Alaska General Discussion
07-25-2023, 07:35 PM
#701
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 690
Economies of scale play a major role in viability and the sustainability of costs. Scale alone creates synergies and the vastness of the network and mileage plan allows for a significant number of points for those cost pressures to be alleviated and consumed.
Going forward in the current market though, I don’t see Alaska being able keep cost discipline with its pilots as the current market will not allow it. They will have to pay market rates to attract and keep this workgroup.
Going forward in the current market though, I don’t see Alaska being able keep cost discipline with its pilots as the current market will not allow it. They will have to pay market rates to attract and keep this workgroup.
07-25-2023, 08:27 PM
#702
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,915
Attrition again?
In my 12 yrs, I’m at 37%. Go count retirement # at AS for the next 10 yrs. What do you think a newhire would be at in the next 10 yrs?
Another question, why would anyone with a 30-45+ career want to come and limit themselves to 5 west coast bases and the 737MAX the rest of their lives?
Let’s not pretend Delta wage or even Delta + 1% is going to stem attrition. Those who want more than 5 bases, 737s, and slow retirements are going to leave regardless. The honest reality is, the angry vocal APC crowd are the ones who are too senior to leave, don’t have resumes out to anyone, and hate the Eskimo tail. They want Delta +1 for themselves, as their career consolation prize. NOT because they want AS to be prosperous and stem attrition.
In my 12 yrs, I’m at 37%. Go count retirement # at AS for the next 10 yrs. What do you think a newhire would be at in the next 10 yrs?
Another question, why would anyone with a 30-45+ career want to come and limit themselves to 5 west coast bases and the 737MAX the rest of their lives?
Let’s not pretend Delta wage or even Delta + 1% is going to stem attrition. Those who want more than 5 bases, 737s, and slow retirements are going to leave regardless. The honest reality is, the angry vocal APC crowd are the ones who are too senior to leave, don’t have resumes out to anyone, and hate the Eskimo tail. They want Delta +1 for themselves, as their career consolation prize. NOT because they want AS to be prosperous and stem attrition.
07-25-2023, 08:30 PM
#703
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 699
We have no idea what the money threshold is to curb attrition. We don't know because it's never been tried at Alaska. What we do know that -10% is not working very well. -13% next year will work even worse.
07-25-2023, 08:39 PM
#704
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,915
Pure speculation on your part. And we know that your predictive powers are just awful.
We have no idea what the money threshold is to curb attrition. We don't know because it's never been tried at Alaska. What we do know that -10% is not working very well. -13% next year will work even worse.
We have no idea what the money threshold is to curb attrition. We don't know because it's never been tried at Alaska. What we do know that -10% is not working very well. -13% next year will work even worse.
Say you’re a 25 yr old newhire at AS, about #3450 on the list, living in LA. Why would you stay?
Pay isn’t going to stop a guy who wants something more than 5 west coast only bases, 737s, and slow retirements the rest of his career.
07-25-2023, 08:45 PM
#705
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 699
It's never as clear cut as that. Say you like Alaska, but you're on the fence about going. People can be convinced to stay. As of right now, there is very little convincing happening.
07-25-2023, 08:57 PM
#706
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,915
Well, how about a litmus test? If attrition is truly an issue they are concerned about, what do you think will happen:
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
07-25-2023, 09:49 PM
#707
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 699
Well, how about a litmus test? If attrition is truly an issue they are concerned about, what do you think will happen:
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
If I had to make a guess, it'll be a middle ground. Because it will be a gracious extra contract gift, management can do whatever they want. It will be something like $330. A middle ground. We'll match Jetblue, but we won't catch the big 3 at $360. That way ALPA can save face, the company can still get their discount, and everyone is grateful that the company bailed the pilots out from themselves.
That's my prediction.
07-26-2023, 08:28 AM
#708
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: Cessna 205
Posts: 253
Well, how about a litmus test? If attrition is truly an issue they are concerned about, what do you think will happen:
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
$318 on Sept 1 and staying that way for 12 months.
or
Mgt approaches the union after Sept 1, they take the new big 5 wages and divide it by 5, tell the union this is the new average, make that 12 yr rate, and slope it accordingly.
Which scenario do you see playing out?
07-26-2023, 09:22 AM
#709
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Position: Captain
Posts: 326
I think we get a new contract late 2025 early 26
if not recruiting is gonna be a reaaaalll problem
07-26-2023, 09:28 AM
#710
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,915
Fair enough. I’d say I’d agree on that 50/50, it could go either way.
Wild card is age 67 if that passes, that could slow things a couple of years. That will take us to the second half of this decade where the retirements start mellowing out industry wide.
Wild card is age 67 if that passes, that could slow things a couple of years. That will take us to the second half of this decade where the retirements start mellowing out industry wide.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
