787 routes
07-14-2024, 05:25 AM
#72
Mmmm wine
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Position: The Jet
Posts: 1,067
Uhh I "realize" you are being condescending, I choose not to respond in kind.
They only have 17 717s. So my guess is we could cover it now if the yield on that flying justifys it. We have plenty of low yield filler routes in our system to pull from or move to Skywest/Horizon. I'm not sure if inter-island flying is subsidized by the state. Its not hard to get the extra tails out there either as I think it is likely that the A330 routes from the islands to the west coast don't last and they will be filled by narrow body flying (bummer). The idea that you can fly 17 of anything narrow body and get the economies of scale necessary to justify the cost of operting a seperate type is what I don't buy (till a door plug blows out eh?). Alaska/Horizon learned this lesson with its forray into the CRJ in the 2000's.
They only have 17 717s. So my guess is we could cover it now if the yield on that flying justifys it. We have plenty of low yield filler routes in our system to pull from or move to Skywest/Horizon. I'm not sure if inter-island flying is subsidized by the state. Its not hard to get the extra tails out there either as I think it is likely that the A330 routes from the islands to the west coast don't last and they will be filled by narrow body flying (bummer). The idea that you can fly 17 of anything narrow body and get the economies of scale necessary to justify the cost of operting a seperate type is what I don't buy (till a door plug blows out eh?). Alaska/Horizon learned this lesson with its forray into the CRJ in the 2000's.
07-14-2024, 05:35 AM
#73
Mmmm wine
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Position: The Jet
Posts: 1,067
I agree with all this and what AKCattlecarrier says, I cannot for the life of me understand why an Alaska pilot, other than maybe a commuter out of the islands would want this merger.
Boggles my mind the newer pilots I fly with are excited about it, yet they complain about the current stagnation. The merger is not even approved and we are getting almost monthly email threats of downgrades and displacements. I have no idea of the time frame, but I think it’s a safe bet if this goes through, the 717, 321, and 330 are gone as quickly as they can make it happen and HNL shrinks substantially, despite all their unicorn and rainbows rhetoric. If this merger is approved it will make the current level of stagnation at Alaska look tolerable.
Boggles my mind the newer pilots I fly with are excited about it, yet they complain about the current stagnation. The merger is not even approved and we are getting almost monthly email threats of downgrades and displacements. I have no idea of the time frame, but I think it’s a safe bet if this goes through, the 717, 321, and 330 are gone as quickly as they can make it happen and HNL shrinks substantially, despite all their unicorn and rainbows rhetoric. If this merger is approved it will make the current level of stagnation at Alaska look tolerable.
We are also not getting monthly downgrade and displacement threats. We did get one because management can't figure out how to staff with PBS and the new reserve rules. We cannot be overstaffed at the same time as canceling flights due to lack of proper staffing...
07-14-2024, 10:01 AM
#74
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,586
This is a fixed AS mindset. I understand why you have it, how it was developed and imprinted in so many people who have been at AS for a long time. That being said, you are assuming that AS is buying HA under the same plan as VX and that is simply not the case. HA isn't even a competitor to AS. They don't threaten AS anywhere, there is no need to buy this airline to shrink. You are also assuming that AS doesn't plan to grow, which they do. There will be trimming the fat like any merger but what you are proposing is once again, spending billions on an airline just to X it from existence. At no point during the AS/VX merger did hiring freeze for years even when VX was erased. We still need pilots, we still need airplanes terribly, and both airlines have growth projections.
We are also not getting monthly downgrade and displacement threats. We did get one because management can't figure out how to staff with PBS and the new reserve rules. We cannot be overstaffed at the same time as canceling flights due to lack of proper staffing...
We are also not getting monthly downgrade and displacement threats. We did get one because management can't figure out how to staff with PBS and the new reserve rules. We cannot be overstaffed at the same time as canceling flights due to lack of proper staffing...
07-14-2024, 10:57 AM
#75
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2023
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 66
"tell me you know nothing about HI flying" / "Tactical Operations" ....here it is again from a HA pilots. They seem to think that the inter-island is somehow a special operation. WE DO THE EXACT SAME THING RIGHT NOW. We do it everyday up and down SE Alaska, short hops, worse weather, more mountains, lots more snow, lots of wind, lots of freight, etc. Its literally the exact same thing, and it is roped into the non-SE AK 737 route structure all over the place. We don't have a seperate fleet dedicated to that flying. Is there some reason why the exact same concept can't work out there? It is what Alaska knows and it works. Pretty soon a 737 will go SEA - HNL, and instead of turning around and coming back to the west coast, it will turn and do 3-4 (5? yikes) stops inter-island, and then turn it to come back to the west coast. As soon as that routes established, you can retire your next 717 thats due for heavy check, and so on and so on. It will not take long before the 717 community is in a shrinking fleet with shrinking bidding options. I hadn't thought about the new hire thats forced to commute out to HNL and sit jr reserve on the 717. Seems like that is another terrific reason to begin the process of winding down this fleet immediately.
