word302

Dude just stop. None of what any of us say matters. Just ride the wave and quit building animosity.

rickair7777

AS is profitable, and can service debt indefinitely.

MinRest

I am not trying to build animosity, I am trying to defend the argument made by others. I am legit excited for the future and to merge pilot groups.

rickair7777

Not unreasonable.

By 3 to 1 I assume you mean lists zippered?

PineappleXpres

Is there a precedent for Captains only fences?

GreenPatures

Look at the balance sheets from last quarter. ALK has $3.8b total debt and $1.6b debt net of assets. HA is $2.6b total debt and $1.6b net of assets, but who needs facts on APC, haha. Not saying HA is doing well, it is losing money and struggling to get back to the pre-COVID area profitability. Its revenue was massively over exposed to 2 areas that went full lockdown in COVID, Hawaii, and Asia. And HA is over exposed to the impact of the devaluation of the Yen. It is not diversified as well as ALK, way more over sensitive to vacation spending, freight was an attempt to diversify into a market that is less dependent on vacation spending. I see a number of folks posting their knowledge of the imminency of HA's bankruptcy but based on lack of financial facts is interesting. And zero of this weighs into anything that will affect the JCBA or SLI, how would it? A dollar debt per pilot applied by company to then water down their vote by who has the most debt per pilot? Or will ALPA say with their financial crystal ball that an HA pilot came to HA with the career expectation of bankruptcy and ALPA knows for sure that bankruptcy would be declared and therefore their other career expectations don't matter bc they have no career expectations after bankruptcy? Even if, and I am not saying it would have happened, HA went into bankruptcy if the merger did not go through does not mean it goes away, it did go into bankruptcy before and turned around to a profitable company, it somehow has survived for 95 years. Not sure why this became a discussion on financial performance, those usually go in the stock blogs, but at least let us get the numbers accurate. For points of reference, UAL has total debt of $34B and net debt of $23b, DAL is $24b and $14b total/net debt, so what? Throwing out total debt numbers is meaningless out of context, ALK has more total debt than HA, so what does that mean? Let's look at book value, this is where ALK shines, DALs tangible Book Value is MINUS 3.4b, HA is MINUS $119m, and ALK is PLUS $2.1b, more useful numbers, but by that measure HA is doing better than DAL and would anyone call DAL a failing airline. One thing I learned flying, never take financial advice from a pilot, haha. Really ALK is buying into WB and international flying, and saying that BM is a smart business man and prints money then saying this is a bad deal is really saying he is not a good businessman. I think he is smart and knew what he was doing.

rickair7777

I think so. The idea being that WB FOs can bid NB CA and make more.

I don't think they try to account for schedules or QOL in SLI, just the $. Otherwise too many variables.

MinRest

Yes, it isn't so much a fence as it is, CAs not being displaced by SLI for 3 years basically. Boiler plate stuff and was the same at VX.

CATIII

Fellas... if HA was making the kind of money it was pre-covid, the Japanese yen strong and earnings strong, the price to buy would have been a heck of a lot more than $18/share and this deal would never have happened... The financial situation at HA was a gift for AS, and it's pilots have nothing but upside as a result.

GreenPatures

. That is more meaningful than people just throwing out incorrect debt numbers by itself with zero context. All the airlines have a lot of debt. An even more meaningful comment than just rough (and incorrect) debt numbers is profit ....HA has negative cash flow, and if nothing changes (a poor assumption that nothing will change) at the current rate, they can only continue for 5-10 more years (someone can figure this out, I don't really care to because it is meaningless as things do change) before they become insolvent and have to declare bankruptcy. The last debt refinance was said to be able to cover 5-7 years I believe at the current rate. They think they will start making money with Amazon in a few more jets, etc. etc. and other changes they are adjusting slowly reducing Japan market shifting flights to mainland while watching the Yen, HA is way over exposed to the devalued Yen, ALK does not have this issue, this is a state of Hawaii tourism issue as well. Diversifies both companies and strengthens them competitvely against the big 4, so either BM is a good businessman and knows what he is doing, or he is not good and is hurting the company. He clearly sees value in the deal, and some folks here in the cheap seats seem to think he is wrong. I think he knkows what he is doing, hence the profitability of ALK, which is saying he thinks, and I agree, that this is good for ALK, and that matters not at all, it is happening regardless of what any of us think.