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Old 09-27-2024, 05:34 AM
  #251  
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Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
Turning a 1200 acquired pilot group and sending through the taffy factory to fly all 737MAX at only a replacement rate of Alaska’s attrition is very implausible indeed.
That's kind of what happened with the VX airbii though, so some folks have PTSD.

But in this case I think it's much less plausible... they bought VX not because they wanted them but because they were afraid of B6 getting them. We have new-ish top management and they seem to have ambitions which the guppy alone can't fulfill.
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Old 09-27-2024, 06:34 AM
  #252  
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Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
Even if I take a haircut, I hope your overnighting in 3 years from now in Narita eating your words and Ramen. FYI our widebody rates were behind industry too pre 2017 (and still are). So we paid those same “dues” you say so it’s a wash across both airlines on that one.



Yeah, no joke.
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yeah he's pretty pessimistic, worst case outlook (but not strictly impossible). Even if AS gets sent to the cleaners on SLI, it only matters if there's shrinkage in the mid-term.

The VX thing was painful because they basically shrunk the airline back to pre-merger fleet size. Hopefully this isn't that.

Trying to stay positive.
Originally Posted by MinRest
This is, at the very best, a completely belligerent take on reality. I literally don't even know where to start...
As far as aircraft deliveries go. He's not wrong. Boeing can deliver 6, 787s a month and that puts us at 10 787s by 2030. At 18 pilots per airframe: 180 pilots or 4% of the pilot group.

Wildcard is the 330. Look as much as I hope we get 40 330 NEOs and Renton Longacres becomes the biggest 330 training center in the world. I don't think it's going to happen. As much as I'd like instructing on the 330 and sleeping in my own bed every night. It would be great if it did. I just don't see it happening.

We need something good to happen. Right now talks are going on to shut down and layoff the suppliers for the 737. When that happens the real delivery delays begin on the MAX.

Aloha to all the HA pilots. None of us asked for this and none of us control the outcome of the SLI. I just hope I get to sit next to someone cool at work.
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Old 09-27-2024, 08:03 AM
  #253  
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[QUOTE=PineappleXpres;3840134]Even if I take a haircut, I hope your overnighting in 3 years from now in Narita eating your words and Ramen. FYI our widebody rates were behind industry too pre 2017 (and still are). So we paid those same “dues” you say so it’s a wash across both airlines on that one.

Your big flex is "ramen in Narita"? I would have respected "using your American accent to your advantage in Sydney".

I did all my long haul flying/travel as a younger person. I'm good on "ramen in Narita".
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Old 09-27-2024, 08:11 AM
  #254  
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[QUOTE=AKCattleCarrier;3840237]
Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
Even if I take a haircut, I hope your overnighting in 3 years from now in Narita eating your words and Ramen. FYI our widebody rates were behind industry too pre 2017 (and still are). So we paid those same “dues” you say so it’s a wash across both airlines on that one.

Your big flex is "ramen in Narita"? I would have respected "using your American accent to your advantage in Sydney".

I did all my long haul flying/travel as a younger person. I'm good on "ramen in Narita".
Your humor is clearly better than mine. I just have a sense that if you are having a good day, you may not realize it.
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Old 09-27-2024, 10:26 AM
  #255  
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So what's the alternative? **** and moan and belittle each other on the internet in an anonymous forum and lose sleep over a process none of us has ANY CONTROL OVER WHATSOEVER...is that it?

Or...We could all just keep our (likely very incorrect) assumptions to ourselves like rational, emotionally regulated adults and see what gets arbitrated, WHEN it gets arbitrated - our MEC's will do what they do and we will get what we get. Unless you're in a very specific union position you aren't moving the needle here AT ALL by being a dick to our future coworkers.

From an Alaska guy to the Hawaiian guys, welcome - it'll all work out in due time and I'm excited to meet every one of you. Don't let the vocal minority on this dumb forum taint the waters or cause you any angst, take the high road and we'll see you all on the line. I've been here for some time, fly a ton and the above is the majority of opinion amongst the Alaska pilots, young and old. It'll all work out. If you need proof head on over to the other, non-anonymous forum and see how welcoming and warm the Alaska pilot group truly is.

Aloha!

Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Please don’t fight. We need unity. And then when one side proposes 15% longevity and 85% relative, and the other side proposes 70% longevity and 30% relative, you’re still supposed to have unity and act lovey dovey.