This idea that somehow HA is going to get a cash infusion and it will be business as usual is simply not true. The HA route structure, business model, operational structure, is broken. Otherwise the stock wouldn't have been at $5. Lots of the reason for that is circumstantial....engines, Japanese tourists, covid, etc. But every other airline besides Spirit came flying out of the gates with a fresh tranch of government money and an economy that was dying to fly somewhere. HA didn't, thats because they have the misfortune of having a business model with very specific vulnerabilities. If you really think Angle Lake is going to simply leave this operation alone to subject themselves to the same threats and weaknesses that have taken down HA you are kidding yourselves. There is a lot of things to say about BM and ST. Being dumb isn't one of them.
The idea that this time is going to be different, I'm sure in some respects, but past precedent is a good predictor of future behavior. It will be interesting to watch, and there will be lots of pilot careers effected in the process. Deltas latest earnings report should be peaking everyones interest. I'm not saying the economic sky is falling or that the world is ending. But the stimmy money is burning off and a return to more normalized demand is inevitable. This is important, because it gives Angle Lake room to maneuver and justify unloading unprofitable assets into a new demand paradigm. Probably works out well for the company as a whole. Not so much for pilots.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...et/ar-BB1pKsJj
There is value in HA somewhere, maybe its just the obvious like 787 orders and island market share. Or maybe its more strategic like AS staving off being bought by another carrier. IDK, but certainly they bought it for a reason. What is not correct is that mergers (in general) are good for pilot careers. In this case AS pilot careers because our business is doing very well. I can not see any actual EVIDENCE that their was something flawed in our business model or that this merger was required for our survival. We are, at worst, in the top 1/3 of every metric a Wall Street investor looks at. Maybe there are external threats that we can't see but Ben can. Whats good for the company as a whole doesn't neccessarily mean its good for our careers.
The VA pilots post merger were very frustrated because their new center of gravity (Deathstar) became Seattle. It was a change of mindset that VA pilots I flew with constantly complained about. You can agree with the AS fixation on Seattle or not, but it is a fact. HA pilots will have to rearrange their mindset and realize they HNL is now a subsidary base like LAX, SFO, PDX, ANC. There will be lots of decisions that make no sense to them because Angle Lake looks at everything from a defend SEA first mindset.
Again, I don't want bad things for pilots. But now post VA merger we have seen how this goes down. I conceed it won't be exactly the same, but their is a playbook to integrating two operational structures, and it includes significant pain points for pilots. Talk to VA pilots if you can find them. Their experience is very notable. I listened to lots and lots of them on long red eyes. I found it very valuable information.
This idea that somehow HA is going to get a cash infusion and it will be business as usual is simply not true. The HA route structure, business model, operational structure, is broken. Otherwise the stock wouldn't have been at $5. Lots of the reason for that is circumstantial....engines, Japanese tourists, covid, etc. But every other airline besides Spirit came flying out of the gates with a fresh tranch of government money and an economy that was dying to fly somewhere. HA didn't, thats because they have the misfortune of having a business model with very specific vulnerabilities. If you really think Angle Lake is going to simply leave this operation alone to subject themselves to the same threats and weaknesses that have taken down HA you are kidding yourselves. There is a lot of things to say about BM and ST. Being dumb isn't one of them.
The idea that this time is going to be different, I'm sure in some respects, but past precedent is a good predictor of future behavior. It will be interesting to watch, and there will be lots of pilot careers effected in the process. Deltas latest earnings report should be peaking everyones interest. I'm not saying the economic sky is falling or that the world is ending. But the stimmy money is burning off and a return to more normalized demand is inevitable. This is important, because it gives Angle Lake room to maneuver and justify unloading unprofitable assets into a new demand paradigm. Probably works out well for the company as a whole. Not so much for pilots.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...et/ar-BB1pKsJj
There is value in HA somewhere, maybe its just the obvious like 787 orders and island market share. Or maybe its more strategic like AS staving off being bought by another carrier. IDK, but certainly they bought it for a reason. What is not correct is that mergers (in general) are good for pilot careers. In this case AS pilot careers because our business is doing very well. I can not see any actual EVIDENCE that their was something flawed in our business model or that this merger was required for our survival. We are, at worst, in the top 1/3 of every metric a Wall Street investor looks at. Maybe there are external threats that we can't see but Ben can. Whats good for the company as a whole doesn't neccessarily mean its good for our careers.
The VA pilots post merger were very frustrated because their new center of gravity (Deathstar) became Seattle. It was a change of mindset that VA pilots I flew with constantly complained about. You can agree with the AS fixation on Seattle or not, but it is a fact. HA pilots will have to rearrange their mindset and realize they HNL is now a subsidary base like LAX, SFO, PDX, ANC. There will be lots of decisions that make no sense to them because Angle Lake looks at everything from a defend SEA first mindset.
