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Old 08-22-2024, 02:33 AM
  #1501  
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Originally Posted by GreenPatures
All makes sense from a business standpoint. Run 717s to a logical conclusion of life, 321s divest as Max's take their routes, 330s divest over longer period at 787s take those routes. 330 should be around for awhile as 787 deliveries are not quick. HA has / had plans to redo the cabins on the 330s, and have started putting in Starlink (I think 2 or 3 have them now, all 321s have them, hope that Alaska continues that program with their new MAXs). 787 no Starlink but that is bc of Boeing and the STC, HA has been pushing for it. That would leave 787, 737 Max and maybe some shorter range 737s, which streamlines the training department, one of HAs big issues. Also, all this talk about displacement we have to remember the company doesn't have to allow a new type rating displacement just bc a senior pilot wants to fly 787 as those are at great expense to the company to retrain, it is of no expense for base displacements of same type as that is on the pilot to figure out the commute / move. There is a significant company training burden and cost to change types.
I believe 9+ have Starlink as of last week. You can view the completed list in your Content app.
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Old 08-22-2024, 06:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Hawaiian 5O
I don't see why that's not possible. Time to start thinking outside the box. One company, one employee group with two different paint jobs on airplanes. The Hawaii operation would be an absolute killer if it was done properly. Sadly for us, the only thing that could've gotten us out of our "on its deathbed 95-year-old business plan" would be a buy out. Our holding company was not going to change course, and the shareholders surprisingly never demanded a change.

Now add the unrealized potential synergies between the two groups. This could be a win-win for everybody - If done right. I'm one of the older, more senior guys that's been through everything at different airlines since before 9/11. I'm actually cautiously optimistic. This could be good for both groups.

I'm one of the guys that think Hawaiian would've done better without the merger, but I also see the upside to this. If your management is as good as you say it is with making money, this is going to be good for all of us. Before I get dog-piled for saying that, no, we were not anywhere close to a bankruptcy. Honestly, I think the absolute worst case scenario for us "might" have been some concessions but DO NOT see that either unless the economy goes into that 2007 recession scenario. My bet - I think our shareholders FINALLY would have forced a change from the top down at the holding company, which would've rectified everything. Again, I'm surprised the shareholders let it get this far.

Anyway, didn't want to go through another merger in my career but I'm happy to be part of your family if this goes through. I honestly think this will be a win-win if done right.
The drop in tourism, especially on Maui, has been worse than the recession. The only reason spending hasn't shown as great a loss ( it was up month over month, but recently even spending has been down) is because of inflationary prices on everything in Hawaii. The forecast for tourism, especially going forward with a possible economic slowdown, the Japanese traveler, and the amount tourists are willing to spend for below average ameneties, doesn't bode well for an HA recovery. HI is still living off borrowed Covid funds and Maui has been surviving off fire funds. Once all the free money is spent, it won't be good.

Just remember, the Dept. of Labor missed their estimates by almost 30%. 818,000 jobs didn't really exhist. The economy is not as good as CNN would have you believe. Home prices are dropping, credit card dept is at an all time high, the Fed waited too long to drop rates. Then couple that with the anti-tourist rhetoric is HI. We weren't in good shape.

Someone posted pre-pandemic we were at $30/share. Actually pre-pandemic we were as high as $60/share.

With merged groups, I don't see how it's possible we stay two brands past any agreed upon timeframe. Once fences, bases, FA's start being allowed to intermingle (that'll be a joy), flying two brands across the same destination doesn't make sense. Alaska would literally be creating pricing pressure within it's own company.
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Old 08-22-2024, 06:31 AM
  #1503  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Seems fair-ish to me too. But the problem is that there'a going to be some re-alignment of fleets. Probably no base closures, but maybe a new base and existing fleets moving to different bases.

What happens when (not if) people get displaced? Who can they bump? Going to need an SLI for that...
If I were King for a day (or CEO)... KLAS base and something on the East Coast.
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Old 08-22-2024, 06:42 AM
  #1504  
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Originally Posted by TwOtter
I had read something a few months ago that indicated fences would not include those who started after date of intent for the acquisition (12/3/2023). Does anyone have any real knowledge or a document to cite that would indicate if that is correct or if protections would look at date of closing?

More worried about being displaced off a fleet more than anything else.

Thanks.
This is SOP for mergers. I would expect anyone hired after 12/3/2023 to be strict DOH. They knew what they were gettinmg hired into when they took the job.
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Old 08-22-2024, 06:51 AM
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
I'm a post VX merger AS pilot. I noted a lot of language devoted to "red circle captains" on seniority lists and position bids. I didn't pay a lot of attention to it but it was some kind of seat protection for certain pilots who were captains during a seniority list snapshot at each airline. I'm not sure how exactly it protected them. It may have protected their seat and base or just their seat. Hopefully, someone that knows the actual definition can help you. Sorry that no one is chiming in about it with specific knowlege. Likely this merger will be different and the "red circle" tool may or may not be used during the SLI.
Summary, people who hold CA seats on the date of SLI will *probably* have some sort of protection against getting displaced by senior folks, from either list. That would include senior folks from your own list who had simply bypassed upgrade, who would have ben able to displace you otherwise.


