flyprdu

And if the economy is just fine? Then what?

Roy Biggins

From an outsider point of view, I think your NC/MEC deserves some credit. They had nothing to pattern bargain from. You guys literally lead the charge on major improvements during this round of Section 6 negotiations. I think there’s something to be said for that. I don’t know the details, but from what I see, it’s a big step in the right direction. Much better than what the United MEC just tried to jam through. Anyway, I hope you guys get the best deal possible. Good luck

All Bizniz

You'd still be in a MUCH better position under the new contract, than you would under the old.

That's the thing. We don't know how the future is gonna break. The question is, "Do You Feel Lucky?"

All Bizniz

And therein lies the rub. Do they really believe the juice is worth the squeeze from this point, on? It's certainly a question worth asking them.

If you listen to the union podcast however, they believe that they delivered on the consistently expressed consensus that the negotiating prioritiy was to get us out of the QOL hell hole we're currently in. I suspect that most will agree that they certainly knocked it out of the park in that regard.

av8or

Agreed 💯
​​​​​​
<filler>

All Bizniz

Cmon prdu. I know you know better. haha

I'm not a finance guy, but didn't most of us do Micro and Macro-economics courses in college? Step back a little, forget politics, and use your knowledge and intelligence.

Without charlatans having to tell us, we already know that the economy naturally goes through boom and bust cycles every ten years or so, and that the airline industry, being capital intensive, with thin margins, etc, tend to be affected in an outsized way during the bust periods.

The next economic bust has been long delayed by all the money that has been pumped into our economy by succesive governments (ON BOTH SIDES) since 2008, to forestall the unpalatable economic hardships that they would have been blamed for, had it occurred on their watch. Don't forget, too the corporate tax breaks that allowed companies to record super profits. These two factors have been greatly responsible for boosting the stockmarket to meteoric heights.

Unfortunately however, you'll always have to pay the piper, and those bills are long overdue.

So again, Do you feel lucky?

Btw:
I AM NOT CRITIQUING THE POLITICS OF THE ACTIONS, I'm simply talking about the predictable economic effects of the actions, to explain why the shid MUST hit the fan at some point. You can delay it, but you can't avoid it.

flyprdu

I deleted the post because I knew it was kicking the political hornets' nest. That said, I will admit we are overdue for a correction of some kind. Will it be a 2008 Lehman Brothers-esque collapse? In my opinion, doubtful. The US is weathering the inflation storm much better than the rest of the planet, as indicated by the strength of the dollar. Any sort of economic slowdown will be cushioned by *relatively* affordable goods and services from overseas.

Also, the pilot shortage does not stop in a recession. So short of a music-stopping catastrophe, like the 2008 credit freeze or another border-closing global pandemic, air travel demand should remain within norms. And if it's anywhere close to normal, then the Big 3 will need to find 35,000 pilots in the next 5 years just to stay at current levels.

Barring a complete disaster, I predict the pilot leverage forecast to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.


In conclusion, do not vote based on what you think the economy is going to do next year. You are probably wrong. Vote for or against the TA on its merits alone. If you love it, ratify it. If you hate it, send it back. The demand for pilots will remain largely unchanged for the next half decade. Do not let externalities affect your decision making.

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.

ChickenFinger

The Fed has been printing and handing out money since covid like never before in history, at some point you have to pay the piper.

Riding that correction out on this current contract would be a mistake in my opinion. I’d much rather do it with this T/A’s scope, work rules, and pay…

All Bizniz

I think one should take ALL factors into consideration, giving weight to each as necessary, but I hear you.

Minepza

Pilots never learn not to take the first offer. Look at Mesa, they actually rejected it and got a way better offer within days.