Alaska buying Hawaiian airlines.
12-10-2023, 12:44 PM
#221
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 98
A few thoughts on this high-speed rail option... The company that will run this, Brightline, already runs a successful high-speed rail line in Florida. They finished that project on time and it's profitable. This new LA to Vegas line was given right of way in the median of I-15 which makes it less complicated to build than the over-budget north-south highspeed rail that California has been struggling to build for more than a decade. Unlike the north-south project, the LA-Vegas line won't need to fight every city, county, and farmer for right of way. This project is shovel-ready.
Here's an in-depth analysis of travel times that compares flying to driving to taking proposed the high-speed rail between LA and Vegas on a Friday evening. No surprise, flying comes out on top, followed by high-speed rail, followed by driving. Rail only loses to flying because the station is located out in the middle of nowhere and Los Angeles has abysmal mass transit options and terrible traffic.
Here's an in-depth analysis of travel times that compares flying to driving to taking proposed the high-speed rail between LA and Vegas on a Friday evening. No surprise, flying comes out on top, followed by high-speed rail, followed by driving. Rail only loses to flying because the station is located out in the middle of nowhere and Los Angeles has abysmal mass transit options and terrible traffic.
12-10-2023, 03:15 PM
#223
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2022
Posts: 59
Yes, keep pushing this to everyone, people get scared easily and don't understand the details and just instantly think 2 airlines merging is 2 airlines merging so it will be like the JB / Spirit issues....drive the HA price down to pick up more and then cash in on the $18 buyout when it happens.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
12-10-2023, 03:23 PM
#224
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
Yes, keep pushing this to everyone, people get scared easily and don't understand the details and just instantly think 2 airlines merging is 2 airlines merging so it will be like the JB / Spirit issues....drive the HA price down to pick up more and then cash in on the $18 buyout when it happens.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
I wouldn't call it a regulatory slam dunk just yet but clearly better prospects than B6/NK.
In the event of regime change in DC next Nov... slam dunk.
12-10-2023, 05:43 PM
#225
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 751
Yes. And keeping the HA inter-island business financially healthy and viable is important to those consumers. Alternative is SWA monopoly? Or ferries?
I wouldn't call it a regulatory slam dunk just yet but clearly better prospects than B6/NK.
In the event of regime change in DC next Nov... slam dunk.
I wouldn't call it a regulatory slam dunk just yet but clearly better prospects than B6/NK.
In the event of regime change in DC next Nov... slam dunk.
I found this very relivant to what you mentioned before about NIMBYism:
Ferry operations were suspended in March 2009 after the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that a state law allowing the Superferry to operate without a second complete environmental impact statement was unconstitutional. The company went bankrupt as a result of these actions preventing service in Hawaii.
12-11-2023, 09:50 AM
#226
Quarantined
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 181
Not true. There are many instances of convictions for insider trading where the person themself did not make trades. Passing non-public insider information to others can also be insider trading.
12-11-2023, 02:24 PM
#227
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,939
Yes, keep pushing this to everyone, people get scared easily and don't understand the details and just instantly think 2 airlines merging is 2 airlines merging so it will be like the JB / Spirit issues....drive the HA price down to pick up more and then cash in on the $18 buyout when it happens.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
JB / Spirit DOJ objections (HA / AS comparison)
By far their #1 objection: Removes an ULCC from the market (fact) thus reducing low fares for a certain customer base (HA / AS similar airlines in their pricing / customer base, does not change anything there, does not remove an ULCC from the market )
#2 : Route overlap 10% JB / Spirit (3% for HA / AS, easily adjusted with minimal to no impact to consumers)
HA struggling financially, easy to show it will help them stick around and be good for the customer. No real recent apples-apples comparison. DOJ has valid points agains the JB / Spirit merger and JB has some weak counters to it (like "Frontier will just pick up all the former Spirit ULCC customers and they will be able to get the same low fares"...weak defense), and the DOJ is still struggling to block it with valid arguments, it is now looking at more concessions which means it is likely to go through if the judge can be appeased with the concessions....I don't see any basis that the DOJ could stand on to block this one, they may try (and lose, which will furhter help the potential gain on the stock price), but ultimately there is no good reason not to allow this...It is good for keeping HA around, good for customers (they will be able to show that easily) and limited negative. In fact after they lose suing to block the JB / Spirit merger with valid arguments I am not sure they will have the desire to go after the HA / AS merger with almost nothing to base a block. At most there may be some discussion and maybe concessions on the OneWorld Alliance, but maybe not even that.
12-11-2023, 02:29 PM
#228
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,939
Which of the two regimes?
1: Mergers can be good, or can be bad. Mergers are, the act of merging. he he he he he. It's when two companies merge, so we call that a merger.
or
2: This Alaska-Hawaiian merger is going to be beautiful. The biggest, the best you've ever seen. I've seen mergers before, believe me, you haven't seen one like this. It'll be big, it'll be beautiful.
1: Mergers can be good, or can be bad. Mergers are, the act of merging. he he he he he. It's when two companies merge, so we call that a merger.
or
2: This Alaska-Hawaiian merger is going to be beautiful. The biggest, the best you've ever seen. I've seen mergers before, believe me, you haven't seen one like this. It'll be big, it'll be beautiful.
12-11-2023, 03:15 PM
#229
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
Since AS has made all the right noises about keeping the brand, island service, jobs and cultural roots the Hawaiians might consider this an opportunity to stabilize a local institution.
12-11-2023, 03:42 PM
#230
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2023
Posts: 384
Unity!
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