Can’t wait to see the SLI proposals from both sides, while in the same breath telling us to maintain unity.
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Old 09-27-2024, 10:26 AM
  #256  
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I find it interesting that this group thinks that 360 current AS pilots touching a 787 is a bearish outlook. 20 787s x 18 pilots per tail = 360 pilots or 10% of the current list. This assumes short or no fences, and that the HA pilot group, fresh off SLI wins, magically vanishes or somehow doesnt want to bid the 787s that their company ordered. Also assumes the 787s don't replace the 330's one for one and that 787s come online on schedule (which is a wild assumption since Boeing cant even remember to put in all the bolts these days). To me this is an overwhelmingly bullish case for AS pilots that want to fly wide body metal and I thought I was presenting an argument that gave borderline ridiculous benefit of doubt.

Yet this seems to be the general sentiment with left seaters I fly with rock hard with emotion for 787s. I think the AS pilot group is dellusional about the prospects this merger presents for their career. Time will tell. I don't think we need time to realize significant risk has been inserted into the AS business model, a business model that wasn't sexy, but was secure and profitable. Basically the only argument I had left for staying here.

I don't know why some people think that touching grass correlates with being in favor of this merger? That argument strikes me as reductio ad absurdum. Maybe my NE sense of humor doesn't come across in type? Ive been told I'm blunt.

I also don't understand why its suprising that a group that will have gone through 2 SLI's in 10 years is somehow out of line to express dismay and frustration with the progress of their career choices. Maybe people forgot the details of how the last merger went? The lack of growth, stalling of seniority progress for years while your peers were rocketing up their seniority lists (2015-2017), the riddance of bases, routes, and airplanes. The endless bickering back and forth between people with black pants vs people with blue. Or how about the utter frustration of transition CAs (to the point where it felt unsafe sometimes) that knew they had inadequate training and experience on the 737 to be sitting in the left seat, simply ****ed to be in the guppy at all. I could go on and on and on and yet people seem to have forgotten, to include our own union leaders.

People keep arguing I'm in the minority. Maybe...I bet not. I bet their are lots and lots of people like me, and when realities dawn on them they will make their voices heard. Some details are different in this merger, many many are not. History repeats itself often.

Long break for me. The dellusion is exhausting. Enjoy no reality checks for a while. Makes the circle jerk so much better......COME ON! its funny. West Coast people will never get it.
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Old 09-27-2024, 10:37 AM
  #257  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
I find it interesting that this group thinks that 360 current AS pilots touching a 787 is a bearish outlook. 20 787s x 18 pilots per tail = 360 pilots or 10% of the current list. This assumes short or no fences, and that the HA pilot group, fresh off SLI wins, magically vanishes or somehow doesnt want to bid the 787s that their company ordered. Also assumes the 787s don't replace the 330's one for one and that 787s come online on schedule (which is a wild assumption since Boeing cant even remember to put in all the bolts these days). To me this is an overwhelmingly bullish case for AS pilots that want to fly wide body metal and I thought I was presenting an argument that gave borderline ridiculous benefit of doubt.

Yet this seems to be the general sentiment with left seaters I fly with rock hard with emotion for 787s. I think the AS pilot group is dellusional about the prospects this merger presents for their career. Time will tell. I don't think we need time to realize significant risk has been inserted into the AS business model, a business model that wasn't sexy, but was secure and profitable. Basically the only argument I had left for staying here.

I don't know why some people think that touching grass correlates with being in favor of this merger? That argument strikes me as reductio ad absurdum. Maybe my NE sense of humor doesn't come across in type? Ive been told I'm blunt.

I also don't understand why its suprising that a group that will have gone through 2 SLI's in 10 years is somehow out of line to express dismay and frustration with the progress of their career choices. Maybe people forgot the details of how the last merger went? The lack of growth, stalling of seniority progress for years while your peers were rocketing up their seniority lists (2015-2017), the riddance of bases, routes, and airplanes. The endless bickering back and forth between people with black pants vs people with blue. Or how about the utter frustration of transition CAs (to the point where it felt unsafe sometimes) that knew they had inadequate training and experience on the 737 to be sitting in the left seat, simply ****ed to be in the guppy at all. I could go on and on and on and yet people seem to have forgotten, to include our own union leaders.

People keep arguing I'm in the minority. Maybe...I bet not. I bet their are lots and lots of people like me, and when realities dawn on them they will make their voices heard. Some details are different in this merger, many many are not. History repeats itself often.

Long break for me. The dellusion is exhausting. Enjoy no reality checks for a while. Makes the circle jerk so much better......COME ON! its funny. West Coast people will never get it.
Well……. Bye.
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Old 09-27-2024, 03:34 PM
  #258  
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Originally Posted by Foodstamps
So what's the alternative? **** and moan and belittle each other on the internet in an anonymous forum and lose sleep over a process none of us has ANY CONTROL OVER WHATSOEVER...is that it?

