Contract negotiations
04-14-2022, 09:59 AM
#161
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 713
I agree that "Plan B" will happen this time because the company has no choice due to attrition. They plan to downsize but what a great opportunity to blame the pilots. Look for growth again late next year at the height of the recession as G4 takes turf from other airlines that are retreating. Recession will also slow legacy hiring maybe just enough for G4 to catch up.
Since global thermonuclear war keeps getting brought in, the problem with the union is they are locked in a cold war with the company. It's no longer about "the contract". It's about mutual hatred of the other side and kicking their ass in each small proxy battle. It's about I'd rather die than agree with you so let's go all in for Mutually Assured Destruction. Contract negotiations are SALT talks. The G4 pilots are caught in the middle like average Americans doing duck and cover drills and stocking up on iodine pills. The only thing that really stopped the 50 year long Cold War was the Soviet Union running out of money and collapsing before the US debt caught up with us. That's the kind of standoff 2118 and G4 are having right now. First one to run out of money loses. The madness won't stop until then.
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
Since global thermonuclear war keeps getting brought in, the problem with the union is they are locked in a cold war with the company. It's no longer about "the contract". It's about mutual hatred of the other side and kicking their ass in each small proxy battle. It's about I'd rather die than agree with you so let's go all in for Mutually Assured Destruction. Contract negotiations are SALT talks. The G4 pilots are caught in the middle like average Americans doing duck and cover drills and stocking up on iodine pills. The only thing that really stopped the 50 year long Cold War was the Soviet Union running out of money and collapsing before the US debt caught up with us. That's the kind of standoff 2118 and G4 are having right now. First one to run out of money loses. The madness won't stop until then.
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
Our EXCO has a lot of strengths but if there is one weakness it is their inexperience - do they know how to navigate the RLA and get a deal done? It is still way way way way too early to make any judgments on this but it is what i will be watching. Pilots getting stuck in the middle of a pi$$ing match is not good, only negative outcomes in that scenario.
I don't think that is the case right now and i hope it never gets to that point because again, that would not be good for us pilots.
04-14-2022, 10:19 AM
#162
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 713
All I see are upsides. The company needs a contract and it will happen. Could be a few months or it could be a couple years. How that translates into some sort of scorched earth is beyond me. Not everything is worthy of such dramatics.
As a company we can only burn so many thousands on each new hire that quits before it makes sense to give that to a contract. That will happen eventually.
As a company we can only burn so many thousands on each new hire that quits before it makes sense to give that to a contract. That will happen eventually.
Rumors are that we have better than suncountry rates on the table and 15% DC retirement right now (plus the fact that we will never be worse than second in rates amongst ULCCs); from the rumors those are the three big money drivers of what management has given the union. If this takes 3-5 more years, then losing out on the suncountry rates and retirement you are looking at $75-$120k loss of total compensation.
Another risk is the airline shrinks and we stop buying used 320s and accelerate some retirements. Fewer planes has never been good for a pilot group. other risk that is difficult to quantify would be opportunity cost in losing out on growth opportunities. because opportunity risk is so abstract and difficult to quantify I don’t put a lot of stock in this (I’m sure there are smarter ppl out there who could).
IMO the downside is going 3-5 years without a raise and no 15% DC to my retirement account. I AM NOT SAYING THAT THE UNION SHOULD DRINK MANAGEMENT’S KOOL AID ON THESE RATES AND RETIRMENET. BUT WE SHOULDN’T PRETEND THAT THERE IS NO RISK/DOWNSIDE TO DRAGGING THIS OUT 3-5 YEARS LIKE EXCO SAYS IT WILL TAKE.
04-14-2022, 11:38 AM
#163
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 3,013
I DON’T DISAGREE WITH YOU…BUT let’s not pretend that there are zero downsides. There are certainly some downsides.
Rumors are that we have better than suncountry rates on the table and 15% DC retirement right now (plus the fact that we will never be worse than second in rates amongst ULCCs); from the rumors those are the three big money drivers of what management has given the union. If this takes 3-5 more years, then losing out on the suncountry rates and retirement you are looking at $75-$120k loss of total compensation.
