Bitcoin

I agree with you at the current pace but once 2 new jets per month start showing up it's going to get expense to borrow without an agreement. Only the first 4 have been financed to buy a little time, after that I think you will see some motivation.

tom11011

You are the second person I have heard mention this 2 per month, but where are you seeing this? They are telling shareholders 10% growth which equates to 13 airframes this year. Unless 1/2 are to retire out existing airframes, but still where is this being seen at?

Bitcoin

From the last earnings call transcript in November. "For 2024, we are currently contracted to take delivery of two airplanes per month throughout 2024." If you click the link it's the last question on the call from Savi.

tom11011

Thanks for the link.

tailendcharlie

Is the will of the pilot group still supporting a complete re-write of the CBA including scheduling, reserve, & hours of service? Then plan on a long road ahead & running out the clock to get released & strike. OTOH if a reading of the current environment supports achieving a smaller number of big ticket items only - pay retirement vacation etc - then yes I can see a T/A this year.

captnate702

running out the clock to get released is where our leverage lies today because we could not capitalize on the greatest negotiating leverage in a generation. Our new hire classes our completely full - in the sense our training dept cannot handle more new hires. Classes or 30-35 new pilots, every three weeks for the past two months and planned for the next three months. What does that mean? It means management gets nothing with a new contract. For those saying we need a new contract to hire and retain pilots, what rock have you been hiding under? Attrition is 3 pilots per month. New hire class are full.

so where does that leave negotiations? It leaves us with Andrew trying to navigate the NMB and appease the NMB enough to get the threat of self help. We don’t need to get released, just a realistic threat. Unfortunately, we just wasted a year of mediation with nothing to show for it because Andrew had no clue what he was doing. He got one meaningless TA in a year. Mind you, the NMB certainly know that Local 2118 does not have their house in order so that just delays the threat of being released even longer.

5 out of the 7 people who were on the Negotiating Committee are gone (Hegland, Valenzuela, JK, JA, RJ have all resigned or been removed by Andrew). You think that shows the NMB that the Union should be released? We’ve had so much inconsistency and drama within the NC that we are further away from release today than we were when the process started - that is what we get for sending amateurs to NMB negotiations.

I don’t know what the answer is. I don’t want to just settle for the big ticket items (LTD, Retirement, wages, vacation, etc) but if it means getting those items by the end of summer vs waiting til 2027-2028 for a complete re-write of the contract, then maybe that is the wise move? I honestly don’t know.

I just wish we had real leaders guiding us instead of Andrew and his lackeys.

tailendcharlie

100% - you just said it better than I could.

captnate702

I do think bitcoin is right if the objective is just big ticket items: LTD, retirement, wages and vacation/sick then we could have deal relatively soon.

if the objective is a re-write of the entire thing then there is no way we could get a deal done this year imo. A complete rewrite would a minimum of 1.5-2 years and that’s with reasonable and motivated negotiators on both sides - not sure the union or management are reasonable and motivated right now.

id be super curious to know what the pilot group wants now. I know what the polling was two years ago, but with all the drama and lying from Andrew I think new polling about what the pilot group wants would be very different from even a year ago.

a year ago attrition was through the roof. Andrew had the backing of the pilot group (with exception of me, Margi and or two others). Pilot shortage and hiring environment from the big four was gang busters. Demand for travel and revenue was sky high.

none of those four elements exist today. In fact the exact opposite is true of each of those four elements (no attrition, Andrew has lost all trust, big four have slowed way down on their hiring, ULCCs are barely solvent and demand dropped).

I think those four elements changing so quickly would dramatically change the goals and objectives our pilot group has for this contract. Again just my two cents. I seriously don’t know what the right answer/strategy should be.

G4er

The new negotiator has said he believes the current contract has good language just the company isn’t complying with the contract. Hopefully he has learned that you need to include examples etc. Time will tell.

tom11011

Yes I believe so. The union took a survey of the pilot group end of November. Latest communications from the Union still reference Industry Standard Contract. When negotiations started way back when, we were told to expect 3 years. I believe that is accurate, my guess would be 2025 unless something changes with the company where they need to get this done sooner. But I fully expect the scheduling and reserve sections of the contract to be the most painful, time consuming and possibly the catalyst for an impass.