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Old 10-19-2023, 10:56 AM
  #7611  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
Thank you! Another question: I assume AK is pretty committed to SFO as a base? I get that the closure of all Bus bases and the retirement of the entire Bus fleet was a one-time thing that everyone kinda saw coming for quite some time, but it's not often that a major carrier fully retires a fleet type and closes multiple bases. Given AK's apparently more cautious growth pace than other carriers (UA, SWA all have very aggressive plans) — is it safe to say that SFO/737 will likely be a thing at AK for years to come? I realize this is the airline industry and plans can change in a heartbeat, but just curious as to the level of confidence that SFO will remain a growing base (or just a base at all) for the foreseeable future....
I don’t see them closing SFO. Then again I don’t run the airline. Only base we have closed is NYC and that was soon after the merger.

the only constant is change.
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Old 10-19-2023, 11:11 AM
  #7612  
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Do any of you have any insight why Alaska execs were at HAL HQ the past few weeks? Radio silence on our end…
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Old 10-19-2023, 12:02 PM
  #7613  
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Originally Posted by Cholla6918
Do any of you have any insight why Alaska execs were at HAL HQ the past few weeks? Radio silence on our end…
yeah the pilot group was told to expect merger news end of 4th quarter this year, and Hawaiian Airbus retirement end of 3rd Quarter 2024.

Domestic only PAE 787 base by early 2025. OTZ back me up here.
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Old 10-19-2023, 12:33 PM
  #7614  
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Originally Posted by Jet J
yeah the pilot group was told to expect merger news end of 4th quarter this year, and Hawaiian Airbus retirement end of 3rd Quarter 2024.

Domestic only PAE 787 base by early 2025. OTZ back me up here.
At this point literally nothing would surprise me…
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Old 10-19-2023, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Jet J
yeah the pilot group was told to expect merger news end of 4th quarter this year, and Hawaiian Airbus retirement end of 3rd Quarter 2024.

Domestic only PAE 787 base by early 2025. OTZ back me up here.
OTZ is busy converting his bitcoin assets to Hawaiian stock. Easy money. Hawaiian is trading around $5/share. Alaska will buy it for $10.
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Old 10-19-2023, 03:03 PM
  #7616  
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Originally Posted by Jet J
yeah the pilot group was told to expect merger news end of 4th quarter this year, and Hawaiian Airbus retirement end of 3rd Quarter 2024.

Domestic only PAE 787 base by early 2025. OTZ back me up here.

OTZ last year stated that we’d see a merger by NOV. Since November was fast approaching we decided to give OTZ another year and went with NOV 2023.

Last edited by G650guy; 10-19-2023 at 03:05 PM. Reason: Typo
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Old 10-19-2023, 03:38 PM
  #7617  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
Thank you! As I live in SFO, that is quite a significant data point to consider.
That will be the junior base, both seats, for the foreseeable future.

Originally Posted by Turbosina
Question though -- with all the ex-Bus guys transitioning to the 73, might that not change the equation? I imagine a bunch of senior Bus FOs would be upgrading to SFO 737 CA, and thereby pushing the upgrade time up quite a bit. No? Without access to the standing bid list I have no clue, alas...
All of that is accounted for now, PNWflyer's data point is the latest.

There will always be occasional senior FO's upgrading at any airline, but if there was a big surge from the VX side it already happened.

That said, I don't think SWA upgrade is still ten years, I think it's coming down. But ask somebody there.

Also consider retirement pace, as a % of pilot group size. Those numbers are on the APC Airline Profiles. AS/SW are similar in that regard, maybe slightly more at AS.
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Old 10-19-2023, 03:41 PM
  #7618  
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Originally Posted by Jet J
yeah the pilot group was told to expect merger news end of 4th quarter this year, and Hawaiian Airbus retirement end of 3rd Quarter 2024.

Domestic only PAE 787 base by early 2025. OTZ back me up here.

717's (technically Boeings) re-based in SEA for inter-island flying, with ferry tanks for first and last leg.
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Old 10-19-2023, 03:50 PM
  #7619  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
Thank you! Another question: I assume AK is pretty committed to SFO as a base? I get that the closure of all Bus bases and the retirement of the entire Bus fleet was a one-time thing that everyone kinda saw coming for quite some time, but it's not often that a major carrier fully retires a fleet type and closes multiple bases. Given AK's apparently more cautious growth pace than other carriers (UA, SWA all have very aggressive plans) — is it safe to say that SFO/737 will likely be a thing at AK for years to come? I realize this is the airline industry and plans can change in a heartbeat, but just curious as to the level of confidence that SFO will remain a growing base (or just a base at all) for the foreseeable future....
Yes, SFO will stay, as much as AS is averse to getting out of their box they do now seem to realize that growth and expansion is vital to long-term viability in the age of mega airlines.

Alternatively, the most logical end-game for an MBA would be AS acquired by UA...
- Heavy west-coast domestic capacity to complement UA's international.
- Solution for UA scope-limited UAX feed.
- No significant overlap besides SFO (everybody is in LAX, so that's a wash).
- Dilutes UA pilot retirements.

But to get that by the trust-busters would require a regime change in DC. If the-one-who-shall-not-be-mentioned were to return, I'd consider UA/AS a very real possibility.

Otherwise AS might buy HA on the cheap, if nothing else as a defensive move. That will only be good for pilots if they actually retain their newly acquired expansion, as opposed to retreating back to SEATAC like the last two mergers.
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Old 10-19-2023, 03:59 PM
  #7620  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
Thank you! Another question: I assume AK is pretty committed to SFO as a base? I get that the closure of all Bus bases and the retirement of the entire Bus fleet was a one-time thing that everyone kinda saw coming for quite some time, but it's not often that a major carrier fully retires a fleet type and closes multiple bases. Given AK's apparently more cautious growth pace than other carriers (UA, SWA all have very aggressive plans) — is it safe to say that SFO/737 will likely be a thing at AK for years to come? I realize this is the airline industry and plans can change in a heartbeat, but just curious as to the level of confidence that SFO will remain a growing base (or just a base at all) for the foreseeable future....
Everything is subject to change and nothing is forever, but SFO is really the only market to allow for large growth. SEA is capped, we all know that. LAX is too, and it is much more expensive to operate out of LAX than SFO believe it or not. The Bay Area is a huge market. It will always be a junior base but I don't see SFO going away anytime soon. They really couldn't stick more planes anywhere else.
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