Alaska buying Hawaiian airlines.
09-07-2024, 05:29 PM
#1711
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2010
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 240
If this is fundamentally political, here's my suspicions...
In late spring AS and DOJ agreed to a timeline for merger review:
a) AS would not consumate the merger financially for a period of 90 (IIRC) days.
b) DOJ commits to completing the review within that period, and making a decision (to do nothing as it turned out).
DOJ may have intended to torpedo the deal, but knew they had to go through some official looking motions first or maybe they actually wanted to consider what Island people thought.
Then there was this big debate on TV, all the associated political fallout, and the current regime is on the ropes with an election looming.
DOJ is now committed to a timeline, that runs out before the election, but their political bosses don't want negative economic publicity. DOJ gets ordered to not block, but is given some leash to squeeze for concessions. They cannot stall indefinitely because they already agreed to a timeline. While AS can (and did) agree to mutually extend the timeline it would not be in AS's interest to extend it for long, especially past the election.
That might explain DOJ's passive aggressive behavior of letting the clock run out without any comment.
Now the angry activists at justice scurry across the street to conspire with the mayor Pete and the angry activists at DOT...
DOT has no hard timeline, so they might possibly decide to stall the regulatory process until at least after the election. If they lose the election, they can block it out of spite (or drag it out to Jan), even though they know that it will get just approved anyway after Jan 20th. If they win the election (and thereby get to keep their jobs), they have two obvious strategies to try to block...
1) DOT attempt to block based on whatever bureaucrat reasons they can cook up. This is likely hard to do since they do not have an anti-trust mandate and de-regulation explicitly ties their hands, so they could very well lose in court... OR
2) DOJ could just go back on their word and file a lawsuit, which might succeed based on NK/B6 precedent.
If the plan is option 2), they may *need* mayor Pete to drag it out past the election. If the merger is financially consumated, and integration begins, the courts might be less willing to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Judge could easily find that DOJ should have blocked it when they had the chance (politically expedient timing will not be a legit excuse why they didn't). In the law, the timeliness of a complaint matters.
My operating assumption is that DOJ/DOT are hostile to this merger and will still try to block it, if they can navigate the legal and political landmines. The SCOTUS Loper ruling probably creates a lot of uncertainty in beltway bureaucratic minds... they probably want to be pretty darn sure of themselves before they test the Loper waters, and risk setting even worse precedent for the future exercise of their unelected power.
Disclaimer: The political motive is all hypothetical speculation on my part, with no evidence other than DOJ's odd behavior at the end of the review period, DOT's unusual delay, and management's reserved reaction to the review clock running out. My DC insider buddy is too busy running for election (and losing) to bother with questions like this right now. Maybe I'll get the scoop later this year.
In late spring AS and DOJ agreed to a timeline for merger review:
a) AS would not consumate the merger financially for a period of 90 (IIRC) days.
b) DOJ commits to completing the review within that period, and making a decision (to do nothing as it turned out).
DOJ may have intended to torpedo the deal, but knew they had to go through some official looking motions first or maybe they actually wanted to consider what Island people thought.
Then there was this big debate on TV, all the associated political fallout, and the current regime is on the ropes with an election looming.
DOJ is now committed to a timeline, that runs out before the election, but their political bosses don't want negative economic publicity. DOJ gets ordered to not block, but is given some leash to squeeze for concessions. They cannot stall indefinitely because they already agreed to a timeline. While AS can (and did) agree to mutually extend the timeline it would not be in AS's interest to extend it for long, especially past the election.
That might explain DOJ's passive aggressive behavior of letting the clock run out without any comment.
Now the angry activists at justice scurry across the street to conspire with the mayor Pete and the angry activists at DOT...
DOT has no hard timeline, so they might possibly decide to stall the regulatory process until at least after the election. If they lose the election, they can block it out of spite (or drag it out to Jan), even though they know that it will get just approved anyway after Jan 20th. If they win the election (and thereby get to keep their jobs), they have two obvious strategies to try to block...
