Be Realistic

I had to look that word up. In no meaning of the word does it describe Margaritaville's posts in my opinion.

The only way you are in your bed every night eating your own food is that you have had the good fortune to have joint this mess at a better time. Anyone coming here in the last 2 years or less has and will continue to have a less than pleasant experience and be paid 1/2 the amount for it. They also do not have the luxury of being home every night if they are on reserve or bottom of the list. And forget Captain upgrades in any base within 10 years except the middle of nowhere, which coincidently is also a base they will likely close at some point when they cant hire pilots or FA's to work there.

This company thinks I exist to meet their needs. Even a line holder is forced to work 85-95 hrs per month getting at best min days off plus 2 extra. Why should we leave to go to Delta ETC and start all over. Why not stay here, tell inbounds how it really is, and let the company reap what they sow? Seems a reasonable practice to me.

Margaritaville

"Nihilists! F#$% me. I mean, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos."

I seriously doubt the legacy airlines will furlough in the upcoming recession baring some major event like global war. The retirement numbers are too high and the soft layoffs plus stop in hiring during covid put them way below green dot on staffing. None of that will get Maury to give us a good deal though. Allegiant is a bubble in the industry. The only thing that will get the allegiant pilots a good contract is standing up and demanding it coupled with the inability to staff.

V2cut

The chances of the legacies furloughing in the next decade are very low. The retirements ahead are unreal. Combing all three legacy retirements would = 100% plus of one of the three airlines completely retiring in the next 10 years! Worst case scenario for the legacies is they will SLOW down hiring in the near future.

Margaritaville

Most comparisons leave allegiant out is because it's so small compared to the others and the unique business model makes it an outlier.

When comparing contracts you can't just look at pay rates. They only tell a small part of the story. Sun country is a perfect example. They got a decent rate in their new contract but it's still industry lagging in a lot of areas. Allegiant on the other hand has a 5.5 year old contract that was also was the first union contract for the group. We have been debating the merits of what was compromised and what shouldn't have been ever since, but 1st contracts are always a compromise since there's no baseline. When it was signed the pay rates were okay but were leapfrogged by everyone. Allegiant pilots are currently the lowest paid A320 pilots in the US. Not only that there's basically no limits on reserve. Extremely weak language on bidding schedules, rescheduling, and filling of vacancies. Because the company and union ignored several negotiating deadlines we are stuck with a joke of an in-house "PBS" bidding system that is nothing but an excel spreadsheet generator. Because the company sued an arbitrator when they lost a case the company controls it by assigning must work days which are illegal in our contract but they don't care. The union seems to have allowed them to roll this entire issue back into negotiations so they can buy back something we already own.

With the weak work rules and a management who blatantly ignores the contract and throws it in our faces this place is a pyramid scheme. The more senior your are, the better your schedules are and the less exposure you have to managements shenanigans. However these senior people are young and aren't retiring any time soon. Very few people leave this company once they get senior enough to hold a good schedule in their desired base. So there's very little movement once you pass about 50% in the company. They sell the ability to hold great schedules and live where you want and be home every night but due to the nature of the pyramid few people hired in the last 6+ years will ever see that. All the churn is the bottom couple rungs of the pyramid. Therefore the senior 30% or so don't care. They got theirs. The next 30% still think they will get there in just a few years and live the high life. The bottom 30% have their apps out and don't care. This is probably the biggest impediment to getting a contract. The group is too fractured and the union is a dog with no teeth. Allegiant will continue to lag the industry unless something changes. The next contract will be another compromise and excuses/apathy will continue to flow.

The best thing allegiant pilots can probably do is just accept that this disreputable company will never honor language anyhow and just sell out for a boatload of money to make up for it. But that opinion is pretty controversial.

tailendcharlie

Probably be an impasse declared this year, federal mediation, we’re looking at 3-4 more years. Take a good luck around & remember this as the high-water mark for Allegiant it’s soon to get nasty & ugly.

9easy

3 years from now with no contract, there'll be -500 pilots, no 737's, and the stock price will plummet. The company will become irrelevant.

To an extent I think mgmt knows this, but they are still trying to figure out what they want to do about it.

KC135

Sadly I've heard the exact same from a pretty reliable source. As a couple others have already stated above, their plan seems unlikely to happen and more likely to backfire. The next earnings call will be interesting, hopefully the hedge fund managers will pin them to some tough questions.

FreshWater

Hoping and praying for the apocalypse is the only thing that’s going to bail out management. Unfortunately for management Putin hasn’t released his tactical nukes. The only thing that can slow attrition is all of Europe under a nuclear cloud. Now that would be unprecedented. Allegiant is praying for the good ol’ days of ubiquitous labor to treat like crap.

Oh, how will we fill 100+ two-plane mid-continent bases on min guarantee?

KC135

That sounds more likely than not, other than the 737 part. They have mentioned a few times that they "remain flexible" by being able to retire the 35 319's early. Essentially they could keep the fleet plan close to the same or shrink while still taking on the planned 737's until as late as spring 2025. After that some of the older 320's could be retired. Also the no new bases announcement for 2023 confirms they don't plan on plugging attrition with a new TA. I'll honestly be shocked if we see one in less than 3 years, 5-8 is more realistic IMO.

tom11011

They can do whatever they want, changes nothing. I simply want what the others have. We will either get that and prosper or we won’t and shrink. I can go either way.