toolowterrain

Long post, but hear me out. Buckle Up.

I like to look at quantitive data, not speculation. (this is not company confidential or proprietary data, one can look at the AA public master timetables and gather this on your own


You mentioned that Dec 2016 had lower departures. Do we?

[all these departures are not actual, but rather what was assigned to AWAC by AA]

Dec 2016 Departures: 10,956

-compared to-

Dec 2015 Departures:13,348
Dec 2014 Departures:13,434
Dec 2013 Departures:13,594
Dec 2012 Departures:14,143

A similar trend was observed this summer with:

July 2016 Departures: 12,917

-compared to-

Jul 2015 Departures:14,917
Jul 2014 Departures:14,364
Jul 2013 Departures:14,725
Jul 2012 Departures:14,931

#datarules

So what can we conclude from this small representative sample? We are, beyond a reasonable doubt, losing flying at an alarming rate. December 2016, year over year, is a net loss 2,392 departures. Think about how astronomical that number is.... Just as a (very) rough estimate assuming an even company wide 4leg, 2leg, 4leg, 4leg 4-day paring that's 14 legs. 2,392 / 14= ~170 'parings'. 170 / 4 (typical parings in a month) = ~42 less lines IN ONE MONTH. Now obviously all things are not always equal, but we can conservatively say somewhere between 15-25 less lines year over year for the month of DEC.

What does that mean?

AWAC is the only (I think) actively shrinking airline in the regional industry, along with no future. Others like Envoy may be losing A/C, but are replacing them with large RJ's (even if resulting with a net loss of A/C, their future prospects are clearer).

AWAC management is quietly attempting to downsize the airline without anyone noticing, probably down to 30-40 airplanes. You see, if people leave on their own, there will be no need to furlough. However, the dynamics in the industry today are quite different than what I am sure they would have hoped for. Since everyone is hiring, people might leave faster than their ramp down plan timeline. And they most certainly did not predict F/O's to be leaving in masses which totally collapses their little pyramid scheme. In a perfect scenario, only captains would be leaving, which even if downsizing, would keep upgrades coming, movement happening and everyone would be 'happy' using it as a stepping stone.

However, this 'perfect' scenario is failing because:
1) F/O are leaving and in a hurry.
2) There is no movement because of #1. This causes the upgrade conveyor to stop
3) It is a pilots market, which means there is accelerated attrition on both sides
4) Unforeseen pay raises / bonuses in the industry have placed us at the bottom list (Hi Mesa!)
5) Our lack of future combined with all of the above makes us unattractive to Nh's

My personal opinions:

My biggest concern is that if this attrition continues (and I mean specifically F/O attrition), which is inevitable, with no significant NH's, AWAC will be forced to park airplanes at a faster rate than planned. To cover F/O's they WILL have to downgrade.

So the moral of the story kids is: if you are an Junior to Mid-Senior F/O you will NOT upgrade unless you stick around another 5-7 years. If you are a Junior-ish Captain, I tip my hat to you because I foresee downgrades. Interestingly, it's almost a cath-22 because one they start downgrading, you can say bye-bye to any potential new hires in today's regional environment. It's a loose-loose.

It is downright despicable what management is doing, and for this reason I am not afraid to 'put on blast', publicly, the company I once actively defended. Are Christine Deister (CEO) and Bob Frisch (COO) dead or are they retired, or in the Maldives? Are they being held hostage by Parker in the basement? I only ask because for a company that is in shambles with morale down to about 0% they sure are quiet. We do not see them, they do not communicate to their employees, they are just ghosts.


I am just glad I am not in both of those groups that will be most hurt. Good luck to all of us.

whoooooooocares

Maybe. But maybe the company doesn't require me to have a cell phone. I don't care about status quo. There can be no repercussions if we were to all stop using our phones for this. I pay the bill every month. I can use my phone for whatever I deem appropriate or necessary.

Fleron270

Great analysis. I believe that the decrease in flying is directly related to the 6 aircraft parked/6 lines of flying lost. Earlier this year, Bob Frisch stated that we could park up to 4 (IIRC) more aircraft in the spring. Is there a minimum number we must maintain for AA?

CLT Guy

How many pilots do you have now, total? Active?

WhiskeyDelta

Established practice does not have to be behavior required by the company. ALPA cannot tell their members to stop using your cell phone nor can there be anyone who leads the charge. Each individual pilot has to make that decision. Same goes for a company-wide drive to not pick up OT.

squib

Or don't if you don't want to. It's really not that hard.

squib

There's no way that's public knowledge.

Fast forward to summer 2017 and there's a 2 year agreement with AA for 30 -200's.

FODhopper

You said what we are all thinking...I am a very senior FO...all I get asked by everyone is "You must be close to upgrade" At a normal airline I would have upgraded 18 months ago..now I probably would be in the class behind the current upgrade class that doesn't have a upgrade class date right now.

Because I see the NHs coming in...I know that I won't upgrade for another six months, maybe even longer...it's like I'm working at an airline in a parallel universe...the only one that has movement like they have furloughed and we are all stuck in the positions we were in when the music stopped.

A year ago I said no way am I leaving...I'm in a good place...now it's not even worth staying since he airline will shut down three months before my 401K is fully vested. How sad is that? This is the kind of calculus we are making.

WhiskeyDelta

Are you implying you'll stay just because you want your 401k to fully vest? I would think the long term benefit of moving on would be more than this. Besides, assuming you stay until within 12 months of your vesting date, you'll still get to keep 80% of what the company has contributed. That'll still be good money. Also, if you do stay until the end, I would assume everyone would be fully vested since the airline closing down is outside of your control. That would be a good question to ask on the AW forum as I know the 401k administrator does answer questions on there. Or send him an email.

StrykerB21

Quoted for an answer cause I wanna know too.