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Old 01-14-2018, 07:17 PM
  #451  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
Mandatory retirements for 2017 at one point was 409. Company said they were planning on 465.

So roughly a net gain of 180 (1.3%).

‘Crew age by fleet’ shows 492.
20 yr retirement list shows 527.

A net gain in 2018 of perhaps 130-180? 1-1.3%?
Increased training bubble?
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Old 01-14-2018, 08:07 PM
  #452  
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Originally Posted by Name User
So I wouldn't be surprised to see high hiring for Jan-May and then pull back to a lower number,
Wouldn’t the later part of the Jan-May time frame of new hires be too late in finishing training to help for the summer season? (I state the rather obvious.)

I realize some retirements occur over the summer, but if you are thinking the intent would be to front end load the hiring for summer, wouldn’t you have to cram those hires into the very first part of the year?

The first class of 39 is not a big enough size to do that. (Unless you are thinking the 2018 total hires will be less than the mandatory retirements.) They will have to be much bigger than that to achieve the objective you suggest.
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Old 01-14-2018, 08:52 PM
  #453  
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How senior/junior is LAX 320 FO.

Anyone get that right out of class?
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:24 PM
  #454  
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Originally Posted by BusCapt
How senior/junior is LAX 320 FO.

Anyone get that right out of class?
It’s pretty jr. Not LGA or PHL jr though. New hires have gotten it in the past. The data is in this thread or the other hiring thread on here.

Looks like a Nov 2017 hire is the bottom guy.
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Old 01-15-2018, 03:15 AM
  #455  
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik
AIP is approved and we’ll need a less reserves.
They said that about PBS. PBS has been here almost 2 years and we haven't seen a decrease in reserve staffing. Planning can't get it through their heads that anything less than 30% reserves is NOT an emergency.
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Old 01-15-2018, 03:57 AM
  #456  
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Originally Posted by EMBFlyer
They said that about PBS. PBS has been here almost 2 years and we haven't seen a decrease in reserve staffing. Planning can't get it through their heads that anything less than 30% reserves is NOT an emergency.
I think you may be confusing incompetence with utilization. This company is great at high utilization. If current scheduling practices are allowed high pilot utilization will continue.
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Old 01-15-2018, 08:16 AM
  #457  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
Wouldn’t the later part of the Jan-May time frame of new hires be too late in finishing training to help for the summer season? (I state the rather obvious.)

I realize some retirements occur over the summer, but if you are thinking the intent would be to front end load the hiring for summer, wouldn’t you have to cram those hires into the very first part of the year?

The first class of 39 is not a big enough size to do that. (Unless you are thinking the 2018 total hires will be less than the mandatory retirements.) They will have to be much bigger than that to achieve the objective you suggest.
Well that is what I said. They'll front load the hiring in the beginning of the year.

Don't they normally run two classes a month?
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Old 01-15-2018, 08:58 AM
  #458  
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Seniority list has the number of guys hired per month. Looks like May and June are low months. Didn't know that.
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Old 01-15-2018, 09:48 AM
  #459  
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Originally Posted by Name User
Well that is what I said. They'll front load the hiring in the beginning of the year.

Don't they normally run two classes a month?
No, I indicated the latter part of Jan-May hire dates is too late to get on line for the bulk of the summer flying.

Yes, they run 2 classes a month. From a practical standpoint, hire dates after March are too late to be able to help in the summer ramp up.

Say the 39 was intended to be 40. At 2 classes per month and 3 months: 40 x 2 x 3 = 240 hired Jan - Mar.

As you said all retirements are about 600. So 240 hired / 600 to retire for the year = 40% of the year’s backfill for retirement. If retirements are about the same every month, Jan-May would have 250 retirements, or 42%. That is not a front end load help for summer flying.

Further, if the plan is to hire 730, at the rate of 40 per class and a class every 2 weeks (and no hiccups in the system), they would be finished by Sept. If the plan is to hire 925, they would need to run classes through the end of Nov.

Last edited by TransWorld; 01-15-2018 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 01-15-2018, 11:44 AM
  #460  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
No, I indicated the latter part of Jan-May hire dates is too late to get on line for the bulk of the summer flying.

Yes, they run 2 classes a month. From a practical standpoint, hire dates after March are too late to be able to help in the summer ramp up.

Say the 39 was intended to be 40. At 2 classes per month and 3 months: 40 x 2 x 3 = 240 hired Jan - Mar.

As you said all retirements are about 600. So 240 hired / 600 to retire for the year = 40% of the year’s backfill for retirement. If retirements are about the same every month, Jan-May would have 250 retirements, or 42%. That is not a front end load help for summer flying.

Further, if the plan is to hire 730, at the rate of 40 per class and a class every 2 weeks (and no hiccups in the system), they would be finished by Sept. If the plan is to hire 925, they would need to run classes through the end of Nov.
Just like years past they will hire a lot in winter/spring and take a break then hire a lot at the end of the year. That would be my guess, but I'm just looking at past practice. You can do all the math you want.
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