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Old 06-27-2024, 12:21 PM
  #1771  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
I’m not trying to be rude but do not understand the correlation. So, of that 1,200 at Delta, how many have already been hired? So, UAL opened the application window, that means they could hire 2,500 or Zero right? Are they both going through a merger? Have they both just introduced PBS, why does that mean, we will or will not do anything?
American is at peak retirements this year and next and just cut off all hiring
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Old 06-27-2024, 12:39 PM
  #1772  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
I’m not trying to be rude but do not understand the correlation. So, of that 1,200 at Delta, how many have already been hired? So, UAL opened the application window, that means they could hire 2,500 or Zero right? Are they both going through a merger? Have they both just introduced PBS, why does that mean, we will or will not do anything?
Unlike Alaska which has ~100 or so retirees a year, even exclusive of planned growth United, Delta, and American will in total need to hire 1600-1800 pilots a year just to offset age 65 attrition. So yeah, they are halfway through the year and have probably hired a little over half of that number and may have CJOs swimming in the pool for much of the rest of this year, but now that age 67 is out - at least for the immediate future - the demand at all three marches on...
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Old 06-27-2024, 01:37 PM
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No prob, we are about to "hire" 1176 pilots and their associated unprofitable route structure with a bonus finger of 4 types of 65 airplanes. Half of that flying will be gone, I mean "integrated" (synergized?), in 5 years. Seems clear we are running a surplus of pilots for the forseeable future. The supply/demand curve has inverted. Get used to it.
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Old 06-27-2024, 03:06 PM
  #1774  
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American isn't shrinking lol. Their retirements alone are going to dictate picking up hiring before the end of the year big time.

Everyone hired for attrition, and attrition stopped so everyone is temporarily fat. That combined with Boeing deliveries is creating a freeze. Yea it sucks but we will get through it. The shortage is over, it was fixed, and the massive hiring flood isn't going to happen like it did post COVID anytime soon. That being said, hiring will resume at some point for everyone.
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Old 06-27-2024, 03:20 PM
  #1775  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Unlike Alaska which has ~100 or so retirees a year, even exclusive of planned growth United, Delta, and American will in total need to hire 1600-1800 pilots a year just to offset age 65 attrition. So yeah, they are halfway through the year and have probably hired a little over half of that number and may have CJOs swimming in the pool for much of the rest of this year, but now that age 67 is out - at least for the immediate future - the demand at all three marches on...
Alaska does not have anything even approaching 100 retirements per year. There were 29 last year and there will be around 40 this year. 20-40 is pretty much the norm going forward.
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Old 06-27-2024, 03:44 PM
  #1776  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
No prob, we are about to "hire" 1176 pilots and their associated unprofitable route structure with a bonus finger of 4 types of 65 airplanes. Half of that flying will be gone, I mean "integrated" (synergized?), in 5 years. Seems clear we are running a surplus of pilots for the forseeable future. The supply/demand curve has inverted. Get used to it.
Our domestic and inter island flights are full. So hopefully Alaska can right the ship. International is cyclical.

Originally Posted by flysnoopy76
Alaska does not have anything even approaching 100 retirements per year. There were 29 last year and there will be around 40 this year. 20-40 is pretty much the norm going forward.
Natural Attrition is 30-40 for the next few years. Then 20 or less following that.

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Old 06-27-2024, 03:44 PM
  #1777  
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December ALPA list.....

2024: 29
2025: 49
2026: 57
2027: 78
2028: 70
2029: 104
2030: 90
2031: 101
2032: 112
2033: 114
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Old 06-27-2024, 08:50 PM
  #1778  
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Originally Posted by MinRest
American isn't shrinking lol. Their retirements alone are going to dictate picking up hiring before the end of the year big time.

Everyone hired for attrition, and attrition stopped so everyone is temporarily fat. That combined with Boeing deliveries is creating a freeze. Yea it sucks but we will get through it. The shortage is over, it was fixed, and the massive hiring flood isn't going to happen like it did post COVID anytime soon. That being said, hiring will resume at some point for everyone.
Really this is embarrassing, AAL could very well shrink, they are not hiring but retiring. If they wanted to continue growing they would hire even during slow times, which would alleviate the significant pressure periods of substantial retirements produce. One can logically conclude AAL is actually deciding to retract instead of grow during this period. They obviously see something that causes pause. Neither you or I know if hiring will pick up latter in the year, that is to be determined. You realize airlines don’t always grow right?

Uhm wow, very profound…at some point airlines will hire again… really. Yes, and at some point airlines will likely furlough again. I mean this is very deep thought. Let’s give this a minute and let it all sink in…😉😱😂

Last edited by OTZeagle1; 06-27-2024 at 09:19 PM.
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Old 06-27-2024, 08:56 PM
  #1779  
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Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed
American is at peak retirements this year and next and just cut off all hiring
This should be eye opening for anyone with a brain

Last edited by OTZeagle1; 06-27-2024 at 09:20 PM.
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Old 06-27-2024, 09:41 PM
  #1780  
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Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
Our domestic and inter island flights are full.
Dont fall for that, just because flights are full doesnt mean they are making money.
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