Alaska buying Hawaiian airlines.
08-20-2024, 10:47 PM
#1411
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 694
Here are some insights from the last merger from the point of view of a VX guy:
The process is incrediincredibly slow. Today, with DOJ approval, we passed the first major milestone. Next is SLI, then JCBA, then unified ops, and at the very end, we finally get to cross bid. By the time this is over, you won't care to read any updates. It'll all seem boring AF.
The AS VX merger was approved in early 2016. It took three years (july 2019) before pilots could bid the other company's equipment and seven years for Alaska to completely swallow Virgin (got rid of the last Airbus in fall of 2023).
Working that math forward from today we can predict that the earliest pilots from this merger could switch into each others bases and bid new equipment is fall of 2027 and the fleet rationalization won't be fully complete until the fall of 2031. If you had a baby this summer, she'll be in second grade by the time the dust from this merger settles.
We might see SLI by mid‐winter and JCBA by next fall (not a prediction, just a guess to make a point). The JCBA will likely be rolled in over time, maybe years, and the SLI won't matter for a few years because we won't be cross bidding till 2027.
For most of us, we won't feel the effects of this merger until the next president is at the end of her term. Between now and then there will likely be massive world events, economic changes, etc. The point being: this takes a long time. The stuff wweworry about on these forums won't matter as much as you think. People will drop off of the seniority list, plans will change, management will change, the cities we serve will go through changes.
When the VX AS merger happened, I was at 27٪ on the VX seniority list. SLI dropped me to 31٪ on the combined list. Now, eight years downrange, I'm around 16٪. It was all slow‐moving change, nothing that rapidly jolted our family or income. Other than suffering through five years of line bidding (which got fixed in May) it's all been an upward trajectory.
The process is incrediincredibly slow. Today, with DOJ approval, we passed the first major milestone. Next is SLI, then JCBA, then unified ops, and at the very end, we finally get to cross bid. By the time this is over, you won't care to read any updates. It'll all seem boring AF.
The AS VX merger was approved in early 2016. It took three years (july 2019) before pilots could bid the other company's equipment and seven years for Alaska to completely swallow Virgin (got rid of the last Airbus in fall of 2023).
Working that math forward from today we can predict that the earliest pilots from this merger could switch into each others bases and bid new equipment is fall of 2027 and the fleet rationalization won't be fully complete until the fall of 2031. If you had a baby this summer, she'll be in second grade by the time the dust from this merger settles.
We might see SLI by mid‐winter and JCBA by next fall (not a prediction, just a guess to make a point). The JCBA will likely be rolled in over time, maybe years, and the SLI won't matter for a few years because we won't be cross bidding till 2027.
For most of us, we won't feel the effects of this merger until the next president is at the end of her term. Between now and then there will likely be massive world events, economic changes, etc. The point being: this takes a long time. The stuff wweworry about on these forums won't matter as much as you think. People will drop off of the seniority list, plans will change, management will change, the cities we serve will go through changes.
When the VX AS merger happened, I was at 27٪ on the VX seniority list. SLI dropped me to 31٪ on the combined list. Now, eight years downrange, I'm around 16٪. It was all slow‐moving change, nothing that rapidly jolted our family or income. Other than suffering through five years of line bidding (which got fixed in May) it's all been an upward trajectory.
08-20-2024, 11:44 PM
#1415
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Posts: 162
Is he wrong though? Wall Street seems to agree with him. When ever it looked the like merger was going through HA's stock went up and AS went down and when it looked like it wasn't going to happen HA's stock tanked and AS's stock went up.
08-21-2024, 12:02 AM
#1416
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 196
Our recent financial performance has not been good thanks to our current CEO. Surprised he wasn’t replaced sooner by the BOD.
Alaska got a smoking deal on a turn key widebody operator today, instead of waiting 6-10 years to get a similar number of widebody aircraft delivered (assuming Boeing can even manage that).
So yeah, he is a wrong. I won’t throw stones, as ABX used to be a very respectable carrier 20+ years ago, but it’s aviation and things change.
08-21-2024, 06:28 AM
#1419
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 377
No. Its not one of the 3 ALPA merger considerations. Career expectations is access to widebody flying in the case of your merger. AS pilots "career expectations" is to fly 737s. Sorry but this is one reason SLIs make everyone upset. The policy is the driving factor, not ancillary issues.
08-21-2024, 07:00 AM
#1420
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2022
Posts: 472
If this didn't go through, P.I. goes off to spend time w/family, HA Holdings brings in a hatchet man to cut all costs, all hell breaks loose, we most likely furlough and take it in the shorts with our shiny new contract (that pays $50k less than Delta). Anyone that isn't keen on this fact hasn't been through enough downturns, or CEO's. The number of CEO's I've been through is in the double digits, and like many I'm a pre-9/11 guy. There is a typical playbook that is followed. It never ends well for the pilots.
Queston for the HA pilots that think nothing changes w/our widebodies or routes in HNL.
Japan? Just keep sending 330's on losing routes? Updated (and always off the mark) Hawaii predictors say 2026-2027 for any significant return of Japanese consumers.
Overlapping routes? Does Alaska run a 330 SEA-HNL/OGG as well as a couple 737's? Or are those widebodies better utilized on other routes?
I don't see how it's possible things remain status quo for long.
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