TA is here
#311
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 910
And if the economy is just fine? Then what?
#312
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,004
From an outsider point of view, I think your NC/MEC deserves some credit. They had nothing to pattern bargain from. You guys literally lead the charge on major improvements during this round of Section 6 negotiations. I think there’s something to be said for that. I don’t know the details, but from what I see, it’s a big step in the right direction. Much better than what the United MEC just tried to jam through. Anyway, I hope you guys get the best deal possible. Good luck
#313
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 685
#314
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 685
And there in lies the rub. There is nothing about our NC, MEC, LEC’s, given their history of the last three years that leads me to believe that they haven’t in the past, nor would they not in the future, (as in now) suit up themselves and jump back in if they thought the juice was worth the squeeze.
I absolutely 💯 respect someone’s no. I’m not even making a decision myself till I’ve done my due diligence. But, if someone thinks that the opinion of someone on APC (Alaska pilot or another carrier pilot) is gonna be where I find my decision, you’d be dead wrong.
I absolutely 💯 respect someone’s no. I’m not even making a decision myself till I’ve done my due diligence. But, if someone thinks that the opinion of someone on APC (Alaska pilot or another carrier pilot) is gonna be where I find my decision, you’d be dead wrong.
If you listen to the union podcast however, they believe that they delivered on the consistently expressed consensus that the negotiating prioritiy was to get us out of the QOL hell hole we're currently in. I suspect that most will agree that they certainly knocked it out of the park in that regard.
#315
If you listen to the union podcast, they believe that they delivered on the consistently expressed consensus that the negotiating prioritiy was to get us out of the QOL hell hole we're currently in. I suspect that most will agree that they certainly knocked it out of the park in that regard.
<filler>
#316
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 685
Here's the thing. Ever since the latest election, let's say there's been a certain segment of the American public that has been predicting the collapse of the economy. The reasons for it have evolved over time, like any failing fortune teller would do. So, it would be a travesty that enough pilots got spooked by these charlatans that we would leave millions of dollars and more time off on the table. All in preparation for a politically-charged collapse that was never going to happen.
I'm not a finance guy, but didn't most of us do Micro and Macro-economics courses in college? Step back a little, forget politics, and use your knowledge and intelligence.
Without charlatans having to tell us, we already know that the economy naturally goes through boom and bust cycles every ten years or so, and that the airline industry, being capital intensive, with thin margins, etc, tend to be affected in an outsized way during the bust periods.
The next economic bust has been long delayed by all the money that has been pumped into our economy by succesive governments (ON BOTH SIDES) since 2008, to forestall the unpalatable economic hardships that they would have been blamed for, had it occurred on their watch. Don't forget, too the corporate tax breaks that allowed companies to record super profits. These two factors have been greatly responsible for boosting the stockmarket to meteoric heights.
Unfortunately however, you'll always have to pay the piper, and those bills are long overdue.
So again, Do you feel lucky?
Btw:
I AM NOT CRITIQUING THE POLITICS OF THE ACTIONS, I'm simply talking about the predictable economic effects of the actions, to explain why the shid MUST hit the fan at some point. You can delay it, but you can't avoid it.
Last edited by All Bizniz; 09-25-2022 at 10:02 PM.
#317
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 910
Cmon prdu. I know you know better. haha
I'm not a finance guy, but didn't most of us do Micro and Macro-economics courses in college? Step back a little, forget politics, and use your knowledge and intelligence.
Without charlatans having to tell us, we already know that the economy naturally goes through boom and bust cycles every ten years or so, and that the airline industry, being capital intensive, with thin margins, etc, tend to be affected in an outsized way during the bust periods.
The next economic bust has been long delayed by all the money that has been pumped into our economy by succesive governments (ON BOTH SIDES) since 2008, to forestall the unpalatable economic hardships that they would have been blamed for, had it occurred on their watch. Don't forget, too the corporate tax breaks that allowed companies to record super profits. These two factors have been greatly responsible for boosting the stockmarket to meteoric heights.
Unfortunately however, you'll always have to pay the piper, and those bills are long overdue.
So again, Do you feel lucky?