1) DOT attempt to block based on whatever bureaucrat reasons they can cook up. This is likely hard to do since they do not have an anti-trust mandate and de-regulation explicitly ties their hands, so they could very well lose in court... OR
2) DOJ could just go back on their word and file a lawsuit, which might succeed based on NK/B6 precedent.
If the plan is option 2), they may *need* mayor Pete to drag it out past the election. If the merger is financially consumated, and integration begins, the courts might be less willing to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Judge could easily find that DOJ should have blocked it when they had the chance (politically expedient timing will not be a legit excuse why they didn't). In the law, the timeliness of a complaint matters.
My operating assumption is that DOJ/DOT are hostile to this merger and will still try to block it, if they can navigate the legal and political landmines. The SCOTUS Loper ruling probably creates a lot of uncertainty in beltway bureaucratic minds... they probably want to be pretty darn sure of themselves before they test the Loper waters, and risk setting even worse precedent for the future exercise of their unelected power.
Disclaimer: The political motive is all hypothetical speculation on my part, with no evidence other than DOJ's odd behavior at the end of the review period, DOT's unusual delay, and management's reserved reaction to the review clock running out. My DC insider buddy is too busy running for election (and losing) to bother with questions like this right now. Maybe I'll get the scoop later this year.
09-09-2024, 10:42 AM
#1713
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 222
If live in an island chain. They have these things called ferry boats. Many communities all over the world successfully use these things to get back-and-forth between the islands. Airlines are in the business of making money. They are not public transportation.
09-09-2024, 02:35 PM
#1714
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,597
09-09-2024, 07:00 PM
#1716
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,891
Negative. That just hurts the airlines that fly to HI. Dunkerley successfully debnked the 'PrIce gOuGinG" complaint that the locals cry about. Based on trip distance, inter island flights are no more expensive than flights of the same distance on the mainland. It's called business.
If live in an island chain. They have these things called ferry boats. Many communities all over the world successfully use these things to get back-and-forth between the islands. Airlines are in the business of making money. They are not public transportation.
If live in an island chain. They have these things called ferry boats. Many communities all over the world successfully use these things to get back-and-forth between the islands. Airlines are in the business of making money. They are not public transportation.
They tried that in the 2000's and called it the superferry, it was well received by tourists and locals not connected to the airlines and rental car companies.
Not well received by the outer islands and the whales apparently, so it was run out of town.
09-10-2024, 06:03 AM
#1717
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2022
Posts: 450
Negative. That just hurts the airlines that fly to HI. Dunkerley successfully debnked the 'PrIce gOuGinG" complaint that the locals cry about. Based on trip distance, inter island flights are no more expensive than flights of the same distance on the mainland. It's called business.
If live in an island chain. They have these things called ferry boats. Many communities all over the world successfully use these things to get back-and-forth between the islands. Airlines are in the business of making money. They are not public transportation.
If live in an island chain. They have these things called ferry boats. Many communities all over the world successfully use these things to get back-and-forth between the islands. Airlines are in the business of making money. They are not public transportation.
As far as price caps and price gauging. There are those that get it, and those that it goes over the head. Now where are those dang stickers we used to stand on?
09-10-2024, 08:56 AM
#1718
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2023
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 66
If this is fundamentally political, here's my suspicions...
In late spring AS and DOJ agreed to a timeline for merger review:
a) AS would not consumate the merger financially for a period of 90 (IIRC) days.
b) DOJ commits to completing the review within that period, and making a decision (to do nothing as it turned out).
DOJ may have intended to torpedo the deal, but knew they had to go through some official looking motions first or maybe they actually wanted to consider what Island people thought.
Then there was this big debate on TV, all the associated political fallout, and the current regime is on the ropes with an election looming.
DOJ is now committed to a timeline, that runs out before the election, but their political bosses don't want negative economic publicity. DOJ gets ordered to not block, but is given some leash to squeeze for concessions. They cannot stall indefinitely because they already agreed to a timeline. While AS can (and did) agree to mutually extend the timeline it would not be in AS's interest to extend it for long, especially past the election.
That might explain DOJ's passive aggressive behavior of letting the clock run out without any comment.
Now the angry activists at justice scurry across the street to conspire with the mayor Pete and the angry activists at DOT...
