chinese and US carriers. So yes, I can see how us driving connections to China through LAX is not competitive. So I don’t expect China service in our LAX network to return.

With that said, Japan is a different story. The economics make sense there it appears. Probably because of the ability to generate connections on JAL on the other side, so you’re seeing twice daily to HND. SYD is holding strong even though AKL moved to DFW, and we’re adding a third daily to LHR. So there’s WB opportunity out there for LAX, but it won’t be to China. This is my opinion.

AAL24

Yeah I don't think China will come back to LAX for AA. I think the plan was to move that PVG slot up to SEA and use Alaska Airlines as feed. I agree regarding Japan. There are a lot more connections onwards from Japan using our JAL partnership. After our big investment in China Southern Airlines it would seem like there would be an opportunity to fly to Guangzhou and connect passengers onwards through CSA. But for whatever reason (maybe Covid) we aren't operating that route.

Our head of Network Planning, Brian Znotins, recently said "Delta and United have stronger coastal hubs and gateways and also have more extensive connecting hubs in Europe. We're much stronger in Heathrow by comparison but Heathrow doesn't lend itself well to connecting markets in continental Europe, Asia, and Africa. But make no mistake we are competing and will continue to do so. We are adding more seats to our WB fleets and have a number of aircraft on order that will grow our long haul options. Everyone is excited about the 50 321XLRs but we're also getting another 787-9s, so while Delta and United may be grabbing the headlines today I think it will be a different story in years to come." (PTT episode #140)

OpieTaylor

I doubt all retirements will be senior to you.