Floobs

Pdt is notorious for that.

Al Czervik

Fly the 321. You’ll live at 28,0.

Dolphinflyer

I think they upgraded the packs somehow. First AA F100's were hot boxes above 50F OAT on ground. Later deliveries and retrofits seemed much better. (my memory is hazy though)

I don't remember it climbing well or fast, but I thought it handled well, like a mid-sized bizjet.

FLPS30GRDWN

I’m thinking to 777X will be a slow selling airplane. I personally don’t believe we’ll ever see it. The economics of it would have to be extremely good for us to make a purchase on that. It seems as though the 787 is more likely the path. Especially the -9 and possibly the -10 for a large capacity cabin. Go check out the numbers on Boeing.com and compare the 777-300 and 777x with the 787-9 and -10 you’ll see what I’m talking about.

This management group has stated repeatedly without fail that less types = more profits (I agree and am glad for the approach)

Ultimately I think they will use the 787 fleet similar to how they are using the A320 fleets now. Gives the airline a ton of flex with lowered expenses.

$.02

Cheddar

Nailed it brother.


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Milksheikh

Believe psa is in a similar spot. I heard they will be sending guys late this year or early next year hired in 2014. I believe envoy is currently sending 2011 hires but their flow rate is going to decrease as time goes on.

Subpilot

2006 hires. Just got into 2007.

TransWorld

Talked with an Envoy CA end of 2017. He was a 2006 hire and was scheduled to flow 1/2018. Very few each year for the next several, so will go through quickly. The last of the Protected Pilots group, hire 10/11/2011 is estimated to flow late 2019 or early 2020.

Assume things don’t change, all the Protected Pilots are flowing at 25 per month. Then, the next group is 15 per month, followed by after DOS (12/23/2014) of 25 per month. These numbers are straight off the APC Envoy Page.

Again, this could change. My personal opinion 25 per month, then 15 per month, followed by 25 per month kind of sticks out. I would not be at all surprised if it gets changed to 25 per month all the way across the board.

Milksheikh

Roger that thanks for the correction. I just know that as each group passes, the flow for envoy gets continually worse. I hope you are right and it they just make it 25/month. I know psa is trying to up their rate to at least 10/month.

I remember reading this thread about the "20 year flow" and thinking I'll never go to PSA: PSA 20 year flow to AA(or more). Turns out they soon may have the most recent hires getting classes at american.

Funny how it flip flopped and now psa/piedmont have much quicker flows than envoy. I think the main factor is the outside attrition ratio at psa and piedmont is much higher than at envoy. People just seem to be more inclined to stick around for the flow there. Also a factor is that envoys group is much larger than psa or piedmonts too.

TransWorld

It wasn’t but a few years ago the Envoy Pilots that flowed were 25 year veterans of Envoy. They were stuck through the years of furloughs and retirement from 60 to 65.

Now at 11 years, and dropping. In a couple of years, the end of the Protected Pilots will be 9 years.

If they adjust, keeping the flow at 25, rather than drop to 15, flow would maintain at 9 years if:

- No attrition (would decrease the years)*
- No bobbles in AA hiring
- No change in overall pilot headcount.
- Etc. Etc.

*In 4-6 years, as AA and the other majors enter into the sustained retirement peak, my crystal ball says hiring by all the majors at all the regionals will be about 1/5th the regionals’ total headcount each year, sustained. (This considers the MIL and other sources.) This will cause major changes, and shrinkage of the regionals, in my estimation. At that point a flow may not be a drawing card any more. Heck, it may even get to the point like it was decades ago; hiring CFI directly into the majors.