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Old 04-05-2016, 06:16 PM
  #101  
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basic economics besides the fact that no way this makes a good fit
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Old 04-06-2016, 12:23 AM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by svergin
United paid $3B for Continental that had 348 airplanes (all stock transaction)

Delta paid $2.6B for Northwest that had 320 airplanes (all stock transcation)

Alaska pays $4B for Virgin America that owns 6 planes and leases about 60? Plus is has to give up $2.6B of its cash, which neither Delta nor United had to do since they did a stock only purchase.

What am I missing? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just buy planes and grow organically into California? An all Boeing airline buys an all Airbus airline?

This whole thing looks nuts.

I wish you all luck.
You're missing lots of context along with the very basic premise of capitalism.
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Old 04-06-2016, 05:27 AM
  #103  
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gotta like how every pilot becomes a CEO after a merger is announced.
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Old 04-06-2016, 06:27 AM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by gooddeal
You're missing lots of context along with the very basic premise of capitalism.
How to dodge taxes and scam your employees out of decent pay?
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Old 04-06-2016, 06:33 AM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by GangtaMoose
gotta like how every pilot becomes a CEO after a merger is announced.
Lol somebody said that the other day. Did you steal his quote or was that you who said that?
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Old 04-06-2016, 06:33 AM
  #106  
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Originally Posted by svergin
United paid $3B for Continental that had 348 airplanes (all stock transaction)

Delta paid $2.6B for Northwest that had 320 airplanes (all stock transcation)

Alaska pays $4B for Virgin America that owns 6 planes and leases about 60? Plus is has to give up $2.6B of its cash, which neither Delta nor United had to do since they did a stock only purchase.

What am I missing? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just buy planes and grow organically into California? An all Boeing airline buys an all Airbus airline?

This whole thing looks nuts.

I wish you all luck.
I'm not an "instant CEO" but I think this fellow's analysis is pretty spot on, or at the very least touches on the relevant issues. It does appear that Alaska's prime motivation is to achieve rapid growth and a more competitive position, quickly. I don't think it's to "eliminate the competition" since they don't compete on very many routes. The goal is to dominate the West Coast. Growing organically would take too long and involve costly fare wars. The deal is also about shutting out JetBlue. The financial pain now may be a long term strategic win.

ANALYSIS: Alaska Airlines Buys Virgin America

The risk for Alaska is more of the intangible strategic variety. The $2.6 billion price tag is reflective of a lot of things, very few of which have anything to do with the underlying value of Virgin America itself..........

The immediate scale in Los Angeles and San Francisco help turn Alaska into a power in the western United States while further diversifying the network away from the Pacific Northwest. Alaska now has a hub or focus city in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego (you can also throw in Anchorage if you’d like) which is absolutely blanketing the West Coast of the US. In fact no other airline can match the breadth of Alaska’s coverage (Southwest comes closest but is weak in the Pacific Northwest) in the region.
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Old 04-06-2016, 07:37 AM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by GangtaMoose
gotta like how every pilot becomes a CEO after a merger is announced.
So pointing out that Northwest and Continental were purchased for far less than Virgin America, a LCC, is me trying to be a "CEO"? I think its a fairly basic financial comparison. Why wait until now? Only because JB wanted to buy them? Why not buy them last year, or 3 years ago when they would have been cheaper. The upside reasons (growth in west coast) would have still existed, plus VA would have had far less debt back then.

Alaska's market value is $9.9B. That includes Horizon. So they basically are paying over 40% of their existing value to acquire VA? I don't think SFO and LAX "gate space" is worth $4B. Especially when you have to consider that you've just added a different fleet type to your airline. Plus if they decide to scrap the Airbus and buy new Boeing's they have to pay for those as well.

I've always admired Alaska's conservative pro-airline management. My faith in them is starting to crack.
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Old 04-06-2016, 08:20 AM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by svergin
United paid $3B for Continental that had 348 airplanes (all stock transaction)

Delta paid $2.6B for Northwest that had 320 airplanes (all stock transcation)

Alaska pays $4B for Virgin America that owns 6 planes and leases about 60? Plus is has to give up $2.6B of its cash, which neither Delta nor United had to do since they did a stock only purchase.

What am I missing? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just buy planes and grow organically into California? An all Boeing airline buys an all Airbus airline?

This whole thing looks nuts.

I wish you all luck.
You're missing consolidation. Which means less competition. Which means more pricing power. Which means higher ticket prices for all remaining airlines. Which means higher profitability for all remaining airlines.

I'm expecting a few more mergers in the airline industry over the next few years.

As an airline employee, I applaud industry consolidation because higher airline ticket prices means higher pay for those of us who work in the industry. Just like our post-911 pay cuts translated into lower ticket prices for the public. I want to get some of that money back from the public.
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Old 04-06-2016, 08:23 AM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by Riverside
Lol somebody said that the other day. Did you steal his quote or was that you who said that?
He stole the quote. Perhaps the subject matter's too complex for him?
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Old 04-06-2016, 08:25 AM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by svergin
So pointing out that Northwest and Continental were purchased for far less than Virgin America, a LCC, is me trying to be a "CEO"? I think its a fairly basic financial comparison. Why wait until now? Only because JB wanted to buy them? Why not buy them last year, or 3 years ago when they would have been cheaper. The upside reasons (growth in west coast) would have still existed, plus VA would have had far less debt back then.

Alaska's market value is $9.9B. That includes Horizon. So they basically are paying over 40% of their existing value to acquire VA? I don't think SFO and LAX "gate space" is worth $4B. Especially when you have to consider that you've just added a different fleet type to your airline. Plus if they decide to scrap the Airbus and buy new Boeing's they have to pay for those as well.

I've always admired Alaska's conservative pro-airline management. My faith in them is starting to crack.
All valid points and it doesn't take an internet CEO to note that. In my opinion, it's pretty obvious Alaska's purchase of Virgin is to keep yet another competitor (JetBlue) from establishing themselves and infringing on their west coast territory. With Delta putting the full court press on Alaska in Seattle, the last thing they wanted to see is JetBlue setting up shop down south. The price paid for the limited assets that Virgin brings to the table borderline reeks of desperation. We shall see how it pans out.
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