DenainaPilot

This is the correct take. No one really knows management’s strategy or plans, and we don’t even know if the feds are going to contest the merger yet. It also depends on how long it takes Boeing to deliver planes, that could continue to through cause pain.

JLAMS16

Exactly….
And it will be if the acquisition happens, not really what a pilot wants to sign up for unless you already live there.

GoodJet

While that is true it is fairly easy to see the issues with overstaffing and fleet reductions going forward.

Boeing is key. Right now there is a 6-7 year wait to get a new 787. Sure all of the HA options could make it on property. MAX 10 there is a 2 year wait after the engine cowls are redesigned. It's up to the Feds yet again when Boeing can increase production of approved airframes.

Airbus. I don't have any SA on the timeline for deliveries on the 330. I can't imagine that it is a very short waitlist or that Air Group could source new aircraft or even used aircraft in a timely manner.

If there are any kind of reductions, either the 321 or 717 in the present environment for deliveries there will be a lot of pain when it comes to an SLI, displacements and downgrades. Things could work out in the distant future but for now I agree with AKCattlecarrier. The next 3-5 years the best outcome is that nothing changes quickly or at all.

flysnoopy76

I agree with all this and what AKCattlecarrier says, I cannot for the life of me understand why an Alaska pilot, other than maybe a commuter out of the islands would want this merger.
Boggles my mind the newer pilots I fly with are excited about it, yet they complain about the current stagnation. The merger is not even approved and we are getting almost monthly email threats of downgrades and displacements. I have no idea of the time frame, but I think it’s a safe bet if this goes through, the 717, 321, and 330 are gone as quickly as they can make it happen and HNL shrinks substantially, despite all their unicorn and rainbows rhetoric. If this merger is approved it will make the current level of stagnation at Alaska look tolerable.

GoodJet

I hope that all 3 of those airframes don't go away. 3-5 years of backwards seniority and stagnation. More if the likely outcome of Boeing not being able to get it together drags on any longer. Thankfully we don't have any MAX 7s and I think the MAX 10s were meant to be between 10-15 total airframes. It will be years before those see the light of day.

word302

Uhh, you realize SWA is taking a huge loss on the interisland flying? While I agree that it will eventually be done by a different aircraft it's gonna be awhile. We don't have the planes for the current schedule we want to be flying. How long do you think it's going to take to have enough 73s on property to take over the inter-island stuff?

AKCattleCarrier

Uhh I "realize" you are being condescending, I choose not to respond in kind.

They only have 17 717s. So my guess is we could cover it now if the yield on that flying justifys it. We have plenty of low yield filler routes in our system to pull from or move to Skywest/Horizon. I'm not sure if inter-island flying is subsidized by the state. Its not hard to get the extra tails out there either as I think it is likely that the A330 routes from the islands to the west coast don't last and they will be filled by narrow body flying (bummer). The idea that you can fly 17 of anything narrow body and get the economies of scale necessary to justify the cost of operting a seperate type is what I don't buy (till a door plug blows out eh?). Alaska/Horizon learned this lesson with its forray into the CRJ in the 2000's.

Akamai

“Uhh” tell us you know nothing about flying in HI without telling us you know nothing about flying in HI…

nick89

lol +1

this guy is throwing **** at the wall on everything and hoping it sticks

WindWalker999

I know nothing whatsoever about Alaska's financial decision-making style, but cannot imagine that they would really unload the HA fleet as quickly as people seem to think. It does not make financial sense in the current environment. Especially the 717. The planes are owned outright by HA currently, and are not in much worse shape than they were 10 or 15 years ago. The thing is built like a tank and is uniquely suited to the "tactical operations" that Interisland flying really turns out to be. Keeping that fleet alive will remain profitable until Delta stops flying them and parts become hard to come by. For now that is not really a thing....yet. More importantly anything that messes with interisland will essentially hand that market share back to SWA, which seems like something Alaska would be even less likely to do than Hawaiian.

For the 330, threre is no "back-out clause" for Alaska to drop the Amazon flying that I know of (I could be wrong). So at least until the first 8 year deal ends, the infrastructure to support the 330 will still be around. They don't have a choice! Seeing how difficult procuring new aircraft is currently, if Alaska wants to use widebodies for anything beyond HA's current routes, it will have to be with existing planes for a little while. It would not make a lot of sense to unload them until the additional 787s are actually on property in numbers that support ALL of the flying that is eventually planned, whatever in the heck that turns out to be. How long is it going to take to get 20+ 787s on property, really?

And the 321 is a better product for transpac than the MAX (which isn't really saying much, I know). I ride both, frequently. The mid-cabin lav and Starlink are hard to beat, and the fuel burn is exactly the same as the 717 to the pound. Think about it. More importantly, unlike MAXes that will be built at some questionable point in the future, the planes are sitting on the ramp, and half of them are owned outright. If it makes money, it will stay, at least until MAX-10's are real things you get see on the ramp.

Once everyone gets together and sings kumbaya over all the various proprietary data that is currently not being shared, whatever is actually making money will probably stick around for a little while at least. The logic that finance people use is not the same logic that pilots use, so we are probably all wrong. Follow the money!