Or...We could all just keep our (likely very incorrect) assumptions to ourselves like rational, emotionally regulated adults and see what gets arbitrated, WHEN it gets arbitrated - our MEC's will do what they do and we will get what we get. Unless you're in a very specific union position you aren't moving the needle here AT ALL by being a dick to our future coworkers.

From an Alaska guy to the Hawaiian guys, welcome - it'll all work out in due time and I'm excited to meet every one of you. Don't let the vocal minority on this dumb forum taint the waters or cause you any angst, take the high road and we'll see you all on the line. I've been here for some time, fly a ton and the above is the majority of opinion amongst the Alaska pilots, young and old. It'll all work out. If you need proof head on over to the other, non-anonymous forum and see how welcoming and warm the Alaska pilot group truly is.

Aloha!
I'll admit it, I'm far harder on people in here than I would ever be in real life. I tend to be pretty reserved in demeanor and I feel like this is my one chance to make my feelings known. And you are right, making my feelings known probably won't amount to a hill of beans difference to the actual SLI, but it's good for me to actually express an opinion to someone somewhere. Verbalization (or I suppose articulation would be the more accurate term) is the tempering of strongly held opinion with reality. It's all the better that it happens on an anonymous forum.

If the truth will be told, I'm actually pretty positive about this combination of the two airlines. I'm not sure if I can base this on anything but a hunch, but I think it will be good. I'm not super optimistic about my own WB aspiriations (if there were any in the first place--as I said, earlier, if I'd really wanted to fly a heavy, I'd already be doing so), but there is something good about this that I can't quite put my finger on.

Ultimately, none of us asked for this, and none of us really has any say in the matter. Fingers crossed for some movement on the NB side. That's my hope.

Aloha to all.
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Old 09-27-2024, 05:00 PM
  #259  
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Originally Posted by Yakattack
I'll admit it, I'm far harder on people in here than I would ever be in real life. I tend to be pretty reserved in demeanor and I feel like this is my one chance to make my feelings known. And you are right, making my feelings known probably won't amount to a hill of beans difference to the actual SLI, but it's good for me to actually express an opinion to someone somewhere. Verbalization (or I suppose articulation would be the more accurate term) is the tempering of strongly held opinion with reality. It's all the better that it happens on an anonymous forum.

If the truth will be told, I'm actually pretty positive about this combination of the two airlines. I'm not sure if I can base this on anything but a hunch, but I think it will be good. I'm not super optimistic about my own WB aspiriations (if there were any in the first place--as I said, earlier, if I'd really wanted to fly a heavy, I'd already be doing so), but there is something good about this that I can't quite put my finger on.

Ultimately, none of us asked for this, and none of us really has any say in the matter. Fingers crossed for some movement on the NB side. That's my hope.

Aloha to all.
I came to Alaska with the expectation of flying the 737 for 20 years, and possibly flying a 787 at the end of my career, just based on their love of Boeing and the possibility that a larger airframe made sense in the future. I think many of us see this merger as a possibility for improvement in the route structure and corporate philosophy that accelerates the expectations that I already had of Alaska.

I hope we are able to turn the Hawaiian side profitable without too many cuts, since that leads to stagnation, but honestly I'm expecting some reduction for cost savings and fleet optimization. I am glad that our non-rev benefits are more valuable now with the increased route network, and hope that it leads to further growth and new destinations. I plan to stay LAX based for my career, so don't really expect widebody flying to be put down there.

The virgin merger added a base in SFO, and Hawaiian will add a base in HNL. Those are good things in my opinion.
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Old 09-27-2024, 08:48 PM
  #260  
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So glad you don't work for us. Your baseline level of misery, anger and saltiness is a great fit for American. You can see your way out now as it's obvious you don't know $hit about $hit and are just here to stoke what you hope to make into a fire, but isn't working since everyone in the room is far more informed than you are about ALPA to ALPA mergers. Byeeeeeee

Originally Posted by Point85ToTheFix
We all choose where we work man and that comes with pluses and minuses. There were guys that loved air Tran or stayed there so they could drive to work just like you do.

Bottom line is what about guys who left the failing company to go work for the buying one?? They will end up lower than those who stayed at the failing one? Makes no sense. Pilots who work for a company that is going under then purchased should be happy to still be employed and would have been at the bottom of any list that would have them next regardless.
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