Another risk is the airline shrinks and we stop buying used 320s and accelerate some retirements. Fewer planes has never been good for a pilot group. other risk that is difficult to quantify would be opportunity cost in losing out on growth opportunities. because opportunity risk is so abstract and difficult to quantify I don’t put a lot of stock in this (I’m sure there are smarter ppl out there who could).
IMO the downside is going 3-5 years without a raise and no 15% DC to my retirement account. I AM NOT SAYING THAT THE UNION SHOULD DRINK MANAGEMENT’S KOOL AID ON THESE RATES AND RETIRMENET. BUT WE SHOULDN’T PRETEND THAT THERE IS NO RISK/DOWNSIDE TO DRAGGING THIS OUT 3-5 YEARS LIKE EXCO SAYS IT WILL TAKE.
Rumors are that we have better than suncountry rates on the table and 15% DC retirement right now (plus the fact that we will never be worse than second in rates amongst ULCCs); from the rumors those are the three big money drivers of what management has given the union. If this takes 3-5 more years, then losing out on the suncountry rates and retirement you are looking at $75-$120k loss of total compensation.
Another risk is the airline shrinks and we stop buying used 320s and accelerate some retirements. Fewer planes has never been good for a pilot group. other risk that is difficult to quantify would be opportunity cost in losing out on growth opportunities. because opportunity risk is so abstract and difficult to quantify I don’t put a lot of stock in this (I’m sure there are smarter ppl out there who could).
IMO the downside is going 3-5 years without a raise and no 15% DC to my retirement account. I AM NOT SAYING THAT THE UNION SHOULD DRINK MANAGEMENT’S KOOL AID ON THESE RATES AND RETIRMENET. BUT WE SHOULDN’T PRETEND THAT THERE IS NO RISK/DOWNSIDE TO DRAGGING THIS OUT 3-5 YEARS LIKE EXCO SAYS IT WILL TAKE.
04-14-2022, 12:03 PM
#164
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Position: A-320
Posts: 680
All I see are upsides. The company needs a contract and it will happen. Could be a few months or it could be a couple years. How that translates into some sort of scorched earth is beyond me. Not everything is worthy of such dramatics.
As a company we can only burn so many thousands on each new hire that quits before it makes sense to give that to a contract. That will happen eventually.
As a company we can only burn so many thousands on each new hire that quits before it makes sense to give that to a contract. That will happen eventually.
captnate- You're leaving out the most important downside risk to accepting a contract like that. Once the big paycheck honeymoon phase wears off, the junior side of both seats will put their apps out again, especially the new hires only home a few days a month, while waiting years for their stagnant base award only to be TDY'd out later. I don't think most realize that a contract like that will only stop a small portion of attrition, the company's long term success and growth is dependent on having some decent work rules in addition to the $.
04-14-2022, 12:58 PM
#166
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Position: A-320
Posts: 680
04-14-2022, 02:48 PM
#167
Kabuki Kool
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Position: fu3king.airline@Furlough. DNA
Posts: 447
Bottom line, the union isn’t signing another anemic worthless piece of paper. Next contract, north of two years, easy. And we will shrink because of it. MG doesn’t care. Plan accordingly. Management is praying for a recession to slow down the Legacy’s, is not going to happen.
This recession won’t slow down their hiring to any significant amount. Neo socialism will keep them and most of the country that matters afloat. This will kill small base strategy. Thank goodness, it was a stupid idea to begin with. How are they going to get a ramper in mid America to take a drug test for nine bucks an hour, working our weird pre-dawn morning; then go home, come back late afternoon Fridays and Sundays? When they can make twice that and get high working at McDonalds with better hours. Or, make more on unemployment and still get high. Then the F/As out there, fuhgeddaboudit.
If allegiant survives the great resignation, we will be a smaller, high profit margin, boutique side show of the industry. We’ve already missed taking advantage of gaining market share. The only way this is different is with MG gone.
Imo.
This recession won’t slow down their hiring to any significant amount. Neo socialism will keep them and most of the country that matters afloat. This will kill small base strategy. Thank goodness, it was a stupid idea to begin with. How are they going to get a ramper in mid America to take a drug test for nine bucks an hour, working our weird pre-dawn morning; then go home, come back late afternoon Fridays and Sundays? When they can make twice that and get high working at McDonalds with better hours. Or, make more on unemployment and still get high. Then the F/As out there, fuhgeddaboudit.
