Alaska Air Hiring
10-16-2023, 09:40 PM
#7591
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,992
Too big to declare bankruptcy, again?
I'll never forget the call from one of my mentors, a pilot at American who asked me over the phone one night: "should I vote on this pay cut so we don't go bankrupt?" I was still in my 20's and the lost decade was going strong. I actually still remember telling him that he shouldn't accept that and the company will just take your money. The pilot's pay was cut and the entire board was given 7 million dollars each as a golden parachute. I'm not sure if I recall the exact numbers correctly but it was a massive pay cut for the pilots. They declared bankruptcy anyway. I know this is in the Alaska history too but bankruptcy will gut a pilot contract, historically speaking.
I'll never forget the call from one of my mentors, a pilot at American who asked me over the phone one night: "should I vote on this pay cut so we don't go bankrupt?" I was still in my 20's and the lost decade was going strong. I actually still remember telling him that he shouldn't accept that and the company will just take your money. The pilot's pay was cut and the entire board was given 7 million dollars each as a golden parachute. I'm not sure if I recall the exact numbers correctly but it was a massive pay cut for the pilots. They declared bankruptcy anyway. I know this is in the Alaska history too but bankruptcy will gut a pilot contract, historically speaking.
So no, AA managers will not declare BK unless they have no other alternative. I'm certainly not an AA fan-boy, but they are too big to fail, and they won't file BK as a matter of convenience.
10-17-2023, 09:45 AM
#7592
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Guppy Gear Slinger
Posts: 1,981
All in all, for someone who lives in base and wants max days off with good schedule flexibility... If you assume that SWA will get their new contract soon, I'm struggling to understand why SWA wouldn't be attractive.
That said, I really, really, really get good vibes from Alaska and only hear happy things from my friends there. People seem happy and the work rules, routes, pay, and company culture are really attractive to me. I'm just curious why you feel SWA is so unattractive...
10-17-2023, 04:57 PM
#7593
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,992
So I live in base for both AK and SWA. I've got multiple friends at both shops who are genuinely happy there. My SWA friends are always talking about their schedule flexibility (and looking at their monthly bids vs. what they end up flying, it's impossible to ignore that SWA seems pretty awesome if your goal is to get max days off and max flexibility. (My friends are all 5 years or less on property, with most of them 2 years or less.) I know everyone on the interwebz is saying SWA is a dumpster fire, but is it really? They're saying the contract will happen and the rates will be on par with DL 737-9 and/or DL 75 rates, which is pretty solid.
Their contract will happen. How long it takes depends on mgt philosophy...
If they want to grow and compete they'll need to attract and retain pilots, and should have already done a deal, just like everybody else.
If they're praying for a good recession so they can enjoy below-industry labor costs for some years to come that would explain their current behavior.
Again IMO it depends on age. If you're older, how long do you want to suck it up in case that assumption doesn't pan out. Also they do have some structural issues, they haven't fixed their software yet and another big holiday meltdown might require hey park some planes until they can
If the base is a wash (If Bay Area, both are junior) then the schedules matter, and the type of flying.
For pure days off SWA would have a historical leg up but AS has PBS around the corner with strong associated rules.
I guess I would say that SWA carries some uncertainty. You are of course free to incur some risk in hopes of greater reward, but I do some risk.
10-17-2023, 05:27 PM
#7594
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,117
You'd have to get that info from SWA people. Preferably junior-ish people in the base you want.
Their contract will happen. How long it takes depends on mgt philosophy...
If they want to grow and compete they'll need to attract and retain pilots, and should have already done a deal, just like everybody else.
If they're praying for a good recession so they can enjoy below-industry labor costs for some years to come that would explain their current behavior.
"assume..."
Again IMO it depends on age. If you're older, how long do you want to suck it up in case that assumption doesn't pan out. Also they do have some structural issues, they haven't fixed their software yet and another big holiday meltdown might require hey park some planes until they can
If the base is a wash (If Bay Area, both are junior) then the schedules matter, and the type of flying.
For pure days off SWA would have a historical leg up but AS has PBS around the corner with strong associated rules.
I guess I would say that SWA carries some uncertainty. You are of course free to incur some risk in hopes of greater reward, but I do some risk.
Their contract will happen. How long it takes depends on mgt philosophy...
If they want to grow and compete they'll need to attract and retain pilots, and should have already done a deal, just like everybody else.
If they're praying for a good recession so they can enjoy below-industry labor costs for some years to come that would explain their current behavior.
"assume..."
Again IMO it depends on age. If you're older, how long do you want to suck it up in case that assumption doesn't pan out. Also they do have some structural issues, they haven't fixed their software yet and another big holiday meltdown might require hey park some planes until they can
If the base is a wash (If Bay Area, both are junior) then the schedules matter, and the type of flying.
For pure days off SWA would have a historical leg up but AS has PBS around the corner with strong associated rules.
I guess I would say that SWA carries some uncertainty. You are of course free to incur some risk in hopes of greater reward, but I do some risk.
anyone who says they have a spreadsheet that shows how much more you will make at a particular carrier over the next 30 years should be liable for the difference if they are wrong.
10-17-2023, 06:26 PM
#7595
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,992
how many times does it have to be stated. You will never know if you made the right decision until you retire.
anyone who says they have a spreadsheet that shows how much more you will make at a particular carrier over the next 30 years should be liable for the difference if they are wrong.
anyone who says they have a spreadsheet that shows how much more you will make at a particular carrier over the next 30 years should be liable for the difference if they are wrong.
10-18-2023, 12:29 PM
#7596
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 666
It's worth understanding that corporate bankruptcy law has changed *significantly* since then. It's not a coincidence that several legacies all filed in the same time-frame before the new law took effect. No more quick trip through the BK drive-through to shed inconvenient obligations... if managers file today they are in serious jeopardy of losing control of the company, and their jobs. Basically the creditors, not the debtors-in-possession, are in the driver's seat today.
So no, AA managers will not declare BK unless they have no other alternative. I'm certainly not an AA fan-boy, but they are too big to fail, and they won't file BK as a matter of convenience.
So no, AA managers will not declare BK unless they have no other alternative. I'm certainly not an AA fan-boy, but they are too big to fail, and they won't file BK as a matter of convenience.
10-18-2023, 01:07 PM
#7597
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
10-18-2023, 02:39 PM
#7598
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,992
10-18-2023, 03:24 PM
#7599
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 200
Looks like ANC was awarded to an April hire, so 11 months by the time the bid goes into effect.
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