Btw:
I AM NOT CRITIQUING THE POLITICS OF THE ACTIONS, I'm simply talking about the predictable economic effects of the actions, to explain why the shid MUST hit the fan at some point. You can delay it, but you can't avoid it.
I'm not a finance guy, but didn't most of us do Micro and Macro-economics courses in college? Step back a little, forget politics, and use your knowledge and intelligence.
Without charlatans having to tell us, we already know that the economy naturally goes through boom and bust cycles every ten years or so, and that the airline industry, being capital intensive, with thin margins, etc, tend to be affected in an outsized way during the bust periods.
The next economic bust has been long delayed by all the money that has been pumped into our economy by succesive governments (ON BOTH SIDES) since 2008, to forestall the unpalatable economic hardships that they would have been blamed for, had it occurred on their watch. Don't forget, too the corporate tax breaks that allowed companies to record super profits. These two factors have been greatly responsible for boosting the stockmarket to meteoric heights.
Unfortunately however, you'll always have to pay the piper, and those bills are long overdue.
So again, Do you feel lucky?
Btw:
I AM NOT CRITIQUING THE POLITICS OF THE ACTIONS, I'm simply talking about the predictable economic effects of the actions, to explain why the shid MUST hit the fan at some point. You can delay it, but you can't avoid it.
Also, the pilot shortage does not stop in a recession. So short of a music-stopping catastrophe, like the 2008 credit freeze or another border-closing global pandemic, air travel demand should remain within norms. And if it's anywhere close to normal, then the Big 3 will need to find 35,000 pilots in the next 5 years just to stay at current levels.
Barring a complete disaster, I predict the pilot leverage forecast to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
In conclusion, do not vote based on what you think the economy is going to do next year. You are probably wrong. Vote for or against the TA on its merits alone. If you love it, ratify it. If you hate it, send it back. The demand for pilots will remain largely unchanged for the next half decade. Do not let externalities affect your decision making.
Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.
#318
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2021
Posts: 98
The Fed has been printing and handing out money since covid like never before in history, at some point you have to pay the piper.
Riding that correction out on this current contract would be a mistake in my opinion. I’d much rather do it with this T/A’s scope, work rules, and pay…
Riding that correction out on this current contract would be a mistake in my opinion. I’d much rather do it with this T/A’s scope, work rules, and pay…
#319
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 685
I deleted the post because I knew it was kicking the political hornets' nest. That said, I will admit we are overdue for a correction of some kind. Will it be a 2008 Lehman Brothers-esque collapse? In my opinion, doubtful. The US is weathering the inflation storm much better than the rest of the planet, as indicated by the strength of the dollar. Any sort of economic slowdown will be cushioned by *relatively* affordable goods and services from overseas.
Also, the pilot shortage does not stop in a recession. So short of a music-stopping catastrophe, like the 2008 credit freeze or another border-closing global pandemic, air travel demand should remain within norms. And if it's anywhere close to normal, then the Big 3 will need to find 35,000 pilots in the next 5 years just to stay at current levels.
Barring a complete disaster, I predict the pilot leverage forecast to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
In conclusion, do not vote based on what you think the economy is going to do next year. You are probably wrong. Vote for or against the TA on its merits alone. If you love it, ratify it. If you hate it, send it back. The demand for pilots will remain largely unchanged for the next half decade. Do not let externalities affect your decision making.
Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.
Also, the pilot shortage does not stop in a recession. So short of a music-stopping catastrophe, like the 2008 credit freeze or another border-closing global pandemic, air travel demand should remain within norms. And if it's anywhere close to normal, then the Big 3 will need to find 35,000 pilots in the next 5 years just to stay at current levels.
Barring a complete disaster, I predict the pilot leverage forecast to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
In conclusion, do not vote based on what you think the economy is going to do next year. You are probably wrong. Vote for or against the TA on its merits alone. If you love it, ratify it. If you hate it, send it back. The demand for pilots will remain largely unchanged for the next half decade. Do not let externalities affect your decision making.
Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.
Last edited by All Bizniz; 09-26-2022 at 03:49 AM.