If allegiant survives the great resignation, we will be a smaller, high profit margin, boutique side show of the industry. We’ve already missed taking advantage of gaining market share. The only way this is different is with MG gone.
Imo.
04-14-2022, 04:28 PM
#168
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: Airbus CA
Posts: 948
Good assessment…..plan on overnights, plan on moving/commuting, ultimately be thinking of the likely endgame & build your financial reserves. With so many things in flux be very leery of coming here based on promises of home-every-night life in one of the small bases.
04-14-2022, 05:01 PM
#169
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 713
Unfortunately, MNGT knows about the high probability of a recession in a year from now and they feel that will solve the attrition problem at least in the short term.
captnate- You're leaving out the most important downside risk to accepting a contract like that. Once the big paycheck honeymoon phase wears off, the junior side of both seats will put their apps out again, especially the new hires only home a few days a month, while waiting years for their stagnant base award only to be TDY'd out later. I don't think most realize that a contract like that will only stop a small portion of attrition, the company's long term success and growth is dependent on having some decent work rules in addition to the $.
captnate- You're leaving out the most important downside risk to accepting a contract like that. Once the big paycheck honeymoon phase wears off, the junior side of both seats will put their apps out again, especially the new hires only home a few days a month, while waiting years for their stagnant base award only to be TDY'd out later. I don't think most realize that a contract like that will only stop a small portion of attrition, the company's long term success and growth is dependent on having some decent work rules in addition to the $.
Let's assume we accept the offer and get new rates and then start negotiating again in 2024 or 2025 but in the meantime the attrition doesn't stop, how is that worse than having current rates until 2025 or 2026? I don't see how that would be worse than getting no contract at all and still having major attrition? Maybe i'm just not reading the tea leaves...
IMO the risk of accepting a contract now is that we lose the leverage of attrition. If attrition will continue even with new rates, then why would we not take the pay raise and keep the leverage? I don't see it that way, the new rates would absolutely slow a lot of the attrition and i bet the EXCO thinks the same way which is why they are not giving this standing offer any consideration.
Again, this is just based off the rumors i'm hearing and my reading of the tea leaves...
04-14-2022, 07:14 PM
#170
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Posts: 36
KC135 - even if we assume that we accept the standing the offer and the contract fails to stop attrition like management thinks that it will; then that is a downside risk for management not for me. That is there problem. That would be the BEST case scenario for us as a pilot group. If the EXCO thinks that even with new rates and retirement the attrition will continue, then they should accept the offer with a shorter duration so we can all get pay raises while never stopping the attrition. the Company would be begging to open up negotiations again in two years but this time they would be forced to actually take the work rules seriously for once. I think this is pie in the sky stuff because i do think new rates would go a long way to stop the attrition but that is just my opinion (example: suncountry).
Let's assume we accept the offer and get new rates and then start negotiating again in 2024 or 2025 but in the meantime the attrition doesn't stop, how is that worse than having current rates until 2025 or 2026? I don't see how that would be worse than getting no contract at all and still having major attrition? Maybe i'm just not reading the tea leaves...
IMO the risk of accepting a contract now is that we lose the leverage of attrition. If attrition will continue even with new rates, then why would we not take the pay raise and keep the leverage? I don't see it that way, the new rates would absolutely slow a lot of the attrition and i bet the EXCO thinks the same way which is why they are not giving this standing offer any consideration.
Again, this is just based off the rumors i'm hearing and my reading of the tea leaves...
Let's assume we accept the offer and get new rates and then start negotiating again in 2024 or 2025 but in the meantime the attrition doesn't stop, how is that worse than having current rates until 2025 or 2026? I don't see how that would be worse than getting no contract at all and still having major attrition? Maybe i'm just not reading the tea leaves...
IMO the risk of accepting a contract now is that we lose the leverage of attrition. If attrition will continue even with new rates, then why would we not take the pay raise and keep the leverage? I don't see it that way, the new rates would absolutely slow a lot of the attrition and i bet the EXCO thinks the same way which is why they are not giving this standing offer any consideration.
Again, this is just based off the rumors i'm hearing and my reading of the tea leaves...
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