Again, I don't want bad things for pilots. But now post VA merger we have seen how this goes down. I conceed it won't be exactly the same, but their is a playbook to integrating two operational structures, and it includes significant pain points for pilots. Talk to VA pilots if you can find them. Their experience is very notable. I listened to lots and lots of them on long red eyes. I found it very valuable information.
07-14-2024, 11:24 AM
#76
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 669
This is a fixed AS mindset. I understand why you have it, how it was developed and imprinted in so many people who have been at AS for a long time. That being said, you are assuming that AS is buying HA under the same plan as VX and that is simply not the case. HA isn't even a competitor to AS. They don't threaten AS anywhere, there is no need to buy this airline to shrink. You are also assuming that AS doesn't plan to grow, which they do. There will be trimming the fat like any merger but what you are proposing is once again, spending billions on an airline just to X it from existence. At no point during the AS/VX merger did hiring freeze for years even when VX was erased. We still need pilots, we still need airplanes terribly, and both airlines have growth projections.
We are also not getting monthly downgrade and displacement threats. We did get one because management can't figure out how to staff with PBS and the new reserve rules. We cannot be overstaffed at the same time as canceling flights due to lack of proper staffing...
We are also not getting monthly downgrade and displacement threats. We did get one because management can't figure out how to staff with PBS and the new reserve rules. We cannot be overstaffed at the same time as canceling flights due to lack of proper staffing...
1) Reserves being restricted from open time pick up was "to prevent downgrades" according to an MEC rep. Sadly Premium time was issued while these junior pilots remained restricted. Not a good look for the MEC.
2) An email from mgmt directly threatening downgrades this spring. Due to FO's on reserve being out of position when converted from long call to short call. Doesn't make sense to me but here we are.
3) The most recent pilot call downgrades were mentioned as a viable option to control overstaffing but to what extent I do not know.
So not monthly but more than quarterly. It's very demoralizing for junior captains and probably not great for FO retention. At least for the FOs who have stopped drinking the Kool Aid.
I'm guessing we will see a threat of downgrades for the Fall with a possible reduction bid as well.
07-14-2024, 03:54 PM
#77
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,155
"tell me you know nothing about HI flying" / "Tactical Operations" ....here it is again from a HA pilots. They seem to think that the inter-island is somehow a special operation. WE DO THE EXACT SAME THING RIGHT NOW. We do it everyday up and down SE Alaska, short hops, worse weather, more mountains, lots more snow, lots of wind, lots of freight, etc. Its literally the exact same thing, and it is roped into the non-SE AK 737 route structure all over the place. We don't have a seperate fleet dedicated to that flying. Is there some reason why the exact same concept can't work out there? It is what Alaska knows and it works. Pretty soon a 737 will go SEA - HNL, and instead of turning around and coming back to the west coast, it will turn and do 3-4 (5? yikes) stops inter-island, and then turn it to come back to the west coast. As soon as that routes established, you can retire your next 717 thats due for heavy check, and so on and so on. It will not take long before the 717 community is in a shrinking fleet with shrinking bidding options. I hadn't thought about the new hire thats forced to commute out to HNL and sit jr reserve on the 717. Seems like that is another terrific reason to begin the process of winding down this fleet immediately.
07-14-2024, 05:04 PM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: outside
Posts: 714
Uhh, you realize SWA is taking a huge loss on the interisland flying? While I agree that it will eventually be done by a different aircraft it's gonna be awhile. We don't have the planes for the current schedule we want to be flying. How long do you think it's going to take to have enough 73s on property to take over the inter-island stuff?
Last edited by Neosporin; 07-14-2024 at 05:18 PM. Reason: sp
07-14-2024, 05:09 PM
#79
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2019
Posts: 37
"tell me you know nothing about HI flying" / "Tactical Operations" ....here it is again from a HA pilots. They seem to think that the inter-island is somehow a special operation. WE DO THE EXACT SAME THING RIGHT NOW. We do it everyday up and down SE Alaska, short hops, worse weather, more mountains, lots more snow, lots of wind, lots of freight, etc. Its literally the exact same thing, and it is roped into the non-SE AK 737 route structure all over the place. We don't have a seperate fleet dedicated to that flying. Is there some reason why the exact same concept can't work out there? It is what Alaska knows and it works. Pretty soon a 737 will go SEA - HNL, and instead of turning around and coming back to the west coast, it will turn and do 3-4 (5? yikes) stops inter-island, and then turn it to come back to the west coast.
Nobody doubts the professionalism and dedication of the AS crews up there and the challenging operation. Comparing the operational requirements of two daily ops with 50 minute ground times to 170 flights connecting to multiple networks spanning 12 time zones (while keeping fares under $100) is just weird.
07-15-2024, 01:54 PM
#80
New Hire
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Posts: 2
I remember first hearing that the 787 was a replacement for the 330. Then, it changed to good news; that it’s for growth. Then, some 330 leases that were ending were renewed due to 787 delivery delays (indicating replacements not growth). Latest vacancy has 330 pilot position cancellations as another 787 is being added. So what’s going on? Sounds like shrinking 330 for 787 to me.
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