GoodJet

Just watch he will claim an entirely different trading strategy and call you stupid. Then start bragging about his money and how you're either a POS former VX guy or about to get furloughed.

OTZeagle1

Laugh it up. My ALK short is not a large position. Took out a little bigger short on UAL this morning. I hold about 100,000 in puts on the three airlines. They are worth about 100,000 as of today. Check back when Oil hits $110. Maybe tomorrow maybe never… I might lose all the money, I might make 100k. Whatever
I think you are all about to get another lesson on how smart I actually am. Maybe no🤷‍♂️… maybe I’m just lucky 🍀

GoodJet

The guy that panic sold BTC at 43K during the "sell the news" hype could only convince me what an idiot he is.

OTZeagle1

Yes, I wish I held BTC to 73k… I didn’t, way too much risk for me. I went 4x on my BTC. I’ve never felt the market was more over bought in my life though, I felt like the sky was about to fall. I ran, I honestly did kind of panic sell. That’s a lot of money, when you get there, tell me it’s easy.
You do know what Israel is doing right now though… 😱😱😱

GoodJet

Yep. Don't care either.

Carebear

You have two post functions:
Talk [bad word] about OTZ or talk [bad word] about Alaska management. You go down such ridiculous tangents every other post.
I told you lovers to bet via BTC before, but like a new FO at indoc, you were too shy to put up anything to bet. When are your expiries and strikes for these “100k puts?” Either IV crush will get you, or you’re a sadist who loves getting your nuts crushed by the 4-5 guys who get you off here.
You can’t even make up bs of “oh I got out of those” because your puts lost value within the past month, especially with the jump in airlines the past few days, so you’re deep in the red now.

GoodJet

Rediculous tangents? Like there won't be open time when PBS is implemented? Or we don't work for a company that has experience to operate real international flights? You're quoting me saying that OTZ is full of it and won't own up to getting hammered shorting the market without understanding how it works, yet he will just lie and claim he's out of his trades. Then you go on to say the exact same thing to OTZ. Sorry if your hopes were up about merging with Hawaiian and Jet Blue in a reasonable time frame, or at all. Perhaps get through the first merger? Or at least DOJ approval? The reality sinking in that you won't have the opportunities your peeers do at a real major is a bummer, a real major wouldn't hire me either. If it makes you uncomfortable or emotional that's too bad. I'd worry about more important things: like unstacking during a holiday month and when peak flying is due to occur per the latest ALK earnings call. Pro tip: July.

FL410

After catching up on the posts from earlier, there is much greater negitive sediments about the merger that I am expiriencing on the line. Here is my .02. I am 100% for the merger and hope it goes through. Will there be pain points? Yes of course, there always is. But with 20+ years left (unless I can convince OTZ to be my financial planner) and the conservative/methodical approach that this management team has I think it will benifit us. Will seniority take a hit? Yes. Will there be fences? Yes. Is the Amazon contract risky? Yes. AS hasn't been having the high returns from throwing darts at a board, they have a plan and if plan A doesn't work then to plan B, ect.... There is a big back log of orders with the 787 and AS probably has some muscle to get them at a good price and may get delivery priority but there is a huge advantage of getting HA that has all the boxes checked. Who else could be partner with that the DOJ would be close to approving that has widebodies? There should be a HNL widebody fence. DM said in a pilot call (paraphased) that it would take nearly 10 years to build up the wide body flying that HA could give us. My personal opinion is that if this doesn't go through then the MAX 10 will be our biggest plane for a long time. That's just my thoughts and the antimerger dudes have a few valid points. But from me, I hope to get this finished and we welcome our HA brothers and sisters.

MinRest

Using sensitive company information to make stock market purchases with?

So are we basically admitting to insider trading now too?

LonesomeSky

I think we can look at Alaska's strengths and weaknesses and guess at strategies for success, but making specific predictions is a fools game.

Some ways Alaska can come out a winner:

1) Turn HNL into an efficient hub and run larger (full) planes inter‐island. A full Alaska 737‐900 has a substantially lower cost per seat mile than a half full Southwest 737‐800. Also, leisure travelers are less sensitive to hub transfers than they are sensitive to price. An efficient HNL hub will mean lower ticket prices for vacationing families. We can continue to charge premium prices for some direct flights (stuff like PDX-OGG) but we can also fill A330s with Costco package families to HNL and then use them to fill larger planes inter-island. Southwest cant compete with that. We can be premium and discount at the same time. We can use every one of those precious Hawaii gates (I'm talking all the islands) to its maximum potential.

2) Run Delta out of Seattle (or put up the strongest possible fight)... sounds crazy, right? Next time you're taxing through Seattle look at alaska's operation vs Delta's. Alaska is much larger. We have much more feed than delta. All we need are some wide-bodies and a willingness to bleed on international routes for a few years. Seattle is already Delta's least profitable hub because they dont have enough feed for their widebodies because they don't have enough gates and/or their feed is RJs instead of narrow bodies. We can turn the screws on them if we accept some short-term pain. Seattle is a growing city with an airport that can't keep up. The law of supply and demand turns every Seattle gate into a money printing press. Big planes mean more passengers pumping through limited gates. In Seattle, you must up-gauge or die trying. Imagine SEA in 2030, Max10s and 787s, it'll be standing room only in the terminal. If it isn't alaska who builds these efficiencies, someone else (delta) will.

3) Leverage premium gate space. A combined Alaska Hawaiian will have the highest ratio of premium gates of any airline. By "premium gate" I mean gates that are impossible to get, places like Orange County, Kona, Burbank, DCA, San Diego, etc. These airports are all honey pots and Alaska Hawaiian fly to more honey pots by percentage than anyone else. It's a lot easier to make a buck on San Diego to Orlando than it is to be profitable on Phoenix to Orlando. One has restricted competition and the other has unlimited room for spirit and frontier and breeze. These places all have a similar dynamic as Seattle, growing demand and airports that can't keep up. We will run larger planes to these airports and see increasing profits.

Some ways Alaska can lose:

1) A failure of courage. Building an international airline will be expensive and we will make mistakes. Any new international route will bleed money, huge money, for a year or two. Historically, Alaska's board hasn't shown the intestinal fortitude to take on these sorts of adventures. I'm cautiously optimistic that Ben will lead the charge and he'll find that the entire employee group happily follows him into the breach, BOD be damned. But, that would mean the entire financial philosophy of leadership would need to change and I have my doubts. For now, I'll keep low in trench and wait to hear from Ben's bugle, or not.

2) A failure of branding. Good branding is a financial tailwind. Alaska continually ignores branding. Our product doesn't match our competencies as a highly profitable, tech-forward, caring, West Coast airline. We look like something else: a tired regional bank or discount hotel. We're a natural blonde who dyes her hair mouse brown. The curtains don't match the carpet in the most stupid possible way. Alaska needs a branding makeover, like one of those nerd to princess movies.