DOT has no hard timeline, so they might possibly decide to stall the regulatory process until at least after the election. If they lose the election, they can block it out of spite (or drag it out to Jan), even though they know that it will get just approved anyway after Jan 20th. If they win the election (and thereby get to keep their jobs), they have two obvious strategies to try to block...
1) DOT attempt to block based on whatever bureaucrat reasons they can cook up. This is likely hard to do since they do not have an anti-trust mandate and de-regulation explicitly ties their hands, so they could very well lose in court... OR
2) DOJ could just go back on their word and file a lawsuit, which might succeed based on NK/B6 precedent.
If the plan is option 2), they may *need* mayor Pete to drag it out past the election. If the merger is financially consumated, and integration begins, the courts might be less willing to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Judge could easily find that DOJ should have blocked it when they had the chance (politically expedient timing will not be a legit excuse why they didn't). In the law, the timeliness of a complaint matters.
My operating assumption is that DOJ/DOT are hostile to this merger and will still try to block it, if they can navigate the legal and political landmines. The SCOTUS Loper ruling probably creates a lot of uncertainty in beltway bureaucratic minds... they probably want to be pretty darn sure of themselves before they test the Loper waters, and risk setting even worse precedent for the future exercise of their unelected power.
Disclaimer: The political motive is all hypothetical speculation on my part, with no evidence other than DOJ's odd behavior at the end of the review period, DOT's unusual delay, and management's reserved reaction to the review clock running out. My DC insider buddy is too busy running for election (and losing) to bother with questions like this right now. Maybe I'll get the scoop later this year.
In late spring AS and DOJ agreed to a timeline for merger review:
a) AS would not consumate the merger financially for a period of 90 (IIRC) days.
b) DOJ commits to completing the review within that period, and making a decision (to do nothing as it turned out).
DOJ may have intended to torpedo the deal, but knew they had to go through some official looking motions first or maybe they actually wanted to consider what Island people thought.
Then there was this big debate on TV, all the associated political fallout, and the current regime is on the ropes with an election looming.
DOJ is now committed to a timeline, that runs out before the election, but their political bosses don't want negative economic publicity. DOJ gets ordered to not block, but is given some leash to squeeze for concessions. They cannot stall indefinitely because they already agreed to a timeline. While AS can (and did) agree to mutually extend the timeline it would not be in AS's interest to extend it for long, especially past the election.
That might explain DOJ's passive aggressive behavior of letting the clock run out without any comment.
Now the angry activists at justice scurry across the street to conspire with the mayor Pete and the angry activists at DOT...
DOT has no hard timeline, so they might possibly decide to stall the regulatory process until at least after the election. If they lose the election, they can block it out of spite (or drag it out to Jan), even though they know that it will get just approved anyway after Jan 20th. If they win the election (and thereby get to keep their jobs), they have two obvious strategies to try to block...
1) DOT attempt to block based on whatever bureaucrat reasons they can cook up. This is likely hard to do since they do not have an anti-trust mandate and de-regulation explicitly ties their hands, so they could very well lose in court... OR
2) DOJ could just go back on their word and file a lawsuit, which might succeed based on NK/B6 precedent.
If the plan is option 2), they may *need* mayor Pete to drag it out past the election. If the merger is financially consumated, and integration begins, the courts might be less willing to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Judge could easily find that DOJ should have blocked it when they had the chance (politically expedient timing will not be a legit excuse why they didn't). In the law, the timeliness of a complaint matters.
My operating assumption is that DOJ/DOT are hostile to this merger and will still try to block it, if they can navigate the legal and political landmines. The SCOTUS Loper ruling probably creates a lot of uncertainty in beltway bureaucratic minds... they probably want to be pretty darn sure of themselves before they test the Loper waters, and risk setting even worse precedent for the future exercise of their unelected power.
Disclaimer: The political motive is all hypothetical speculation on my part, with no evidence other than DOJ's odd behavior at the end of the review period, DOT's unusual delay, and management's reserved reaction to the review clock running out. My DC insider buddy is too busy running for election (and losing) to bother with questions like this right now. Maybe I'll get the scoop later this year.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