Originally Posted by GoodJet
I would also add another voice for a lot of skepticism when it comes to OTZeagles posts. He's been about 20% on predictions around happenings at AS. He also seems to represent the worst of the worst at AS. He gloated over FO's getting furloughed during the pandemic. Which never happened.

Also, just like Jim Cramer. You'll make a pile of money investing in the opposite of OTZ's financial advice, specifically stock calls and puts lol.
x3. I OTZ think hears a lot of rumors in the schoolhouse, some of which has come to pass but a lot of it hasn't. He correctly predicted the HAL merger, after incorrectly predicting several others.

I don't mind hearing what he has to say, since I don't necessarily think he's making it up, but rather keeping us tuned into the schoolhouse rumor mil (schoolhouse is across the strett from HQ).

Also, while the AS management team backed boeing to hilt up to and including the MCAS crisis, I think they have finally reached a point as of early 2024 where they are over that infatuation. I'm not at all sure we'll get rid of the buses, and wouldn't be surprised to learn we had more on order.
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Old 08-22-2024, 07:10 AM
  #1506  
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Originally Posted by Wingnutt
I believe the two entities will be merged into the AS brand after 3 years, tops. Once the Islands are inundated with the Alaska brand and conditioned to seeing Alaska everywhere, those folks working for Alaska that were previously Hawaiian after the acquisition will accept Alaska as the employer etc., as will the flying public. Hawaiian / Alaska culture aside, consumers want value and consistency in the product. It’s in the best interest of AS to eventually glean the synergies of one brand eventually from this acquisition.
Naw, this has been discussed by Alaskans ever since VX.

Alaska brand is fine for Alaska, PNW, and some CA markets since it has penetration there. AS mostly transports west coast people across their route structure... they generally don't bring New Yorkers to SEA. The brand, as you say, could also be developed in the Islands.

But it will never be useful for the foriegn vacation traveller to HI market... that's one of the big reasons they kept the HAL brand.

Long term, they either have to keep the HAL brand for foriegn markets, or switch the whole company to a new brand... a variety of which have been proposed here and I'd imagine that somebody here has already guessed what it will be.

But they *really* do love the AS brand, so I'd say maybe 50/50 that they just keep the dual brand model. They had a perfectly viable and internationally recognized brand when they acquired VX, and are in fact still paying for it. That would have been the time to rebrand if they were going to.
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Old 08-22-2024, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by CATIII
If I were King for a day (or CEO)... KLAS base and something on the East Coast.
I think there's potential recruiting/retention benefit to a domicile in a red or low-tax state. But odds are that a new base will be SAN, it's already a focus city and plenty of pilots live there orr want to love there, regardless of taxes and politics.
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Old 08-22-2024, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
I think there's potential recruiting/retention benefit to a domicile in a red or low-tax state. But odds are that a new base will be SAN, it's already a focus city and plenty of pilots live there orr want to love there, regardless of taxes and politics.
Yeah, United figured this out, plus LAS is a very under capacity airport.. and a great launching pad for possible interenational routes, not sure if SAN is any of those.. but I'm thinking of a future of this combined airline that will take on UAL/DAL/AA, not one focued on Southwest as their primary competition.
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Old 08-22-2024, 08:11 AM
  #1509  
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Originally Posted by CATIII
Yeah, United figured this out, plus LAS is a very under capacity airport.. and a great launching pad for possible interenational routes, not sure if SAN is any of those.. but I'm thinking of a future of this combined airline that will take on UAL/DAL/AA, not one focued on Southwest as their primary competition.
Just took a MAX 9 out of there a couple of days ago. It was 43C. Our performance wasn't valid for the temperature. Had to call up dispatch and get performance since the ACARS couldn't find a solution. We had to do a bleeds of takeoff with flaps 1. This was with 16.6K on fuel. V2 was 172.

I don't know enough about the types of aircraft that airlines operate but this doesn't seem like a good option for an all 737 airline, at least on the mainland.
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Old 08-22-2024, 09:16 AM
  #1510  
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Originally Posted by GreenPatures
CVG has no plans bc it is either no change or going away. That whole business is driven by Amazon, including new routes, etc. Hawaiian has no input and gets a certain heads up in time for new routes. They just got ETOPS approved and are starting HNL flights, right now I think it is CVG, SBD, JFK, and HNL, HA thinks it will expand to other areas but Amazon makes those decisions in their own and then gives HA a heads up and HA then adjusts to support, very different than probably how ALK freight works, and definitely than both our pax flying. On edit, the first ones have no crew rest area so they are limited on flight time based on this, so I don't expect China or any super long routes for a long time, if at all. They typically fly 5 to 6 day trips, there are many redeyes on the trips.
Yes, but only half of the 330-300Fs will have center tanks so most will continue doing domentic flying. -300s tyically dont have center tanks. Rumor is to Europe or South America versus China. China would need a stop in ANC unless the payoad is light enough to go direct.
PDX was announced by Amazon to start October.
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