Arctichicken

Mathematically speaking, you are exactly correct. Alaska has less slots to fill than the big boys. It's simple statistics...."odds", for all you gamblers.
As for cancellations.....lack of crews? Just my guess.

Chris Knight

Plenty have their apps out. What makes you think they aren't trying?

Mea25000

I hate how people try to push junior fo's out of AS.. It's selfish and misdirected. I think there is a minority of bitter pilots over here, that thinks if enough fo's leave their pay and job will suddenly become industry leading. AS in my opinion is a great career. I am glad I never listened to those few. Our pay will improve shortly. I don't like this merger but in the end I bet it will be fine.

OCCP

Unless there is a significant amount of growth post merger with mainline airplanes and mainline pilots flying those, this won't be a career airline.

CassinAK

It's our responsibility as Alaska pilots to demand the scope that will ensure it is our pilots flying the planes going forward. It's really up to us if we want to make Alaska Great Again.

full of luv

That's the beauty of our system. Each pilot gets a career to make their own decisions. Your bet is on AS group... someone else may be on SWA/UAL/AAL etc.

Sometimes pilots become very myopic in their job search due to their preconceived ideas about a company and/or base that they want to live.

Up until last year, if you were a junior pilot that wanted to work for a major in SEA/PDX you really only had one option of trying to get on at AS. Now nearly new hires are holding SEA as a base for DL so at least now the wannabe NW pilots have an option.
That's good from a pilot perspective, as AS mgmt sees that their are other options for new hires and they may not always have the luxury of pilots swarming for an interview if they make the AS air group seem like something other than a career airline.

Lastly, at least on this board, I don't think anyone's pushing, but there is a very finite period in your career where, if you have the option, it makes sense to switch to a career company from the one your at. Once you've got a few years LOS in at a major, it has historically rarely made sense to restart at the bottom of another SLI.

Pedantillious

While there will always be a some that cycle through; the mechanics of the industry dictate that AS will be the final stop for most who get hired there.

Very few pilots on year 5 pay are very likely to want to hit the reset button. Especially if the JNC achieves anything remotely close to the what could be achieved.

OCCP

I know what you mean. I'm on 4th year pay at vx and don't really want to start over again but I would for the big 3. I'm also in my mid 30s so I have only a few years before I'm too old to restart. I was talking to a very junior fo last week (like somewhere in the bottom 5) who had a job offer at a legacy and was unsure what to do. I just don't think this place has anything to offer a new hire.

ShyGuy

I'm 32 on 5th year pay, starting 6th year in a couple months and I think I would leave for DL/UA/AA. On the other hand no matter how good the movement looks at the top 3, we'd be furlough fodder there. The good thing about being a senior FO here is at least there is some cushion in case things start to tank.

It's a tougher call once you hit half way up+ the pay band (6th year or higher). But if you're a first year guy at VX (unless you're from the PNW) it makes sense to bail to the 3 legacies. Your seniority/longevity here isn't worth anything to deem staying.

Arctichicken

I think the best way to approach one's career is to be as objective as possible and leave all emotions aside. No one can predict his/her airline career and you'll only know that you have made the right/wrong choice when you retire.
Having said this, I would not recommend Alaska Airlines in the current market to my friends or even my worst enemies. With this micromanaging upper echelon constantly employing their anti-pilot/labor tactics, matched up with a powerless union, this place will wear you down. Think Antichrist.
When I was a brand new hire, I remember flying with a crusty old captain about to retire who advised me to always check my six and never let the guard down. At the time, I thought this old man was senile. No management is perfect but this one is special, kind of like UPS. Spend some time here and you'll know what I'm talking about.